Picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby is always more exciting than selecting the winner of a typical race, but picking the correct runners in exotic wagering is what can make the Kentucky Derby a life-changing race for gamblers.

The $1 trifecta in the 2023 Kentucky Derby paid $982, while the $1 superfecta returned $15,643. Rich Strike’s 2022 upset netted a $14,870 trifecta and $321,500 superfecta payoff.

Payoffs like these are why picking more than the winner matters in the Kentucky Derby. With that in mind, I rank this year’s 2024 Kentucky Derby field from first to last below.

1. Sierra Leone (3-1). Chad Brown is overdue to win his first Kentucky Derby and this appears to be his best chance yet. This colt is improving at the right time, should adore the distance and has a ferocious late kick. Since adding the blinkers two starts back, he has blown by top quality runners such as; Just a Touch, Track Phantom and Catching Freedom, like they were stuck in cement. He will win as long as he does not run into trouble and is the safest bet to key in the top two spots in exotic wagering. 

2. Catching Freedom (8-1). He is the only runner in the field that has improved by five Beyer Speed Figure points or more in every single start of his career. He does not know how to run a bad race and is already proven over 1 3/16 miles. It is hard to find holes in this colt’s resume and it is going to take a big effort to defeat this honest runner.

3. Forever Young (10-1). The Japanese import may the best foreign invader yet to compete in the Run for the Roses and he is both talented and battle-tested. The distance is no problem for him and he has more tactical speed than the first two contenders mentioned, which should give him first jump on the tiring front-runners.

4. Fierceness (5-2). Meet the most polarizing colt in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. He has run three outstanding races and two complete duds, while failing to put forth back-to-back good efforts. It would be no surprise if he won as a repeat of his breathtaking Florida Derby romp will take care of business, but he must prove he can provide the same brilliance if dealt with adversity.

5. Honor Marie (20-1). This colt is drawn beautifully and already has a win over the track. He has proven to be among the top of his crop when running over a fast track and has been working out great leading up to the race. He will certainly outrun his odds and could pull off the upset.

6. Stronghold (20-1). The crop in California has not been as strong as usual this year, but any Santa Anita Derby winner should be respected in the Kentucky Derby. He should sit a great tracking trip outside of the speed and has shown that he is not afraid to compete in the lane.

7. Encino (20-1). The son of Nyquist passed his first dirt test in the Lexington Stakes and had shown great versatility while winning both on the lead and from well off the pace. He faces a big class jump, but may just be up to the challenge.

8. Mystik Dan (20-1). He has an impressive win over the track and a romping win in the Southwest Stakes on his resume, but has proven to be inconsistent. His win in the Southwest Stakes came over a sloppy track and his chances would greatly increase if the track is wet on Saturday.

9. Resilience (20-1). This colt has enough tactical speed to be close, but not enough speed to make the lead, which means he could be in danger of suffering a wide trip from post 19. He looked good in his first start in blinkers in the Wood Memorial Stakes, but there was not much behind him that day in a prep race that has been very unproductive over the past 20 years.

10. Just a Touch (10-1). He has plenty of ability, but ultimately may prove to be best at shorter distances. Though he was second in both the Gotham Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes, he lacked the needed punch in the stretch to inspire confidence the he will improve at a longer distance while facing more pace pressure.  

11. Just Steel (20-1). The D. Wayne Lukas colt is tough to get a read on. With 11 career starts, he does not have the same upside as many of his rivals. His second-place effort in the Arkansas Derby makes him an interesting long shot to consider, but there are too many poor efforts scattered across his form to inspire any sort of trust.

12. Track Phantom (20-1). Steve Asmussen’s colt would be tough in the Pat Day Mile, but is likely to get leg weary late after having to be the runner to battle with Fierceness in the early going. His form has declined as the distances have increased and it is hard to picture any further improvement.

13. Dornoch (20-1). The brother of Mage looked like a leading contender on the Kentucky Derby Trail after defeating Sierra Leone in the Remsen Stakes. Unfortunately, he has regressed off of that grueling effort and has failed to show the necessary improvement in his 3-year-old campaign to be a serious contender.

14. Catalytic (30-1). He showed nice improvement in the Florida Derby, but was literally not even in the same screen as Fierceness and would have to take another large step forward to have a chance to make noise against this group.

15. Domestic Product (30-1). Chad Brown’s other entrant exits a series of slow races and appears to be a cut below the best of this crop. The 82 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in the Tampa Bay Derby is not going to get it done in Kentucky.

16. Society Man (50-1). While he has been getting better, he was 106-1 for a reason in the Wood Memorial. The Wood Memorial may be the weakest of all major preps this year and even the great Frankie Dettori can only help so much.

17. Endlessly (30-1). He would have to put forth a career best effort while trying dirt for the first time. This is no easy task and trainer Michael McCarthy has admitted that this was not his first preference as he is not sure that dirt will be his preferred surface.

18. T O Password (30-1). The Japanese import did not make a start as a 2-year-old and will be making only his third career start in the Kentucky Derby. Unlike Forever Young, he did not appear to beat much in his two starts and would be a major surprise with his lack of seasoning.

19. Grand Mo the First (50-1). He is winless in three tries over the dirt and has been no match for the top of his class. He would need to put forth a substantial improvement to prove to be a factor. 

20. West Saratoga (50-1). He has lost ground in the stretch in his last four races and does not appear to have the class or the stamina to be able to contend.