• The 2024 Lok Sabha elections presented a sobering reality for the BJP, which appears to fall short of the majority mark of 272, despite NDA set to form a third-term government.
• This contrasts sharply with the BJP’s performance in 2019 when it secured 303 seats independently, with the NDA crossing the 350-seat threshold.
• The BJP, which had set a target of 370 seats, is leading in 243 seats (at the time of going to process), falling short of the majority mark of 272.
• The Congress is on track to win over 95 seats — a jump from 52 that it won in 2019.

What now

• If the BJP gets to form the next government, it will be with the help of its allies, chiefly Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, which is currently ahead in 16 seats in Andhra Pradesh and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) which is ahead on 14 seats in Bihar, as of now.
• As per reports, both Naidu and Nitish have pledged their support to the BJP, but until all the results are out nothing can be certain.
• The results most certainly have brought back the coalition era which was marked by surprises and flip-flops.

INDIA shining

• The INDIA bloc has surprised many in the Lok Sabha elections by posing a formidable challenge to the BJP-led NDA.
• The most shocking surprises have been Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, where the bloc is leading. It also made significant gains in Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar and Jharkhand.
• During a press conference, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge hailed the results as a mandate against Prime Minister Modi and described it as both a “political and moral defeat for the BJP”.
• Besides a possibly lower seat count, the NDA is also facing a reduced vote share. While in 2019 it won over 50%, the ruling alliance is hovering around the 46% share of votes. The INDIA bloc, on the other hand, gained around 41% vote share. More here

• Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari, Anurag Thakur and Dharmendra Pradhan were among the BJP’s candidates who won with huge margins in their respective seats.
• While the Samajwadi Party surprised with a better-than-expected performance, both Akhilesh Yadav and wife Dimple won from the seats they contested.
• Rahul Gandhi won both in the Wayanad and Rae Bareli constituencies in Kerala and Uttar Pradesh respectively. He said he wasn’t sure which seat he would vacate.

Notable losses

• Former Union ministers Smriti Irani, Arjun Munda, Ajay Mishra Teni and Kailash Chaudhary were among the 13 Union ministers who lost.
• Irani had won the Amethi seat after defeating Rahul Gandhi in 2019, lost to Congress candidate and a close aide of the Gandhi family Kishori Lal Sharma.
• In Kerala’s Thiruvananthapuram seat, former minister of state for electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar lost to Congress’s Shashi Tharoor.
• Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Ajay Mishra Teni, whose son was arrested in connection with the violence in Lakhimpur Kheri in October 2021, lost to Samajwadi Party’s Utkarsh Verma.
• Accused in multiple sexual assault cases, Prajwal Revanna lost in Hassan despite the case being filed after voting had concluded in his constituency. His uncle and JD(S) chief HD Kumaraswamy won in the Mandya constituency.

Very close calls

• In three seats in Maharashtra, the results went down to the wire. BJP’s Pankaja Munde lost by 6,585 votes in Beed.
• Congress’s Shobha Bachhav and BJP’s Shubhash Bhamre were neck and neck till late in the night in the Dhule constituency.
• In the Mumbai North West seat, Shiv Sena’s Ravindra Waikar defeated Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Amol Kirtikar by 48 votes. Uddhav Thackeray said they’ll challenge the verdict

Behind bars

• The victory of two candidates — Engineer Rashid and Amritpal Singh — raises the question of how they will take oath as MPs given they’re in jail.
• Amritpal Singh won from the Khadoor Sahib seat, while Sheikh Abdul Rashid, won from Baramulla. Both are facing terror-related charges.

• A day after the Maldives barred the entry of Israeli passport holders, the Israeli embassy in New Delhi issued a statement on ‘X’ promoting “some beautiful and amazing Indian beaches where Israeli tourists are warmly welcomed and treated with utmost hospitality,” highlighting destinations like Lakshadweep, Kerala, Andaman and Goa.

A ban

• On Sunday, Maldives announced a cabinet decision to ban Israeli passport holders due to the war in Gaza.
• The office of Maldives’ pro-China president, in a release, said: “Mohamed Muizzu, following a recommendation from cabinet, has resolved to impose a ban on Israeli passports. The cabinet decision includes amending necessary laws to prevent Israeli passport holders from entering the Maldives and establishing a cabinet subcommittee to oversee these efforts.”

Why

• The advisory and ban come in the midst of the Gaza conflict, which began with Hamas-initiated attacks on Israel.
• The conflict has resulted in significant casualties on both sides and has heightened tensions globally.

Tourism stats

• Despite the lack of diplomatic ties between Israel and the Maldives since 1974, Israelis have been permitted to visit the country, with tourism figures indicating significant Israeli visitor numbers.
• In 2023, over 10,000 Israelis visited the Maldives.

Maldives’ woes

• Since the start of the year, Maldives has faced negative publicity regarding tourism.
• Anti-India tweets by some Maldivian politicians followed a visit by PM Modi to Lakshadweep, resulting in the Maldives falling off the bucket list for Indian travellers.

PM Modi’s endorsement

• During his visit on January 4, PM Modi praised Lakshadweep’s beauty and tranquillity on ‘X’, stating it inspired him to work harder for India’s welfare.
• Retweeting Modi’s post, Israel’s Consul General to Midwest India, Mumbai, Kobbi Shoshani, remarked, “Thanks to Maldives govt’s decision Israelis can now explore the beautiful beaches of #Lakshadweep.”

Impact on Indians

• Given Israel’s close ties with India, the ban may not be well-received by Indian travellers, whom the Maldives has been trying to attract again after “Boycott Maldives” trended in India earlier this year. More here

• The Sensex and Nifty fell over 5% after national poll results showed that the BJP was winning fewer-than-predicted seats.
• The Sensex nosedived 4,389.73 points or 5.74% to close at 72,079.05.
• The NSE Nifty tumbled 1,379.40 points or 5.93% to settle at 21,884.50.
• As many as 3,349 stocks declined on the BSE, while 2,438 stocks declined on the NSE.
• Reportedly, equity investors suffered a massive loss of Rs 31 lakh crore.
• On Monday, the markets rose over 3% to hit record highs on the back of economic data and exit poll predictions.
• Market has not crashed like this since March 2020 when the world woke up to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Worst hit

• The Nifty Bank index which tracks 12 banking stocks, fell 7.95% while the PSU Bank index that tracks public sector banks closed 15% lower.
• Metals and realty stocks were also down by 10% and 9%, respectively.
• NTPC, SBI, L&T and Power Grid were among the stocks that fell more than 10%.
• Many companies that are part of the Adani group fell close to 20%.

What experts said

• The BJP, which has dominated Indian politics for a decade, is seen as a pro-industry party.
• Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said that the unexpected poll result sparked a wave of fear selling in the domestic market, reversing recent rallies.
• “Despite this, the market maintains its expectation of stability within the coalition, led by BJP as the major election winner, thereby mitigating substantial downside in the medium-term,” he said.
• “Markets believe that the reformist approach, which was a hallmark of the previous two terms, might take a backseat in the third term. However, our sense is that it is still early to jump to conclusions and should ideally wait for a clearer picture,” said Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox. More here

• The exit polls for the Lok Sabha 2024 elections were way off the mark this time, particularly regarding the Opposition INDIA bloc, which was anticipated to face a defeat but secured nearly 230 seats on counting day.

Predictions

• Exit polls published on June 1 had projected a sweeping victory for the BJP-led NDA, with some predicting over 350 seats for the ruling alliance, with some like News 24-Today’s Chanakya forecasting a remarkable 400 seats.
• Various exit polls offered divergent forecasts, for instance, India Today-Axis My India predicted 361-401 seats for the NDA and 131-166 seats for the Opposition, while ABP-C Voter forecasted 353-383 seats for the ruling alliance and 152-182 seats for the INDIA.
• The Times Now-ETG Research’s exit poll gave 358 and 152 seats to the NDA and the INDIA bloc, respectively.

Past performances

• Exit polls have had a mixed track record in capturing the electoral outcomes in India.
• In 2019, while the average of 13 exit polls forecasted the NDA to secure 306 seats and the UPA 120, the NDA’s actual performance surpassed expectations, securing 353 seats in total, with the BJP winning 303 seats and the Congress securing 52.
• The 2014 polls were largely successful in gauging public sentiment, correctly forecasting a robust showing by the BJP-led NDA, which secured a majority with 282 seats.
• However, in the 2009 and 2004 elections, exit polls showed notable disparities from actual outcomes, with the UPA surpassing projections in 2009 with 262 seats and the 2004 polls failing to predict the NDA’s defeat by the UPA. For more

• Regional parties have made notable gains in states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
• In Bihar, the JD(U) leads on 15 seats, while in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena (UBT) leads on 11 seats. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP faces a significant setback, leading in just 32 of 80 seats, with the Samajwadi Party leading in 37 seats.

Rise of Rahul Gandhi

• Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s south-north Bharat Jodo Yatra, and subsequent east-west Nyay Yatra seems to have had a major positive impact for the party. Rahul, who is contesting from Wayanad in Kerala and Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh, seems to win both seats with large margins.

BJP gains in Odisha

• The BJP made significant strides in Odisha, leading in 19 of the 21 seats, while the BJD leads on just one seat. This marks a significant shift from 2019, where the BJD won 12 seats and the BJP 8.

No impact of Ram temple

• The pran pratishtha of Ram temple in Ayodhya was seen by experts as a clincher for the BJP in UP and beyond. The strategy, however, seems to have not at all worked for the saffron party.

Breaking parties did not help

• Maharashtra seems to have given a big thumbs down to the Mahayuti’s ‘jod tod’ ki politics in the state. The INDIA bloc comprising Shiv Sena (UBT), Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the Congress, appear to be leading.

• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif embarked on a five-day official visit to China, aimed at bolstering bilateral ties, particularly under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as both nations seek to deepen cooperation.

Timing

• Sharif’s visit to Beijing, a traditional first stop for Pakistani leaders, occurs amidst Pakistan’s severe economic crisis, with low foreign exchange reserves.
• As per the estimates of the World Bank, Pakistan, reeling under a chronic debt cycle, owes USD 131 billion to external creditors, of which USD 46 billion is owed to China.

Agenda

• The visit is expected to mark the formal launch of the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a crucial component of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• Pakistan seeks to broaden the focus of CPEC-II beyond infrastructure and energy projects to include agriculture, industry, information technology, and science.

India’s opposition

• India opposes CPEC due to its route through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, but Pakistan and China continue cooperation under the initiative, bringing significant investments and development to Pakistan.

Financial assistance

• Pakistan is seeking fresh financial assistance from China to bolster its dwindling sovereign reserves and support its annual budget, while also aiming to negotiate debt restructuring to address mounting liabilities owed to China, underscoring the urgency of securing Chinese support.

Beijing’s security concerns

• Beijing’s preconditions for launching a second Zarb-e-Azb military campaign against militant groups, particularly as these groups have increasingly targeted Chinese-linked facilities in Pakistan.
• For instance, Pakistan witnessed nearly 250 terror attacks in the first quarter of 2024, including three major attacks targeting Chinese interests between March 16 and March 26, which left five Chinese nationals dead.

Financial obligations

• In addition to security guarantees, Beijing demands debt repayment, improved forex reserves, and resolution of IPP payments before committing further funds, while Pakistan’s $15.36 billion debt to Chinese IPPs poses challenges to its energy policies.
• Consequently, the extent of Beijing’s commitments is likely to depend on Islamabad’s concrete actions to meet these security and financial requirements.