The Pacers could be up 2-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals, but we don’t live in a woulda-coulda-shoulda world. As a result, the Celtics are on the verge of sweeping the series and advancing to the NBA Finals. Things won’t be easy, though, as the Indiana crowd will likely be a fervent group and Jrue Holiday ($7,000 Showdown) could join Kristaps Porzingis in street clothes. Tyrese Haliburton ($9,600) is unfortunately questionable again nursing a hamstring injury. These are important injuries because if Haliburton returns, the values of Andrew Nembhard ($9,300) and T.J. McConnell ($9,000) subside while Payton Pritchard ($3,600) would likely start and be an excellent source of value if Holiday is out. Holiday did participate in the morning shootaround, so it looks like he will able to go since he’s just dealing with a non-COVID illness. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BOS -7.5 over IND on the road. The total is 222.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (BOS vs IND)
T.J. McConnell/Andrew Nembhard ($9,000/$9,300 CP): If Haliburton plays, then the values of both McConnell and Nembhard will decrease. That said, they would both still be viable options, but the access to a ceiling game would be unlikely. If he’s out, big games are within the range of outcomes again. In Game 3, Nembhard played 40 minutes and garnered a 29.1% usage rate, putting up 51.5 DKFP. In Game 1, the usage rate was only 13.4%. McConnell received 30 minutes and had a 28.5% usage rate, going for 45.25 DKFP. The usage rate for McConnell doesn’t deviate too much because he leads the bench unit in most scenarios. Both players are priced close to each other. I’m operating under the assumption that Haliburton doesn’t play. He missed 10 games in the regular season due to a hamstring injury and, while it’s an elimination game in the playoffs, his long-term health is paramount.
Derrick White ($11,700 CP): White has been consistent in this series from a DKFP perspective, going for 38.8, 43 and 42.5 DKFP. The beauty of White’s game is that he contributes a little something something in every category, which provides a relatively high floor. In Game 1, he shot only 5-of-13 from the floor, but contributed six rebounds, nine assists, two steals and a block. In Game 3, he again shot poorly, converting 3-of-11, but he produced five rebounds, seven assists and four blocks. When everything clicks, he does have a 50-DKFP upside.
Jaylen Brown ($9,800): I usually eschew Brown because he’s so scoring dependent, but it’s hard to deny the price, usage rate and scoring prowess. In the three games, the usage rate has been 29.2%, 43% and 29.6%. The rebounds and assists haven’t been robust, but he did grab seven and dish out five dimes in Game 1. It’s been the defensive stats that have been somewhat of a surprise, as he’s racked up five steals and two blocks. Those are gravy and could provide 50 DKFP if everything breaks right. Tatum is the better play, but the $2,200 discount helps with roster construction.
Pascal Siakam ($9,200): Insert Spiderman meme, as Brown and Siakam are mirror images of each other. Both are scoring dependent, although Brown contributes a little more on the defensive end of the court. The usage rate for Siakam has been 28.4%, 32.7% and 25.8%. Siakam will likely grab more rebounds and dish out more assists, but Brown has the higher ceiling in terms of scoring. Siakam has scored 22, 28 and 24 points. He will likely end up in the 30 DKPF range but has 50-DKFP upside.
Myles Turner ($8,000): Turner has gone 20/10 in two of the three games. In the game he failed to do so, he only played 24 minutes due to blowout. The usage rate has been at least 20% in every game. Turner isn’t breaking defenders of the dribble. He spaces the floor, allowing for driving lanes and usually gets a ton of good looks because the bigs can’t get out to him. He hasn’t blocked a shot in the last two games, but I don’t expect that to happen again.
Ben Sheppard ($3,000): If Haliburton is out, Sheppard could get the start again, as he did in Game 3. It’s tough to recommend fading Sheppard because he’s so cheap, but the upside is so limited. He put up 7.25 DKFP in 26 minutes while garnering a 2.1% usage rate. I’m biased because I prefer a more balanced lineup without getting too scrubby.
The Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA all season. There have been times when the focus has been lacking and they’ve played down to their opponent. It’s happened during this series, but Boston was able to focus when it mattered and were able to win all three games. I think they will be in business mode tonight.
Final Score: Celtics 122, Pacers 110
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (BOS vs IND)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
