Game 5 of the WCF in Minnesota tonight. The Timberwolves shot 42.7%, 41.2% and 50.6% in the first three games of the series. In Game 4, they drained 52.7% of their shot attempts. Dereck Lively II ($5,800) missed most of Game 3 and all of Game 4. Things that make you go hmmm. Every game in this series has been competitive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has MIN -4.5 over DAL at home. The total is 209.5. MIN was 37-15 at home during the regular season and are 3-4 during the playoffs. Dallas was 25-16 on the road during the regular season and are 6-2 during the playoffs. Luka Doncic ($14,000), Mike Conley ($6,600) and Dereck Lively II ($5,800) are questionable. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $600K Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (DAL vs MIN)
Rudy Gobert ($11,400 CP): I had some concern about Gobert losing some playing time in Game 4 due to defensive adjustments, especially after playing only 29 minutes in Game 3. Those were unwarranted as Minnesota stayed true to their MO with Gobert playing 39 minutes. He is the anchor of the defense and, while he likely won’t have a ceiling game, he should provide around 30 DKFP. The price also allows one to fit both Doncic and Edwards into the lineup, and I don’t want to fade either.
Jaden Hardy ($2,400): Hardy won’t play more than 12 minutes, but when he’s on the court, he’s hucking and chucking. The usage rate has been 34%, 30.1% and 41.1% over the last three games. He won’t do much outside score but he has contributed 15.25, 9.0 and 13.25 DKFP. Most will likely utilize Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($2,600) for value since he could play 20 minutes, but he’s a low-usage player who has put up 13, 10 and 11.25 DKFP over the last three games.
Luka Doncic ($14,000): Doncic is the most expensive player on the slate, but raw points matter. He has the highest floor/ceiling combo and can put up a “have-to-have-it” score. Barring foul trouble or injury, Doncic is going to play over 40 minutes and garner a usage rate in the 35% range. He will more than likely triple-double and has gone for at least 60 DKFP in each of the last six games. Click the button, get on your knees, raise your arms in the arm and sing HalleLuka!
Anthony Edwards ($11,800): Edwards doesn’t have Doncic’s ceiling, but the floor is pretty, pretty high. He’s gone for over 50 DKFP in three of the four games this series. Like Doncic, he’s going to play over 40 minutes and the usage rate has been 40.6% and 43.5% over the last two games. We know he has that dawg in him and there’s no doubt that it will be let out on the home court in Minnesota.
Naz Reid ($5,400): It’s tough to fade Reid because he can light up the nets on any given night and the price is more than palatable. That said, he is so dependent on scoring and the playing time has dissipated a bit. After playing 24 minutes in the opener, he received 32 and 29 minutes in the next two games but played 20 minutes in Game 4. Minutes are half the battle, and even if he’s out there, the shot still has to fall.
This has been a tightly contested series. The loss of Lively has been a big deal, but I think he returns tonight. I don’t like him enough to insert him into a lineup, but I do like him to make an impact on the outcome of the game, at both ends of the court. I’m feeling one of those magical Luka games tonight. Edwards is going to do his thing as well, but in the end, Dallas advances to meet Boston in the Finals.
Final Score: Mavericks 103, Timberwolves 99
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $600K Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (DAL vs MIN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
