Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me — it’s not!
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player’s opportunity, so you’ll need to ensure that you’re up to date with key injuries. Our projections — which are powered by numberFire — update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.
On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we’ll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day’s top plays at each position.
Let’s dive into today’s main slate on FanDuel.
Betting lines and totals via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and odds may change after this article is published.
Monday’s main slate on FanDuel features three games. For a full breakdown, see numberFire’s matchup heat map.
Jamal Murray ($8,900) — Jamal Murray is questionable, but I’d have a tough time fading him if he plays. Though he’s yet to have a true ceiling game, Murray’s still averaging 21.5 actual and 39.6 FanDuel points (FPs) per game this series. He’s attempted at least 21 shots in all four outings but is shooting a measly 38% overall. Still, he was a 48.1% shooter in the regular season, so a bounce back could be imminent against an LA team that’s surrendered the fourth-most FPPG to PGs this season, per FantasyPros. If Murray sits, Reggie Jackson ($3,800) would be a smash value play, but he’s also questionable.
C.J. McCollum ($7,900) — The efficiency has been lacking for C.J. McCollum, but the volume’s been rock-solid. McCollum’s attempted 22 shots in two of three games this series, and he’s led the team in points (17.0) and assists (5.7) per game. Granted, he’s yet to exceed 40 FPs, but that volume is hard to ignore on a light slate for guards.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,800) — I’m not sure how high the ceiling is for Jaime Jaquez Jr., but his floor should be sound in another home date with Boston. He’s exceeded 25 FPs in two of three games this series, playing 30+ minutes in every game. He’s dished out 4 assists twice — notable considering his assists prop is set at 3.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook with +112 odds for the over.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,600) — Despite an 8-for-20 shooting night in Game 3, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his best fantasy performance of the series. He notched 54.0 FPs thanks to 5 rebounds, 8 assists, a block, and 4 steals. SGA’s ability to fill up a box score keeps his floor high, but it’s fair to question the ceiling given his recent performances. He’s best reserved for larger tournaments; early roster-rate numbers from across the industry don’t project him to be heavily rostered.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,500) — How lucky are you feeling today? You’re answer should determine whether you play D’Angelo Russell in DFS tonight. After an absolute dud in Game 3, DLo bounced back with 21 actual and 33.8 FanDuel points last game. We saw him light it up in Game 2 (23 actual and 31.6 FanDuel points), too, so there’s certainly upside here. Our model likes his chances tonight, projecting him for 35.8 FPs. That makes him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate, regardless of position (5.51 FPs per $1,000).
LeBron James ($10,600) — LeBron James hasn’t had any trouble racking up the counting stats this series. Through four games, he’s averaging 27.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 3.3 stocks (steals plus blocks) per game. That’s resulted in an average of 52.4 FPPG, peaking with 63.6 in Game 2. With the Lakers down 3-1 and +235 moneyline underdogs, expect him to go out with a bang. In last year’s playoff finale against Denver, James went for 40 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists.
Jalen Williams ($7,800) — Jalen Williams is easily my favorite fantasy option on OKC tonight. J-Dub popped for 42.3 FPs in Game 3, finishing with 21 points and 9 rebounds despite missing the majority of the first quarter. He’s shooting 52.9% from the floor and 41.7% from three this series with the Pelicans not having much of an answer for him on defense. With a palatable mid-range salary, he’s a strong option at either SG or SF.
Luguentz Dort ($4,900) — Speaking of strong options at SG or SF, Luguentz Dort‘s role is hard to ignore at $4.9K. The lockdown defender has put opposing wing Brandon Ingram in the Dorture Chamber this series, holding him to 16.3 points per game on 41.5% shooting. That’s allowed Dort to see 35 minutes per game and helped spur him to exceed 20 FPs in two straight outings.
Jaylen Brown ($8,200) — Jaylen Brown is the only Celtic I’m interested in tonight, and it really boils down to his salary. Brown’s turned in 47.1 and 44.1 FPs the last two games, offering similar numbers as Jayson Tatum (42.1 and 47.2 FPs the last two) at a more manageable salary. It doesn’t hurt that he’s SG-eligible on a slate light on impact guards.
Austin Reaves ($6,600) — I wouldn’t roster both Austin Reaves and DLo but will be hard-pressed to exclude both from my single-entry lineups tonight. Reaves notably struggled during the first two games in Denver, but he bounced back with 44.5 and 30.2 FPs in LA. We saw him drop 34.1 and 37.4 FPs in the Mile High City during last year’s playoffs, so I wouldn’t fade him just because he’s on the road.
Nikola Jokic ($12,100) — Nikola Jokic continues to do Nikola Jokic things. After a lackluster Game 3 (only 55.5 FPs), the Joker bounced back with 33 points, 14 rebounds, and 14 assists in Game 4. He’s now exceeded 62 FPs in three of four games this series and offers the highest floor/ceiling combination on the slate. We project him for a slate-high 62.1 FPs, and that includes him racking up another triple-double. Jokic to record a triple-double is +115 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Michael Porter ($7,100) — I don’t know what the Lakers did to Michael Porter Jr., but it must’ve been pretty rude. MPJ has now faced LA seven times this season. He’s averaging 21.7 actual and 40.0 FanDuel points per game and has four double-doubles against them. He’s easily my favorite mid-range play on the slate and makes sense in any Lakers-Nuggets game stack. Porter Jr. to record a double-double is +155 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nikola Jovic ($5,000) — Nikola Jovic has been one of my go-to values in the First Round, and tonight’s no different. Jovic’s played 24-plus minutes and all three games thus far, notably exceeding 30 FPs in back-to-back games. He played 34 minutes in the Game 3 blowout, so we don’t need to worry about a downtick in playing time in the event of another lopsided loss, either. We project him for 24.8 FPs, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value at PF (4.96 FPs per $1,000).
Anthony Davis ($11,300) — Despite his team being down 3-1, Anthony Davis has been nothing short of incredible this series. He’s averaging 59.2 FPPG through four games, putting up 30.5 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game. He’s exceeded 40 minutes in three of four games and should again see another heavy workload in a win-or-go-home Game 5. AD’s a solid pivot off Jokic — especially if you buy into the Lakers keeping things close. LA is a 7.0-point ‘dog (-110) and +235 on the moneyline.
Larry Nance ($5,200) — Oklahoma City played Jonas Valanciunas (11 minutes, 9.8 FPs) off the floor in Game 3, and his workload has decreased each game of the series. That resulted in Larry Nance Jr.‘s minutes ticking up to 29 in Game 3, and he put up 36.1 FPs as a result. There’s a chance the Pelicans flip their minutes again tonight, but the upside is certainly there for Nance to be a value play.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
