With the completion of the post-position draw for Kentucky Derby 2024, all of the information is available for handicappers to make the most difficult decisions of the year, picking a winner and determining how to wager for the run for the roses.

This final odds and analysis will help you make those decisions. The last five years, the favorite lost and the odds of the winners were 15-1, 81-1, 12-1, 8-1 and 9-2.

Triple Crown champion Justify won as the 2.90-1 top choice in 2018, and going back to 2013, six favorites in a row were the winner with odds ranging from 2.30-1 to 5.40-1.

During the points era, which began in 2013, only three Kentucky Derby winners rallied from far back to win, Orb in 2013 and the past two years with Mage and Rich Strike. The other eight were either front runners or stalkers, and none of them were ever farther back than third place.

The final field is listed in post-position order with the official morning line odds, their Derby points, most recent race result, highest Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, sire, trainer, jockey, career record and earnings. Also listed is post-position information since 1930, when the starting gate was first used. The Derby will be run as race 12 of 14 with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. EDT.

1. Dornoch, 20-1. Good Magic, Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, 75, 4th Blue Grass (G1), 88, 6: 3-2-0, $552,275. Post-position 1 stats – 94: 8-5-5, last winner: Ferdinand, 1984. Dornoch broke his maiden at Keeneland during the fall meeting in 2023 and won his next two starts in graded stakes while racing on the lead. He beat Sierra Leone in the Remsen (G2) by a nose and won the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his 2024 debut. In the Blue Grass he did not get to set the pace, finished fourth, and did not compete for the win. Expect him to try to get to the lead from the rail. Toss.

2. Sierra Leone, 3-1. Gun Runner, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 155, 1st Blue Grass, 98, 4: 3-1-0, $918,000. Post-position 2 stats – 94: 7-5-13, last winner: Affirmed, 1978. Sierra Leone is a nose away from being undefeated in his four career starts. After his loss in the Remsen (G2), the son of Gun Runner won the Risen Star (G2) and the Blue Grass with deep closing runs from far off the pace. The preference for more forwardly placed horses to win the Derby has been reversed by the victories from Mage and Rich Strike the last two years. Both Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione are seeking their first Derby wins. Top choice.

3. Mystic Dan, 20-1. Goldencents, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 46, 3rd Arkansas Derby (G1), 101, 6: 2-1-1, $641,360. Post-position 3 stats – 94: 5-8-8, last winner: Real Quiet, 1998. Mystic Dan has the third highest speed figure in the field, with the top two belonging to Fierceness. Mystic Dan got that big number on a sloppy and sealed track when he won the Southwest (G3). His races before and after the Southwest were on fast tracks, and he wasn’t particularly competitive in either of them. Toss.

4. Catching Freedom, 8-1. Constitution, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 125, 1st Louisiana Derby (G2), 97 – 5: 3-0-1, $877,350. Post-position 4 stats – 94: 5-6-4, last winner: Super Saver, 2010. Catching Freedom is another late runner who found success on the Derby trail this year picking up victories in the Louisiana Derby and the Smarty Jones. Brad Cox and Flavien Prat will try for their second wins in the run for the roses. Win contender.

5. Catalytic, 30-1. Catalina Cruiser, Saffie Joseph Jr., Jose Ortiz, 50, 2nd Florida Derby (G1), 90 – 3: 1-2-0, $216,825. Post-position 5 stats – 94: 10-8-4, last winner: Always Dreaming, 2017. Catalytic made all three starts in Florida, beginning with a maiden sprint victory at Gulfstream by more than three lengths at 7-2. He was second in an allowance at Tampa and then moved onto the qualifying trail in the Florida Derby, where he was second the entire race and could not keep up with the runaway winner. Catalytic was well clear of the third-place horse and probably earned a speed figure that was inflated by the performance of Fierceness. Toss.

6. Just Steel, 20-1. Justify, D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen, 65, 2nd Arkansas Derby (G1), 95, 11: 2-4-1, $724,545. Post-position 6 stats – 94: 2-8-3, last winner: Sea Hero, 1993. Just Steel is the most experienced horse in the field, which should be no surprise with D. Wayne Lukas as the trainer. He began at Saratoga and raced seven times as a 2-year-old. This year he raced at Oaklawn and finished second in three of the Derby preps at that track with stalking trips. His best race probably was the Arkansas Derby, where he finished behind Muth and earned his top speed figure. Lukas has won the Kentucky Derby four times. Use underneath.

7. Honor Marie, 20-1. Honor Code, Whit Beckman, Ben Curtis, 65, 2nd Louisiana Derby, 96 – 5: 2-2-0, $526,175. Post-position 7 stats – 93: 8-6-6, last winner: Mandaloun, 2021. Honor Marie was a winner on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill. In his first start of 2024 he finished fifth in the Risen Star, which turned out to be a key race on the Derby trail with the top four finishers winning prep races. Honor Marie came back to run his best race when he rallied from the back of the field to finish second in the Louisiana Derby with his top speed figure. Live long shot.

8. Just a Touch, 10-1. Justify, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 75, 2nd Blue Grass (G1), 96 – 3: 1-0-2, $281,700. Post-position 8 stats – 93: 9-5-5, last winner: Mage, 2023. Just a Touch looked like a winner at the stretch call of the Blue Grass, where he had taken the lead after pressing the pace but got caught by Sierra Leone. The son of Justify finished almost three lengths ahead of the show horse. Just a Touch is the second Brad Cox runner in the field. Florent Geroux and Cox got their first Derby victories with Mandaloun in 2021. Use underneath.

9. Encino, 20-1. Nyquist, Brad Cox, Axel Concepcion, 40, 1st Lexington (G3), 94 – 4: 3-1-0, $378,315. Post-position 9 stats – 90: 4-6-8, last winner: Riva Ridge, 1972. Encino made his first three starts at Turfway Park, getting his maiden win in his second try, and then won the Battaglia on the Derby trail with a closing move. He made his first start on the dirt in the Lexington a winning one and is the third runner in this year’s Derby for Cox. Use underneath.

10. T O Password, 30-1. Copano Rickey, Daisuke Takayanagi, Kazushi Kimura, Japan, 1st Fukurya, NA, 2: 2-0-0, $163,339. Post-position 10 stats, 87: 9-6-10, last winner: Giacomo, 2005. T O Password earned the Derby spot for the horse from the qualifying races that were run in Japan. He won both of his starts taking a maiden and a minor stakes race. He is outclassed by the other Japanese horse. Toss.

11. Forever Young, 10-1. Real Steel, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 100, 1st UAE Derby (G2), NA – 5: 5-0-0, $2,049,451. Post-position 11 stats – 83: 2-6-4, last winner: Winning Colors, 1988. Forever Young prepped for the Derby by racing in the Mideast with wins in the Saudi Derby (G2) and then the UAE Derby. He tracked the pace in Dubai and then pulled away in the final 200 meters to pick up 100 points. Forever Young will try ro become the first horse from Japan or from the UAE Derby to win the big race on the first Saturday in May. Toss.

12. Track Phantom, 20-1. Quality Road, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario – 70, 4th Louisiana Derby (G2), 94 – 7: 3-2-1, $405,000. Post-position 12 stats, 79: 3-3-4, last winner: Canonero II, 1971. Track Phantom won the two early Derby prep races at Fair Grounds and then set the pace in the Risen Star and finished second. He again was on the lead in the Louisiana Derby, which is the longest Derby points race, and ended up fourth. Steve Asmussen will be trying to win the run for the roses for the first time. Track Phantom has the look of a horse who will be overlooked in the large Derby field. He gets blinkers on for the first time. Toss.

13. West Saratoga, 50-1. Exaggerator, Larry Demeritte, Jesus Castanon, 67, 2nd Jeff Ruby (G3), 85 – 10: 2-5-1, $460,140. Post-position 13 stats – 77: 5-5-7, last winner: Nyquist, 2016. West Saratoga won the first 10 points on the Derby trail when he won the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill. He picked up 57 more points with top-three finishes in three other preps, including a second in the Jeff Ruby. Toss.

14. Endlessly, 30-1. Oscar Performance, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 100, 1st Jeff Ruby (G3), 91 – 6: 5-0-0, $707,200. Post-position 14 stats – 67: 2-6-6, last winner: Carry Back, 1961. Endlessly earned his spot in the Derby with his victory in the Jeff Ruby on the synthetic track at Turfway Park. In addition, the son of Oscar Performance won on Golden Gate’s Tapeta track after beginning his career with three wins on the turf, all with come-from-behind trips. Ultimately, turf racing might be where he excels. Use underneath.

15. Domestic Product, 30-1. Practical Joke, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 60, 1st Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 87 – 5: 2-1-0, $314,200. Post-position 15 stats – 62: 6-2-1, last winner: Authentic, 2020. Domestic Product is the other Chad Brown runner in the Derby, joining Sierra Leone. He last was seen in the winner’s circle after the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), in March which he won after finishing second in the Holy Bull. Domestic Product won at Tampa even though his speed figure took a significant drop. Toss.

16. Grand Mo the First, 50-1. Uncle Mo, Victor Barboza Jr., Emisael Jaramillo, 40, 3rd Florida Derby (G1), 87 – 6: 2-0-4, $214,650. Post-position 16 stats – 51: 4-3-3, last winner: Animal Kingdom, 2011. Grand Mo the First won his first two starts on the Tapeta track at Gulfstream during the summer and since then finished third in four stakes races. The last two were in Derby points races in the Tampa Derby and the Florida Derby. Toss.

17. Fierceness, 5-2*. City of Light, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 136, 1st Florida Derby (G1), 110 – 5: 3-0-1, $1,703,850. Post-position 17 stats – 44: 0-1-2, last winner: none. Fierceness bounced back from his disappointing third-place finish in the Holy Bull (G3) with a brilliant victory in the Florida Derby. The 2-year-old champion extended his lead throughout the nine-furlong prep race, earning the highest speed figure in this field. That victory stamped him as the horse to beat and the likely favorite on the first Saturday in May as Todd Pletcher seeks his third Derby win and John Velazquez his fourth. The outside post position should provide a trouble-free start to the race. Win contender.

18. Stronghold, 20-1. Ghostzapper, Philip D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, 125, 1st Santa Anita Derby (G1), 89, 6: 3-3-0, $827,200. Post-position 18 stats – 36: 2-4-0, last winner: Country House, 2019. Stronghold is the highest rated Derby contender from the West Coast, with two recent stalking victories in the Santa Anita Derby and the Sunland Derby. He never finished worse than second in his career, which began in August. One of those losses was behind the top Bob Baffert 3-year-old Nysos. Toss.

19. Resilience, 20-1. Into Mischief, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 110, 1st Wood Memorial (G2), 90, 6: 2-1-1, $494,630. Post-position 19 stats – 30: 1-1-0, last winner: I’ll Have Another, 2012. Resilience moved from a maiden victory to the Risen Star and finished fourth behind three horses who were winners on the Kentucky Derby trail, including Sierra Leone. He came back to stalk the pace in the Wood Memorial and won by more than two lengths. Bill Mott won the Derby in 2019 when Maximum Security was disqualified for interference in the final turn. Use underneath.

20. Society Man, 50-1. Good Magic, Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori, 50, 2nd Wood Memorial (G1), 87, 5: 1-1-1, $196,705. Post-position 20 stats – 18: 2-0-1, last winner: Rich Strike, 2022. Society Man is the other Danny Gargan runner who surprisingly qualified after finishing second in the Wood Memorial at 106-1. Society Man is the only gelding in the field. Toss.

AE21. Epic Ride, 30-1. Uncle Mo, John Ennis, Adam Beschizza, 35, 3rd Blue Grass (G1), 90, 5: 2-2-1, $253,166. Toss.

AE22. Mugatu, 30-1. Blofeld, Jeff Engler, Joe Talamo, 14, 5th Blue Grass (G1), 12: 1-1-3, $80,570. Toss.

Summary: The biggest winner at the post-position draw was the morning-line favorite Fierceness. Drawing to the far outside with the other speed horses to his inside greatly increased the chances that the Todd Pletcher runner will be able to have a trouble-free run into the first turn. Fierceness should be able to settle into a pace-pressing position in the three or four path.

Sierra Leone is going to have to drop back from post position 2 and work out a trip through at least half of the field to get a chance to take advantage of his late running style.

The top win contenders in the 2024 Kentucky Derby are Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Catching Freedom and the live long shot Honor Marie.