This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Fourth-round play continues Monday at the French Open. The bottom half of the women’s draw could be in for some shakeups Monday after chalk held up in the top half of the draw, with four top-eight seeds advancing to the quarterfinals Sunday. All of the top men’s contenders remain in the draw, but a top-five seed could be in for a stiff test Monday.
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All men’s singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women’s singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players’ previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Elina Svitolina (+235) vs. Elena Rybakina
Svitolina has been the better French Open performer over the years and holds a 2-1 head-to-head edge over Rybakina, though they haven’t played since the Olympics in 2021. Rybakina has had some good results on clay but prefers faster surfaces, as she’s in the Round of 16 at the French Open for only the second time in six tries, having reached the quarterfinals in 2021. Svitolina’s searching for her fifth French Open quarterfinal appearance and second in a row. Rybakina has been extremely efficient on break points, converting 14 of 20 in this tournament, but if her luck turns and some of the bounces in key moments go Svitolina’s way, that could be enough to open the door for an upset.
Emma Navarro (+255) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Navarro announced her arrival as a contender on the WTA Tour with a win over Sabalenka in Indian Wells. Now, the 23-year-old American will try to replicate that result on an even bigger stage. She doesn’t have an extensive history of success on clay, but Navarro’s athleticism works well on this surface, and she has been a completely different player compared to previous years en route to a 33-12 record in 2024. In addition to her earlier win over Sabalenka, Navarro can also draw confidence from her 7-6 (5), 7-6 (3) third-round win over 12th-ranked Madison Keys here, in which Navarro snapped Keys’ six-match winning streak and played her best in the biggest moments. Navarro’s defense and transition game successfully countered Sabalenka’s big hitting on the slow hard courts of Indian Wells, so the underdog has a proven blueprint to follow in this rematch against the world No. 2.
Honorable Mention
Elina Avanesyan (+265) vs. Jasmine Paolini
Casper Ruud (-250) vs. Taylor Fritz
These two are separated by only five spots in the rankings, but the seventh-ranked Ruud is the far more accomplished clay-court player, as he’s attempting to reach the French Open final for the third consecutive year. The 12th-ranked Fritz is into the French Open fourth round for the first time in his career, and he came into this tournament with a mediocre 7-7 record at Roland Garros. The American’s run has been aided by a favorable draw up to this point, as Fritz has yet to face a seed but has still dropped four sets in three matches. The drastic increase in level of competition will likely prove too much for Fritz to overcome.
Novak Djokovic (-700) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Djokovic was pushed to a fifth set by the talented Lorenzo Musetti in the third round, but this should be a far easier matchup for the No. 1 seed. Cerundolo is a good mover and can grab control of points with his big forehand, but he lacks some of the creativity and feel that made Musetti such a dangerous opponent. With rallies likely to fall into more predictable patterns here, Djokovic should have little trouble exerting control in this match against the 27th-ranked Cerundolo, who came into the French Open with a sub-.500 record in 2024.
Honorable Mention
Mirra Andreeva (-425) vs. Varvara Gracheva
Alex de Minaur (+160) vs. Daniil Medvedev
This is de Minaur’s deepest French Open run to date, but it’s just the latest new height reached by the 25-year-old Aussie in 2024, as he broke into the top 10 for the first time earlier this year and is generally enjoying a career-best season. Medvedev leads their head-to-head 6-2, but their recent encounters have been another indication of de Minaur’s improvement, as they have split four meetings since late in 2022. This will be their first battle on clay, where both players have struggled relative to other surfaces over the years. Expect plenty of long points between two of the players with the best court coverage on the ATP Tour, but with de Minaur playing more confidently than ever before on this surface, he could figure out how to win the majority of the extended rallies in the biggest moments.
