The
has always proven that the scouting process is never an exact science. If it were, the best players in the draft would always be selected with the first overall pick and there would never be any stories of players turning into busts.
However, every single season there are great examples of players going way later than they should have. In some cases, it will be stars emerging from the second round of the
Draft. Sometimes it can also be as simple as a player within the top five being selected a few picks later than they should have been, with the benefit of hindsight.
In some of these cases, those players even turn out to be the best players of their draft class. The fourth overall pick certainly has a few cases of exactly that occurrence happening since the year 2000.
There have been a few times when a draft class had their top NBA pro emerge from that selection. Even when that has not occurred, the fourth overall pick has still produced a strong list of stars since 2000.
is a player who offers a great example of the former. The young
star is well on his way to being the best player for the 2021 NBA Draft. Unfortunately for Barnes, due to the short length of his career and the competition here, it is hard to make a case for him being in the top five just yet. He remains an honorable mention for now.
offers another star from the fourth overall pick who just barely misses the cut here. Porziņģis turned out to be one of the best players in the 2015 NBA Draft. However, the injury issues that have plagued him to this point make him a tough inclusion against the strong competition here. He joins Barnes as an honorable mention.
is not likely to retain this spot for a long time. However, as things currently stand, Conley had way too productive of a career to ignore.
Conley gives a team everything they could ask for out of a floor general at the point guard position. He may not be a superstar, but he provides consistent and reliable production that will make any offense hum.
During his best years, he could be relied upon to hold his own admirably on the defensive end as well. Conley even made the All-Defensive Team in the 2012-13 season.
Mike Conley – Career Peak (2013-21) |
|
---|---|
Category |
Stat |
PPG |
17.5 |
FG% |
43.9% |
3P% |
38.1% |
TS% |
56.4% |
APG |
5.8 |
AST% |
30.5% |
OWS |
33.0 |
WS |
47.6 |
Conley’s best days were as a part of the
. Alongside
and Zach Randolph, the trio led the Grit and Grind Grizzlies to being a perennial playoff team. The team experienced their first and only trip to the Western Conference Finals in franchise history with Conley at the helm.
Conley was finally recognized as an All-Star as a member of the
. He was truly one of the more underrated stars of the 2010s.
If there is one team that can be relied upon making the right pick with the fourth selection since 2000, it is the Grizzlies. They nailed that pick with Conley in 2007, and they did it again when they selected
Jaren Jackson Jr.
in the 2018 NBA Draft.
Despite the 2018 class proving to be one of the best draft classes in recent memory, Jackson Jr. remains an obvious standout from the group of stars that were available. Memphis’ star big man has emerged as one of the best defenders in the NBA.
Jaren Jackson Jr. – Defensive Impact |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season |
SPG |
BPG |
BLK% |
DWS |
2018-19 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
5.1 |
2.2 |
2019-20 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
5.0 |
1.8 |
2020-21 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
6.3 |
0.5 |
2021-22 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
7.4 |
3.7 |
2022-23 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
9.6 |
3.8 |
2023-24 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
4.7 |
2.8 |
Jackson Jr. has already led the league in blocks twice, during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. During both of those seasons, he was named to the All-NBA Defensive First Team. In the latter of the two seasons, he was even honored as an All-Star and the Defensive Player of the Year.
There have also been steady improvements in Jackson Jr.’s scoring, as he continues to mature. 2023-24 was a breakout campaign in that regard, as he averaged a career-high 22.5 points per game.
Similar to Conley, Jackson Jr.’s spot in the top five is not entirely safe moving forward. However, should he continue to build on the strong start to his career, there is a good chance he can remain somewhere in the top five for a long time.
Any time a discussion similar to the one being written today is had, it feels as though the 2003 NBA Draft always makes an appearance. That legendary draft class is pretty much an obligatory inclusion into lists like these.
With the first overall picks list,
naturally led the way. Even with third overall selection, despite the strong list of candidates since 2000,
represented the 2003 class. Now, with the list of fourth overall picks, Chris Bosh makes a necessary appearance.
Bosh also represents a significant jump in the quality of these fourth overall selections. He has already been enshrined in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame after his tremendous career was cut short due to health-related issues.
Chris Bosh – Career Stats and Accolades |
|
---|---|
Category |
Stat |
PPG |
19.2 |
RPG |
8.5 |
BPG |
1.0 |
FG% |
49.4% |
3P% |
33.5% |
TS% |
57.1% |
All-Star Selections |
11 |
All-NBA Selections |
1 |
NBA Titles |
2 |
Career Win Shares |
106.0 |
Bosh remains one of the best selections that the
have made in franchise history. He started his streak of 11 consecutive All-Star appearances as a member of the Raptors.
However, his career really took off as a member of the
, when the Big Three that included himself, James, and Wade came together. The impact of Bosh’s willingness to sacrifice his role in the name of team success really cannot be overstated enough. He was the perfect complementary third star in that equation.
Technically speaking,
was indeed selected by the Seattle Supersonics. This was right before their relocation and rebranding to the
.
Everyone who watched Westbrook during his career peak knew what he was all about. Westbrook was Mr. Triple Double.
Russell Westbrook – Career Peak (2014-19) |
|
---|---|
Category |
Stat |
PPG |
26.3 |
RPG |
9.4 |
APG |
10.1 |
FG% |
43.6% |
TS% |
53.5% |
WS |
54.6 |
Westbrook’s best five-year stretch, from the 2014-15 season to the 2018-19 campaign, showcases some absurd statistical production. His best year, naturally, came in 2016-17 when Westbrook broke Oscar Robertson’s record for the most triple doubles in a single season on route to winning the MVP.
Those that value peak over longevity can argue that Westbrook belongs at the number one spot on this list. He is the only player of the group to have won an MVP during their careers.
The difference between Westbrook and the player at number one is not a large one, by any means. To some extent, they could be interchangeable. However, there is more than enough justification to have Westbrook be the player who comes in second.
For anyone arguing that Westbrook’s MVP places him above
when it comes to this list, they will be redirected to the 2007-08 MVP trophy that The Point God was firmly snubbed from winning. Paul deserves his spot at the top of the list.
Chris Paul vs. Russell Westbrook – Key Career Comparisons |
||
---|---|---|
Category |
Paul |
Westbrook |
Career Win Shares |
209.4 |
110.6 |
WS/48 |
.232 |
.136 |
All-Defensive Team Selections |
9 |
0 |
Career BPM |
6.9 |
3.9 |
VORP |
97.3 |
57.9 |
First and foremost, Paul absolutely trounces Westbrook in career win shares. He currently has the sixth-most career win shares in NBA history. One would expect Paul to have the edge there, given he has played longer, but not to the capacity that exists. Simply put, Paul greatly affected winning for a longer period in his career and at a much higher level.
Even when the numbers are broken down to Per 48 minutes, Paul still clears Westbrook considerably in the category. The career box plus/minus and value over replacement player confirm the same information.
There is also the elephant of the room in terms of the defensive end of the basketball court. At his best, Paul was an elite defender and quite easily topped Westbrook in most considerable defensive metrics.
No one will dispute that Westbrook was a tremendous all-around statistical machine during his peak. He and LeBron are the only players with 20,000 career points, 8,000 career rebounds, and 8,000 career assists.
However, Paul is one of the elite floor raisers to ever play the game of basketball. If winning is the determining factor, Paul is the safer bet, even if both players failed to capture a championship during their time as elite players.
Stats are courtesy of Basketball Reference.
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5 Best Third Overall NBA Draft Picks Since 2000
The third overall pick has been very kind to the teams selecting there since the year 2000.