This is an uncomfortable bet to place considering Anthony Edwards has scored 36, 43, and 40 points in his last three playoff games. He had a monster Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets, but with his total trading at 28.5 on Monday, I’m playing the Under.
In these meaningful playoff games, Overs aren’t typically given away to star players who are as hot as Edwards is. It doesn’t mean he won’t go Over the total, but for the most part, you’re likely to see your edges on the Under. That’s why his total has moved four points higher.
Against the Suns before this three-game stretch, Ant’s scoring prop was trading at 24.5. Following this recent outburst, we’re not seeing it trade at 28.5. On top of that, this is a much different series. A game against the Nuggets isn’t likely to yield as many points as a game against the Suns.
This will be uncomfortable because Edwards will still get his points; it’s not like his minutes or usage will be diminished. I just think the 28.5-point mark is too high from a probability standpoint, specifically against Denver.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have other offensive advantages they can exploit outside of Edwards. The two-man game of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert puts a lot of pressure on Nikola Jokic as a defender.
Additionally, the Timberwolves are looking to exploit Jamal Murray‘s defense, which means the ball will be in Mike Conley’s hands plenty as well. Edwards is projected to score 26.8 points on Monday, which allows us to price the Under at -153, but it’s available at Caesars at -101.
Anthony Edwards prop: Under 28.5 points (-101 at Caesars)
O.G. Anunoby played 141 minutes in the final three games against the 76ers and recorded zero assists. Yes, you read that correctly: 141 minutes over three games and zero assists. So, as we head into Game 1 of this second-round series, naturally, I’m playing the Over 1.5 assists at (+140) for Anunoby.
When the odds for Knicks-Sixers Game 6 were released, Anunoby was trading at 1.5 (+135) for the Over on his assist prop. I was interested to see if he would whiff again in Game 6 and go Under the total. Would the adjustment to this number continue? Guess what — it did, and that’s why I’m hitting the button.
Despite this being a completely different series, opponent, and matchup, Anunoby’s assist prop continues its adjustment that we saw during the 76ers series.
Anunoby was still collecting potential assists against the 76ers; in fact, his potential assists were higher than what we saw from him in the regular season: 3.0 per game compared to 2.6 in the regular season. They just weren’t converting for him.
A matchup against the Indiana Pacers compared to the 76ers is where the conversion of those potential assists could change. Against the 76ers, he had to deal with the rim protection of Joel Embiid altering shots at the rim and making potential assists convert at a lower rate. Embiid’s presence on the interior was forcing all of the Knicks’ assist props to adjust.
The thing is, his rim protection has forced this prop to trade at 1.5 (+140) for Anunoby, but now he’s facing the Pacers, who don’t have an Embiid protecting the rim. All of a sudden, a pass to Isaiah Hartenstein or Mitchell Robinson begins to convert at a higher rate.
Anunoby is projected to have 1.9 assists on Monday against the Pacers, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -126, but it is available at bet365 at +140.
OG Anunoby prop: Over 1.5 assists (+140 at bet365)
I know what you’re thinking: what a random assist prop, but I’ve actually played multiple McDaniels assist props this season and he’s been good to us throughout the regular season. A lot of attention for McDaniels is focused on his defense, and rightfully so, but this often causes his assists prop to fly under the radar.
For McDaniels, it’s pretty simple. He should make an All-NBA Defensive team this season and his ability to guard Jamal Murray is crucial to this series. Furthermore, he has the positional size where the Timberwolves can mix it up and leave McDaniels on Michael Porter Jr., with Edwards guarding Murray.
Jokic is matchup-proof, so to defeat the Nuggets, Minnesota needs to contain their other offensive weapons. McDaniels is crucial to this piece of the puzzle, and it’s why I think his minutes are very secure and could be elevated in this series. We can establish an edge on this price with a projection of only 30 minutes.
That feels like his floor in this series and he played 39 minutes in Game 1. We don’t need the elevated minutes for our edge, but his importance on the defensive end based on the matchups against the Nuggets has me believing that his minutes could be higher than usual.
McDaniels is projected to drop 1.7 dimes against the Nuggets on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at +106, but it’s available at bet365 at +155. That gives us a positive expected value of 24%.
Jaden McDaniels prop: Over 1.5 assists (+155 at bet365)
