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Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and the Celtics look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Pacers on Saturday, as Indiana tries to scratch and claw its way back into the Western Conference Finals with Tyrese Haliburton banged up. Boston is heavily favored to win the game (-275) and series (-10000), but Sporting News’ betting team has identified multiple high-value wagers for Game 3.
Indy was seconds away from winning Game 1 in Boston, until Brown heroically nailed a corner three to force overtime and allow Tatum to do his thing. Then, after the Pacers got out to a strong first-quarter lead over the Celts in Game 2, Brown went into takeover mode and got himself a 40-burger en route to a 126-110 shellacking.
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Can Pascal Siakam and the Pacers bounce back at home and make this into a competitive series? Or, will the Celtics land a critical blow and go up 3-0?
Let’s get to the top BetMGM value bets for Game 3 of the Celtics vs. Pacers Eastern Conference Finals, including the best spread, over/under, and player prop wagers.
The Celtics have been largely dominant throughout the playoffs, going a remarkable 10-2 and getting off to great starts nearly every game. They lost the first quarter 27-25 in Game 2, then caught fire and outscored Indiana 101-83 the rest of the way. Now, with Tyrese Haliburton’s hampered once again by the same hamstring that forced him to miss time earlier this season, Boston has a prime opportunity to land an early-game haymaker on Rick Carlisle’s squad.
Before Game 2, the Celtics had lost just two first quarters the entire postseason. Their first-quarter plus-minus in the 2024 NBA Playoffs: +51. That’s an average margin of +4.25, well over the 1.5 Boston is favored to win the first frame by on Saturday. The Celtics have already had a couple wakeup calls in this series — the entirety of Game 1, and the first quarter of Game 2 — don’t expect them to sleepwalk out of the gates with Haliburton banged up.
FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Celtics 30, Pacers 26 — Boston wins the first quarter (-150) and covers the -1.5 spread (-105), and the first-quarter score finishes OVER the projected total of 57.5 (-105).
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The Pacers’ offense has been fantastic all season, ranking No. 1 in scoring (123.3 points per game) and No. 2 in both pace (101.7) and offensive rating (121.0). However, Haliburton is the captain of this aggressive speedboat — and when he’s out or banged up, Indiana takes a big step back offensively.
Across the 13 games Haliburton missed during the regular season, Indy played four games against teams that wound up finishing in the top four of the Eastern or Western Conference (Boston, Minnesota, and Denver twice). The Pacers went 0-4 across those four contests, averaging just 107.8 points and getting outscored by an average of 20.5 points per game.
Saturday will reveal a lot about the Pacers’ heart, as a young squad down 2-0 with its best player hurting can easily feel defeated before the opening tip against a 62-win team. Don’t expect any white flags to be waved in Indy — but don’t expect any scoring explosions or victory laps from the home team, either.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Celtics 111, Pacers 105 — Boston wins (-275) but Indiana just barely covers the +6.5 spread (-105), and the final score finishes UNDER the projected total of 222.5 (-110).
White has been a massive part of the Celtics’ success all season long, and he has averaged 18.3 points per game this postseason. He shot poorly in Game 1, however, so his scoring projections for Games 2 and 3 have both yielded plenty of value.
With Kristaps Porzingis still sidelined, White’s solid usage remained strong in Game 2 despite shooting under 39 percent from the floor in the opening game. He has taken 45 shots over the past three games, and he has totaled 13-plus attempts in eight of Boston’s past 10 playoff games.
This same OVER was listed as a Sporting News best bet ahead of Game 2, and White finished with 23 on 8-of-15 shooting and 4-of-8 from long range. Go right back to the well and pound DWhite to easily reach 16 points once again on Saturday.
Nembhard has been a beast in the high screen-and-roll game, cooking the Knicks and now the Celtics when big men switch onto him. He shoots well from outside, midrange, and at the basket, and his hyper-efficiency should buy him increased usage with Haliburton either out or limited due to the hamstring.
There’s no reason why Rick Carlisle doesn’t give Nembhard way more than 10-12 shots per game. The 24-year-old is shooting 56.9 percent over Indiana’s past 14 playoff games, and he has bested this over/under scoring total in five straight contests and 12 of the past 14 overall. It’s an easy smash.
Rick Carlisle should utilize his hyper-efficient guard way more often, as he’s shooting 57.6 percent over his past 13 games. He has also bested this point total in four straight contests and in eight of the past 14 overall. Smash it!
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Game | Time | Moneyline | Spread | O/U |
| Celtics @ Pacers |
8:30 pm (ABC) |
BOS -275; IND +220 |
BOS -6.5 (-115) |
222.5 |
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