The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.
From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We’re here to help you sift through it all.
Using FanDuel Research’s daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
The San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz will meet up tonight. The Jazz rank 12th in pace and struggle with the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA. This is an awesome matchup for the Spurs to produce, and since Victor Wembanyama (knee) has been ruled out, there will be more opportunity to go around.
Enter Zach Collins, a player whose stock skyrockets when Wemby is out of the fold. When the Spurs are healthy, Collins is nothing more than a bench player who sees tame action. But in the two games since Wemby has been out, Collins has not only entered the starting lineup, but he’s also put up 26 and 19 combined points and rebounds (PR).
Collins — who is officially questionable today due to a knee issue — nets 0.69 PR per minute when Wemby is off the floor. As a starter, Collins is averaging 0.86 PR per minute. If Collins continues to produce at that rate, he would need to log roughly 24 minutes in order to exceed 19.5 PR. We’ve seen him play 26 minutes in two straight games, and his clutch three-pointer in Tuesday’s upset win over the Oklahoma City Thunder may have granted him an even longer leash.
The Jazz surrender the most points and rebounds per game to opposing centers. They’re also letting teams drain the fifth-most threes. Collins nets 31.4% of his points from downtown and is shooting trios at a 40.7% clip.
Let’s stick with the same game and look for Harrison Barnes to drill a pair of threes.
Barnes is averaging 1.3 three-point makes (3PM) and has exceeded 1.5 made threes in 7 out of 15 games (46.7% of contests). These +150 odds imply just a 40.0% probability.
Similar to Collins, Barnes gets a bump when Wemby is out. He played 32 minutes (third-most this season) on Tuesday and shot a season-high 13 FGA, including seven 3PA.
On top of that, Barnes will draw an ideal matchup tonight. As mentioned, the Jazz play at a quick pace and struggle with a poor defense. Utah is letting up the seventh-most 3PA, fifth-most 3PM, and allow opponents to shoot trios at a 37.2% clip.
Barnes is also money from downtown. Since 2018, he has averaged anywhere between a 37.4% and 40.8% 3P% in a season. This campaign, he’s shooting the long ball at a 38.8% clip from deep. I’m a bit surprised we are getting this prop at plus money.
LeBron James is averaging 23.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 9.4 assists — good for 41.0 PRA — in his 22nd season in the NBA. I think he falls below that number in tonight’s matchup against the Orlando Magic.
The Magic are a tough bunch to go up against. They play at the sixth-slowest pace in the league and come in with the second-best defensive rating.
LeBron hasn’t fared well in pace-down games. Here’s how his PRA output has looked in contests against teams that rank in the bottom 12 of pace: 24, 25, 33, 34, 39, and 46 PRA. So, he’s averaging only 33.5 PRA in the split and went under 40.5 PRA in five out of six games. Plus, that 46-PRA performance was against a Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers that currently has a league-worst 2-12 record.
Orlando allows the fewest paint points and three-point attempts per game. LeBron nets a combined 75.4% of his points from these areas. Our NBA projections expect LeBron to record 38.2 PRA in this one.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
