The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are off to a dream start under coach Kenny Atkinson, starting their season with a 5-0 record for the first time since 2016. This has been fueled by an electric offense, averaging 125.6 points per game (second-most) paired with the top offensive rating in the NBA. The unit is also aided by the eighth-quickest pace across the league.
Cleveland has finished under the 120-point mark only twice this season, and it was against the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks — two teams among the top-three slowest paces. In the Cavs’ other three games, they’ve averaged 135.0 PPG, which all came against teams among the top 13 quickest paces.
Tonight’s opponent — the Orlando Magic — features the 14th-quickest pace across the NBA, suggesting more points for the Wine and Gold. However, Orlando also touts the fourth-best defensive rating. Will the Cavaliers have enough to go over 112.5 points?
The Magic’s allowed shot distributions aren’t the best as they give up the 11th-highest shot distribution around the rim. Meanwhile, the Cavs tout the seventh-highest shot distribution around the rim on offense, complimented by the fifth-most points in the paint per contest. Orlando has also 113.7 PPG over its previous three games, barely enough for the over.
Opponents have cashed in threes against the Magic, converting 38.1% of their shots from deep (fifth-highest for defense). Cleveland has been the most efficient three-point shooting team across basketball thus far, converting 41.1% of its three-point attempts (the highest).
Simply backing this hot streak is a smart move, especially with the Cavaliers’ total set at only 112.5. They’ve poured in points against teams in the top half of pace, and the Cavs have an ideal matchup to keep attacking the paint while draining shots from beyond the arc.
We have a near pick ’em in an Eastern Conference battle between the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets. numberFire’s game projections have the Nets winning 108.5 to 106.3, though this total seems a bit off compared to what we’ve seen thus far.
Chicago has revamped its offense, going from the third-slowest pace last season to the quickest pace across the NBA. After recording the 12th-fewest points in the paint per game a season ago, the Bulls are down to the third-fewest per contest through five games. Chicago also attempted 32.1 three-point attempts per game last season (fifth-fewest), which has spiked to 44.2 in the 2024-25 season (third-most). Most importantly, the offense has cut back on the dreaded mid-range jump shot, going from the second-highest shot distribution to the sixth-lowest.
Put plain and simple, Chicago has hung its hat on jumpers. Brooklyn has the ideal defense, giving up the fewest three-point shots per game and the third-lowest three-point shot distribution. This isn’t fluky either as the Nets were in the top half for the fewest three-point shots allowed last season, as well.
Brooklyn rolls out a similar style with the fourth-highest three-point shot distribution. The Bulls’ perimeter defense is not defending the three near as well, giving up the sixth-most three-point attempts per contest.
Thanks to a 4-1 record ATS, I’m comfortable taking the Nets to cover. Brooklyn’s -126 to win straight up; we aren’t asking for much more at -1.5 (-112). A cover would also be in line with numberFire’s projections. Chicago’s Zach LaVine (shoulder) is also questionable, adding support to the Nets cover.
The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves have had interesting starts to the 2024-25 season. The Nuggets carried the eighth-best defensive rating last season while the T-Wolves boasted the top unit. However, both units have dipped early in the season as Denver ranks 21st compared to Minnesota at 13th. Some of this will probably balance out as the season progresses, but for now, this should mean more points in tonight’s clash.
Each team is playing at a snail’s pace, sitting among the top seven slowest tempos. However, the Nuggets are still managing to attempt the sixth-most field goals per game — which should help push the pace a bit. Plus, each offense has an ideal matchup.
Denver loves to attack the painted area, totaling the eighth-most points in the paint per game along with the second-highest shot distribution around the rim. This is in line with last season’s squad, which averaged the sixth-most points in the paint per contest. Minnesota is currently surrendering the second-most points in the paint per game. The interior defense has taken a clear hit going from Karl-Anthony Towns (109.6 defensive rating last season) to Julius Randle (117.9 defensive rating).
That’s a check mark for the Nuggets scorching the nets, and the Wolves should be able to carry their own weight in the scoring department, as well. Minnesota has the second-highest three-point shot distribution while launching the seventh-most three-pointers per contest. Denver hasn’t been great at defending the three-point line as opponents are averaging 39.0 shots per game (12th-most).
With each defense underperforming early in the season, the over is shaping up to the best bet for tonight’s Western Conference semifinals rematch.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
