The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway this week.
We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let’s see which first-round matches could have the most betting value on Monday.
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You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button. You’ll then be rewarded a 30% Profit Boost Token to use for a 3+ leg parlay on any Australian Open matches happening January 13th to 16th. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.
World No. 20 Ben Shelton broke out as a quarterfinalist at the 2023 Australian Open, but after bowing out in the third round last season, he’ll be hoping to get back to the second week again this time around.
Shelton faces Brandon Nakashima today, and he should be able to advance past his fellow American into the second round.
Despite reaching the round of 16 at last year’s US Open, Nakashima failed to build on that momentum and actually enters this tournament having lost 8 of his last 10 matches, which includes going 1-2 so far this season. He’s also 0-2 versus Shelton, and while they’ve had close matches, Nakashima has lost all four sets they’ve played.
Shelton lost his lone tune-up match ahead of the event, but he’s 28-17 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, ranking 18th in hard-court win percentage (62.2%). On the other hand, Nakashima has gone just 17-16 over that span (51.5%).
Nakashima also hasn’t had any past success at the Australian Open, failing to win any matches in the main draw or qualifying in each of the past four seasons.
Tennis Abstract projects a 67.0% win probability for Shelton, and we should like his chances of covering this spread.
At first glance, a match between a top-10 player and a qualifier should have all the makings of a blowout — but Joao Fonseca is no ordinary qualifier.
Fonseca won the Next Gen ATP Finals in December at 18 years of age, joining Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz as the only other 18-year-olds to win the event. That should already have our attention, and the teenager isn’t short on confidence and lofty goals, already stating that it’s his dream to become world No. 1.
Including that event, Fonseca has now won 13 straight matches, winning a Challenger title and breezing through Australian Open qualifying. While much of this run hasn’t been against top-tier competition, it’s still telling that he hasn’t even dropped a set in his last eight matches.
On the other hand, Andrey Rublev comes in having lost seven of his last eight matches dating back to last season, and he lost his only tune-up match in Hong Kong against a player ranked outside the top 50. Add in Rublev’s tendency to lose his cool and break mentally in tough matches, and he could be ripe for the upset.
Despite Fonseca coming in ranked 112th on the ATP Tour, Tennis Abstract already has him up at 27th in their Elo ratings, which isn’t far off from Rublev’s mark (21st). As a result, the site give Fonseca a 48.4% chance to win despite the gap in ATP rankings.
While this looks like a viable spot to back Fonseca at plus money, this is his first career major main draw match, so things are unlikely to come easy against a difficult opponent. With that in mind, we should expect this to go four or five sets regardless of the winner, making the over for total match games another way to attack this spot.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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