The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA’s official injury report.
If you’re willing to roll the dice, this line could look like an absolute bargain later this afternoon.
We don’t know if LaMelo Ball (calf) will suit up after sitting Friday, but if he does, the Charlotte Hornets‘ improving offense should smash this line. Per PBP Stats, they’ve got a manageable 110.6 offensive rating (ORTG) in games where Ball has played entering this delightful matchup.
The Atlanta Hawks are one of the Association’s most noted points factories, playing at the league’s 2nd-fastest pace with its 10th-worst defensive rating (114.9 DRTG). Atlanta has given up at least 114 points to 8 of their last 10 opponents.
numberFire has Charlotte at 112.5 median points with Ball questionable. I believe they surge past this mark if the catalyst plays.
Speaking of LaMelo, I’m a bit surprised this line is so low for him to dish dimes.
There’s even less risk here, per a void if Ball simply sits again Saturday. If he plays, it’ll be in a Hawks matchup where he’ll face a team allowing the sixth-most assists per game in the NBA.
At first glance, LaMelo’s assists per 36 minutes (7.5) are down from a season ago (9.0), but it should be closer. The guard’s potential assists per game (12.9) are still within earshot of last year’s (14.0), and he’s just converting a lower percentage (51.5%) than in 2023-24 (57.6%). That’s ultimately luck on teammates making shots.
Atlanta’s poor defense could help them go in. FanDuel Research’s NBA DFS projections expect 9.1 assists from Ball in this up-tempo spot, showing value at plus money.
Do my eyes deceive me? Every Washington Wizards total is usually encroaching 240 points, and the Milwaukee Bucks are all of a sudden an outlier matchup to dip way down here? No shot.
Washington is a great team…to face. The Wizards’ second-worst DRTG (118.8) and fourth-highest pace in the NBA make them a prime spot for scoring, and the Bucks do plenty of that. They’ve got a 114.2 ORTG in games where Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard both played, which would be 10th in the NBA extrapolated to the whole season.
On the other side, I just don’t know how much Washington will miss Kyle Kuzma (ribs). Their 99.0 ORTG becomes 109.8 when the ball-stopper is off the floor. I feel as if the market has priced in a downgrade for the Wiz when Kuz’s absence might just help.
nF loves this total, forecasting 237.4 median total points between these two clubs. That’s sooner where I expected the total given Milwaukee’s clean bill of health.
One of the Bucks who can contribute is center Brook Lopez.
If you’re a center like Lopez, you circle the Wizards’ squishy interior on the calendar for weeks. Washington’s allowed the most points per game (28.6) and third-most rebounds per game (16.9) to opposing fives.
I’m a bit trepidacious that those interior points and boards go to Giannis, but Lopez balled against Washington last year, averaging 20.3 points and 5.7 rebounds in three meetings.
We’ve got Lopez projected for 13.4 points and 6.0 rebounds on Saturday.
The Phoenix Suns‘ switch is currently “on”. We’ll lay a one-basket margin with them tonight.
When Phoenix has had Kevin Durant in the lineup, all has been good. They’ve posted a +4.6 net rating (NRTG) in games that he’s played, leading to a 9-2 record straight up. Not all is ideal with Bradley Beal (calf) and Jusuf Nurkic (quad) listed as questionable, but this line inspires hope Beal plays, and Nurkic’s size isn’t as much of a factor against the Golden State Warriors.
Golden State isn’t free of potential disaster here, either. Stephen Curry (knee) and Andrew Wiggins (ankle) are both questionable. The Dubs’ net rating drops from +12.4 with Steph on the floor to +2.1 with him off — and that’s with strategically resting his knee in three home games.
The Warriors’ 12th-softest schedule in the league so far still has me wondering exactly how much different this squad, sans Klay Thompson, is from last year’s. The Suns have been a juggernaut with Durant active, so we’ll find out in short order this evening.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
