The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.
From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We’re here to help you sift through it all.
Using FanDuel Research’s daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
The market didn’t overreact to Mikal Bridges‘ show-stopping, 41-point outburst on Christmas Day.
Bridges is averaging 18.1 points per game in his first season with the New York Knicks. He’s scored at least 15 points in 73.3% of games and has exceeded 16.5 points at a 60.0% rate. These -125 odds imply only a 55.6% probability.
The Knicks will meet up with the Orlando Magic, who rank 3rd in defensive rating and 26th in pace. On paper, this doesn’t seem like a great matchup, but Bridges has been dominant against solid defenses, perhaps since Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns draw so much attention under this circumstance.
Bridges is netting 20.4 points and clearing 16.5 points at a massive 72.7% rate when facing the top 15 defenses in the NBA. He’s averaging 19.8 points and surpassing 16.5 points at an 80.0% clip against the top eight defenses.
Slow-paced games have been Bridges’ cup of tea, too. He’s amassing 18.4 points and eclipsing 16.5 points on a 77.8% basis versus the seven slowest teams in the league.
To add, the close 7.0-point spread in favor of New York indicates we have a competitive game on our hands, and Bridges typically logs north of 40 minutes in close contests. He’s played at least 41 minutes in four of his last five games. Our NBA projections expect him to score 18.3 points in just 38.5 minutes tonight.
Luka Doncic is expected to miss at least one month after sustaining a calf injury on Christmas Day. I don’t think the market properly accounted for how this will affect PJ Washington.
Remember, Luka is eating up 21.2 field goal attempts (third-most in the NBA) and accounting for 8.3 boards per game for the Dallas Mavericks. There’s plenty to make up for when he’s gone, and Washington has historically shouldered a heavier load as a result.
In eight full games sans Luka this season, Washington is averaging 28.4 combined points and rebounds (PR). He notched 21 PR in 87.5% of those games and logged over 21.5 PR in 75.0% of those contests. These -104 odds imply just a 50.9% probability.
Notably, six games in that Doncic-less sample came against a top-15 defense. That won’t be the case tonight, as Dallas will visit the Phoenix Suns, who check in with a meh 23rd-rank D.
The Suns cough up the 10th-most points and 9th-most three-point makes (3PM) per game. A 1.0-point spread and 224.5 over/under hand us an ideal game environment, too.
As a kicker, Washington’s home vs. away stats are drastically in favor of the road. He’s netting 17.1 PR in Dallas but manages 23.9 PR on the road. Add in Luka’s absence, and Washington appears well-equipped to clear 21.5 PR tonight.
C.J. McCollum is set up to have a huge day from behind the arc in tonight’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies play at the fastest pace in the NBA and let up the third-most three-point attempts (3PA) per game. This game features a whopping 237.5 over/under and just an 8.5-point spread despite the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank 18th in pace and 29th in offense, being on the other side. That’s how fast Memphis plays, and I’m expecting it to benefit McCollum’s three-point numbers.
McCollum has played four games against teams that rank in the top five of pace. In this split, he is averaging 3.8 3PM on 9.8 3PA. He drained three three-pointers in 100.0% of these games and nailed at least four trios in 50.0% of these games.
CJ has played seven contests against teams that rank in the top 10 of most 3PA allowed per game. In this split, he is averaging 3.7 3PM on 9.3 3PA. He logged three three-pointers at an 85.7% rate and four three-pointers at a 57.1% rate in this split. For context, -155 odds imply a 60.8% probability and +160 odds imply a 38.5% probability.
On top of all this, McCollum is super duper due to see positive three-point regression. Based on his long-term three-point shooting averages, he’s netting 0.6 made threes below expectation per game this year. That’s the second-highest mark among all NBA players who have suited up for at least 10 games this season. Our NBA projections expect him to notch a slate-high 3.6 made threes in this one.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
