The summer meet at Saratoga Race Course continues for its second weekend. Though some rain knocked Wednesday racing off the grass, races are back on the lawn as of Thursday, and a few dry days mean the weekend should feature firm turf, fast dirt, and all the full fields we hope to see in Saratoga Springs.
Among the stakes races this weekend, perhaps the most eagerly-awaited is the Coaching Club American Oaks. It features the return of Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Acorn (G1) winner Thorpedo Anna. She’ll be a heavy favorite and she’ll probably be the goods. However, for our Best Bets, let’s try to look for some well-placed runners who, unlike Thorpedo Anna, are extremely unlikely to be odds-on.
Ready to place your bet? Join the action with FanDuel Racing!
Saturday’s fifth race is a seven-furlong sprint for $16,000 claimers, non-winners of two lifetime. A race like this raises a couple of handicapping principles that can often help uncover short-priced horses to bet against, making this one of the more interesting conditions you’ll see at the race track.
For one, N2L races can feature horses who may seem like they are “due” but haven’t won in months, if not years. Such horses who haven’t won in a long time may be worth looking at closely if they are making a substantive change, such as dropping significantly in class, trying a new surface, new distance, or new equipment. However, a horse who keeps running second in similar races is often fast enough but with too strong a herd instinct to want to finish the job and win.
Secondly, the seven-furlong distance is a specialist trip. Seven-furlong races often feature conventional six-furlong sprinters stretching out, or two-turn horses who usually go a mile or 1 1/16 miles cutting back. However, some horses do their best work at extended-sprint trips like 6 ½ furlongs, seven, or the one-turn mile, and it can pay off to focus on those horses when they’re running their specialist trip.
These principles make this race a nice betting race. 2-1 morning-line favorite Safalow’s Mission does well at seven-furlong and one-turn mile races, but he hasn’t won a race in over two years. To his credit, he drops to the $16,000 level for the first time, a significant drop. But, Saratoga claiming races tend to be tougher than other races for that same dollar amount just because of all the connections who just want to win at Saratoga, making this a marginal class drop, not a big one. Furthermore, especially at seven furlongs, he won’t be on or near the lead in a race where the pace should be sluggish.
Linda Rice trains the favorite, but she also trains the most interesting alternative: Bobby the Tank. Though Bobby the Tank has not won in over a year, one of the things that can help a horse figure things out is a new piece of equipment. He has hit the board in two of four tries at seven furlongs, showing some ability over the trip, and he has shown speed in his last few starts. He hasn’t seen it out all the way to the finish in those recent starts, but most of them have been at a mile, and this time he is fitted with blinkers for the first time in his career. Between that, the cut back to seven furlongs, the switch to Tyler Gaffalione, and the fact that there is little in the way of credible speed or true distance specialists, he could figure it out again.
We go back to the well of seven-furlong dirt races, this time with a much classier bunch: second-level allowance horses, mixed with a couple of seasoned old pros in for a big $62,500 claiming tag. The 2-1 morning-line favorite is Federal Judge, who does have a win in allowance company at 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt, and returns after a 13-month layoff for strong layoff trainer Brad Cox. However, he won’t have an easy time right up on or near the lead: he is drawn right inside of aptly named Gun It, who tends to gun it right to the front in his recent races. This sets up nicely for a horse who can draft just off of them and relish the trip.
Enter Arro Smash. The Philip Bauer trainee, an Arrogate half to Grade 2-winning sprinter Slammed, is coming in fresh, but hasn’t been off nearly as long as the morning-line chalk. He was last seen finishing second in a six-furlong sprint at this level three months ago at Churchill Downs. The extra distance plays to his favor: two starts back, he wired a seven-furlong allowance sprint at Churchill. And, though he is unlikely to outgun the speed demons to his inside, he showed in his maiden win last year at the Spa that he can stalk and pounce, and that should be just the right trip to overhaul the off-the-bench Federal Judge as well as Gun It, a horse who always gets bet and who has finished second in six of nine tries at seven furlongs.
Sunday’s seventh race is a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight turf route for juvenile fillies. Like so many maiden races at Saratoga, it has plenty of well-related prospects, including Virgin Colada, a Chad Brown trainee who is out of a half to Catholic Boy but must contend with a rail draw, and 3-1 morning-line favorite Wild and Free, a Todd Pletcher runner out of a full sister to Bolo.
The most interesting of the first-timers is Sharp Smile (4-1) for Brad Cox, though: Brad Cox shines with debut runners and tends to be a better price on debut on grass than on dirt. Sire Practical Joke’s progeny have, like those of his sire Into Mischief, been able to stretch out to two turns if there’s enough underneath to support the distance. And, the underside definitely supports two turns at turf at age two: Sharp Smile is out of Chocolate Pop, who also produced the precocious turf router Airoforce. Airoforce graduated at Kentucky Downs on debut, always a tough feat. He went on to win both the Bourbon (G3) on grass and the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on dirt, both at two turns.
However, it can be good to have some experience in these two-turn races, especially when those horses are likely to sneak out for a better price than some of those first-timers. This is the case with Panache, who makes his second start. He was never in contention in a maiden special weight dirt sprint on debut last month at Churchill. However, he broke a step slowly that day. Furthermore, the Not This Time on top suggests five furlongs is not going to be his forte, and there is enough surface and distance versatility in the dam’s side of her pedigree to make her worth trying in this spot. Cherie DeVaux has started Saratoga red hot, jockey Jose Ortiz has been extremely productive for her barn, and this looks like just the spot for Panache to step up for them.
You can also find some value by keeping an eye on the also eligible list and noting live horses who may not take money. Nanananabooboo (20-1) needs three scratches to get into the race, but if she does draw in she has a lot of upside. She didn’t get much chance to show out in her debut at Aqueduct on June 14, going a dirt sprint and dealing with some trip trouble. Nanananabooboo is by Practical Joke, and her dam Tourmaline has produced a trio of foals who have won at two turns as juveniles, either first or second out: Bizymaline, Kid Maline, and Starmaline. Jockey Javier Castellano keeps the faith for trainer Jena Antonucci, who shines with second-time starters.
New to FanDuel Racing? Place your first bet on any race at any track and get it back in Racing Bonus if it doesn’t win! Valid in participating states. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Looking for horse racing betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Racing to see all of today’s horse racing odds.
