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Flemington

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Cup Week at Flemington continues on Thursday for Oaks Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

If in doubt, just go with Waller/J Mac so with that in mind, 7 Changing Colours (Bet Now: $2.30) is on top. She has been runner up in both runs this time in, the latest at Ballarat when a beaten odds on favourite and seemingly had her chance but I will say she did do a bit wrong in the straight. Gets J Mac, a rise in trip and finds a very thin race.

Danger

8 Swycho (Bet Now: $10.00) comes over from SA in ripping form for Michael Hickmott, a stable who should always be respected when coming to Melbourne. She has won her past two for Michael Hickmott, winning the maiden two back at Morphettville Parks before going to 1500m on Gawler Cup Day before being clicked up and she was quite strong to the line, winning impressively. Good test here, but confident she can measure up.

Long Shot

3 Grey Ice (Bet Now: $8.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. She ran over the mile at The Valley last time when off the speed and kept finding the line in a really good effort I thought behind Written In Code when a close up fourth. Hard fit and up in trip, she’s a definite improver.

Back Me

1 Kallos (Bet Now: $3.90) has to be given another look after the Schillaci, where he got badly held up behind tired runners. He had plenty up the sleeve but didn’t get clear until it was too late. If the breaks go his way here, I think he’s more than good enough to take this out.

Danger

8 Garza Blanca (Bet Now: $14.00) is a talented animal for Ciaron Maher that resumes. He had a two run Autumn prep, placing fresh at Kembla before a plain effort at Bendigo and was spelled. 1000m is on the short side but with a stack of speed engaged, he’ll get back and be strong at the end.

Long Shot

10 Philosopher (Bet Now: $31.00) will jump on the bunny and I think he’ll give a big sight. He resumed on Cox Plate Day and wasn’t too bad in defeat I thought behind Acromantula after not getting the best of steers from Carleen Hefel. Big jockey upgrade with Mick Dee and he rides horses for Enver very well.

Back Me

6 Duke Of Condicote (Bet Now: $18.00) has a horror draw to overcome but I think he is an import that has talent. Ciaron Maher trained gelding that resumed over 1700m at Caulfield where he just got too far back in the run but really liked the way he finished the race off in defeat behind Extreme Virtue. Tick over trial was good and fitter, up to 2000m, I think he’s the each way play.

Danger

4 Motorace (Bet Now: $7.50) is flying for Michael Hickmott and commands respect. He has won two on the bounce, firstly at Morphettville before a strong win at Murray Bridge, both wins being at 1800m, and he gives every indication of eating up 2000m. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

2 Dublin Journal (Bet Now: $12.00) comes here in form and maps ideally, his last start being a Horsham Cup triumph where he got into a sweet sit just off the speed before angling clear and knuckled down with purpose late to win and win well. Gets into a plum spot from the gate and 2000m should be fine.

Back Me

1 Roots (Bet Now: $5.00) won this race two years ago and I think she wins it again despite her recent efforts in Sydney being suspect, the latest run a down the track effort in The Invitation, but this looks more to her liking, she looks well placed with a class edge and does get J Mac.

Danger

3 Second To Nun (Bet Now: $9.00) has been up forever it seems like but she is a mare who is in form who can press forward. She ran in the JRA Cup on Cox Plate Day and was honest in defeat but just failed to run out the trip behind Future History. Back to the mile and Mares grade, she’ll run well.

Long Shot

2 Queen Of Dragons (Bet Now: $20.00) is dangerous with her best. She ran over the mile at Randwick last time out when ridden with intent to sit on speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through, tiring late behind St Lawrence. Nor sure she wins, but is a first four threat.

Back Me

8 Verdad (Bet Now: $2.60) has been a money muncher this prep but the big thing going for him is J Mac jumps on and if he can’t get it home, the horse may as well get a life ban. He hasn’t been winning this prep but that said, he has been racing well and hasn’t been too far away. He is on the short side, but he does look the one to beat.

Danger

5 Alder (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Busuttin/Young trained gelding that resumes after a Winter prep where he showed promise but at times, he was quite disappointing, so he’s been given a decent break and has jumped out well for the return. I say watch the market and see what it does.

Long Shot

10 Picaroon (Bet Now: $26.00) won the Country Final this day last year and is ticking along nicely I say. She comes back to 1800m after racing over 2200m in the Hamilton Cup last time where she tried hard but just didn’t quite run the trip out. Back to this trip, I think she’s an improver at odds.

Back Me

You’re getting $3.80/thereabouts and not even money for 5 Oh Too Good (Bet Now: $3.60) because of the gate. If he is able to slide across, he will be an even money chance and be too good. He won on Geelong Cup Day where he landed in a plum spot before being given clear air under Frosty and he was miles too sharp for his rivals. If he gets luck from the gate, good luck beating him.

Danger

4 Magarten (Bet Now: $17.00) is a ripper for Jerome Hunter. He won at Hamilton last start, getting better as the race went on and was strong to the line in winning. Good test here against some likely types but confident he can measure up and does get Craig Williams to steer.

Long Shot

3 Eye Of The Eagle (Bet Now: $18.00) does no work from the gate so with that in mind, I think he’s a knockout hope. He won on Sale Cup Day, letting down with purpose late from off the speed to win and win well. The query is 1600m but with the gate, I think he’ll be okay.

Back Me

I am surprised that 16 Vestas (Bet Now: $8.50) isn’t favourite. She debuted on Pinker Pinker Night at Cranbourne and yes, didn’t beat much, but the arrogance of the win was something else and the gears she had left was very impressive. She jumped out here last week and really, she was the standout IMO, making Group l horses look a grade below her. Keen.

Danger

11 I Found You (Bet Now: $6.50) is a filly I’ve had time for since day one and I know Peter Snowden has a high opinion of her. She had a two run Winter prep, winning like a rocket on debut before a good effort here, probably giving her a look at the straight with this race in mind. She’s the only threat.

Long Shot

18 Damehood (Bet Now: $27.00) commands respect for me. Ciaorn Maher trained filly that went like a rocket I thought on debut at Ballarat, getting better as the race went on and was quite sharp the way she put them away late in the piece. Good test here stepping up to this level but for mine, she looks well above average.

Back Me

I am going with the Wakeful form but I’ll side with 7 Talisay (Bet Now: $41.00) at odds. On paper, just a run, but watching the replay and the way the race was run, she had no hope, but her late splits were quite good and her sectionals were third best behind the first two. I think she’ll love 2500m and she’s the right price to find out, and I dare say she’ll get out.

Danger

2 Too Darn Discreet (Bet Now: $8.00) is flying for Dan O’Sullivan and has to be respected. She has won three on the bounce, the latest being the Ethereal a few weeks back when just off the speed before being clicked up and although she was there to be beaten, she found and was too good. Not sure what upside there is but she only has to hold her form to take beating.

Long Shot

12 Inevitable Truth (Bet Now: $31.00) is still a maiden but she has talent for John Sargent. She fourth in the Wakeful. Lacked change up speed when initially asked for the effort but she kept on and was good late in the piece behind Treasurethe Moment. Maps to do no work and be effective late.

Back Me

13 Splash Back (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a mare with a decent engine under the hood and she looks to have returned in beast mode. She resumed on Seymour Cup Day where she gave them a start and a beating, letting down with sustained change up speed and was impressive. Gets three wide cover and launches late.

Danger

2 Light Infantry Man (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t done much since arriving from overseas but he has class and gets J Mac, plus his latest run had merit. That was the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day where you can easily make a case to say he should have won but had little luck and nearly fell. If the breaks go his way, he can win.

Long Shot

3 Banker’s Choice (Bet Now: $16.00) is getting towards D-Day. He comes through the Turnbull where he was outclassed on paper and ran accordingly when down the track behind Via Sistina. Good record at around this level and the form out of the Turnbull is elite. He can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 8 Verdad

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Oh Too Good

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 Talisay

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5

Leg Two: 11, 16

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7, 12

Leg Four: 2, 3, 11, 12

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