The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA’s official injury report.
The Denver Nuggets are roaring after four wins over teams not currently in a playoff spot, but they’ve shown issues moving up in competition, losing to the Houston Rockets at home by 20 as recently as five games ago.
Now, they’ll meet an old rival in Minneapolis.
Of course, Denver was bounced in seven games by the Minnesota Timberwolves last season in a series that Minnesota largely dominated. Their roster shifted from Karl-Anthony Towns to Julius Randle, but otherwise, this team’s +4.8 net rating (NRTG) in the last 10 games is another mounting contender with a similar roster. They’re also healthy.
The Nuggets’ recent schedule is almost impossibly fortuitous. Double-digit losses to the Rockets, Boston Celtics, and Cleveland Cavaliers stand out among a sea of tanking or imperfect squads. Russell Westbrook shot 50.0% or worse from the field against those three teams while demolishing everyone else.
At home, Minnesota is playing well to the point where Timberwolves Moneyline (+154) is far from crazy.
I was surprised to see these two teams — defensive stalwarts from a year ago — so primed for a high-scoring affair tonight.
Doug Christie’s directive with the Sacramento Kings is obvious at this stage: get out and run. Sactown leads the NBA in pace over every team’s respective last 10 games (102.6) despite the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls still playing frantic basketball.
A favorable tempo could mean a ton of points for them against the New York Knicks‘ 24th-ranked defensive rating (116.5 DRTG) in this same stretch. They’ll also boost New York’s expectation for possessions; the Knickerbockers rank 24th in tempo over their last 10, as well.
Both of these squads have a top-nine over rate (at least 54.6%) this season. I think, mentally, many bettors haven’t adjusted to the fact these basketball clubs aren’t built on valuing possessions anymore. This line is still dropping, though, so I’d wait here.
Expecting points, we can dive into the prop market here, too.
This is a tremendous matchup for Mikal Bridges to snag buckets — and boards. The Kings are allowing the 9th-most points and 15th-most boards to opposing small forwards this season.
He’s been a much better bet in games with tempo this month, combining for 27 points and rebounds (PR) against the Hawks and 21 PR against the Bulls.
Overall, Bridges’ 32.5 3P% in January is underwhelming for the career 37.3% shooter from deep. That’s why I — and FanDuel Research’s daily NBA projections — want to keep buying him in betting markets.
FDR is expecting 19.6 points and 4.6 rebounds from Bridges in this up-tempo clash, which would smash his PR prop.
In some ways, this is a bet on the Washington Wizards. Terrifying, I know.
However, it’s highly improbable that D.C. will just continue to get smashed in every game. They’ve lost by at least 23 points in three straight, but nine days ago, they managed just a seven-point defeat at home against the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix hosts Washington tonight, but I’m still leaning toward a closer affair opposite the Suns’ porous 116.5 DRTG.
In that event, this line for Kyle Kuzma definitely bakes in blowout risk. The full-time player has seen just 27.8 minutes per game this month because Washington often loses in such uncompetitive fashion.
Kuz also posted just five points and five assists in these teams’ game earlier this month, but that was attempting just four field goals. He’s averaging 12.1 per game in January. Phoenix also surrenders the 14th-most points and 5th-most assists per game to power forwards.
A more aggressive Kuzma can find baskets on this awful Phoenix D. Our projections expect 18.2 points and 3.7 assists from him at a median today, so I can’t believe this prop is trending toward dropping at the moment.
When I first saw this line, I assumed Giannis Antetokounmpo was out for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.
Nope.
Giannis (knee) is probable. Yours truly is a Los Angeles Clippers fan. This line is just wrong.
L.A.’s scrappy bunch — even wildly shorthanded earlier this week against Boston — has exceeded all expectations, but they’ve struggled recently against true contenders. They’re 0-4 against current playoff teams in January with a -47 point differential.
Milwaukee (25-17) has righted the ship after their NBA Cup win and qualify as another team that would fit that description. The Clips also dropped both games against the Bucks last season.
A mounting improved sample against top-shelf teams could start tonight with Kawhi Leonard back in the fold, but until we see L.A. notch a high-profile win or two, they should still be underdogs in this spot.
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
