Offense was officially back on the menu in Week 5.
Last week’s games averaged 49 points, up from 43 the first four weeks of the season.
It made for a fun viewing experience as an NFL fan. As a bettor, it has to make you a little nervous.
Did something tangibly change to lead to the shift? Should we expect this to be the new norm? Or will we see a regression to the mean in Week 6 and beyond?
Bookmakers seem to be expecting an uptick. The average total across this week is 44.5 points as of Tuesday afternoon, up from 43.6 last week. That’s even with wind threatening to impact the slate in a decent number of areas.
As a result, I’m seeing value in some unders. I can understand why the totals are up, but I think there has been a bit of an overcorrection.
Let’s dig into those — plus one spread I like — in FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL betting odds for Week 6.
My model gives a bump to teams coming off a bye, which is what the Detroit Lions have here. Even with that boost of 0.6 points, I still have the Lions as just slim favorites over the Dallas Cowboys, pushing me to take the points.
I’m guessing the Lions are favored here due to their matchup advantages over the Cowboys. They are more than willing to pound the rock, and the Cowboys have struggled there, ranking dead last in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted rush defense. That’s fair.
But that is a little bit hyperbolic. The Cowboys improve to 23rd against early-down rushes, again adjusted for schedule, meaning they’ve likely had some big plays spin against them on third and fourth down that can have an outsized influence on metrics in a small sample. They’re not good, but they may not be as bad as their early numbers indicate.
I also think the Cowboys’ offense will be able to move the football. Teams throw the ball 64.4% of the time against the Lions on early downs, and the Cowboys have been efficient there despite some tough matchups.
As a result, I don’t mind if you want to take the Cowboys’ moneyline at +142. I do show value there. But as we’ll discuss in a second, I think this game could be a bit lower-scoring than billed, so I do think there’s value in getting the points here, especially at just -105.
Because of the matchups in their favor, I think the Lions will run a bunch here.
Runs keep the clock moving, which sets up well for unders, even if those runs are efficient.
The other thing is that this is just a really high total. My model has this at 48.2 points, allocating roughly 24 points to both sides. The Lions are averaging 26.0 but have topped 24 just twice, and the Cowboys are at 23.4, topping 24 twice in 5 games. And again, they’d need to average 26.5 per side in this one to hit the over.
This game has shootout potential if we get big plays out of the stud skill players. Thus, I get why the total is where it’s at. I just think we have wiggle room to plug an under despite that.
If the New York Giants hadn’t hung 29 points on the Seattle Seahawks last week, where would this total be?
The lookahead line for this game was 46, so the Giants’ outburst combined with a shootout between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens pushed this up 2.5 points. Maybe that’s fair because that new data matters, but it does feel a bit ambitious.
Even with that big Week 5 showing, the Giants are still numberFire’s 23rd-ranked offense. That was their first time this year topping 21 points, and they’ve allowed more than 21 points just once, as well.
That’s obviously not the case for the Bengals. They’re numberFire’s 3rd-ranked offense and 31st-ranked defense, so they’re a points blitz waiting to happen.
In their defense, they have faced a tough road. Two of their games have come against former MVPs (Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson), and another was against a guy who could win one of those down the line (Jayden Daniels). That’s accounted for in the data, but facing Daniel Jones is a whole heck of a lot different.
The rush defense — for the most part — played better last week with several contributors up front returning. Things are at least trending up despite what the Ravens’ final point tally may say.
I’ve got this number closer to where the lookahead line was, pushing me to take the under and bet on this being an overreaction.
It’s possible the Atlanta Falcons hit this number by themselves. They were cooking last Thursday, and the Carolina Panthers‘ defense is rough. Again, though, it just seems loftier than it should be.
Part of this is weather-related. Current forecasts call for 9 mile-per-hour winds, which is high for what will be just the second outdoor game the Falcons have played this year.
I also expect further regression from the Panthers’ offense. They turned back into a pumpkin last week, scoring just 10 points. Granted, that was on the road against an impressive Chicago Bears defense, but with opponents having tape on this Andy Dalton-led offense, we shouldn’t be all that surprised.
When you combine the wind with the Panthers’ offense and a perfectly acceptable Falcons defense, my model has this total at 43.2. Again, the worry is the Falcons could do loads of damage themselves, but I’m hoping an outdoor game in sub-optimal conditions will help matters.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
