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Boxing Day racing in Melbourne heads to Caulfield Heath. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

3 Make It Sweet (Bet Now: $2.00) seems the straight bat play for me in the opener. This mare ran over 1400m at Bendigo last time out and she chased with purpose from off the speed but just found one better in Haraldus. The rise to 1800m looks ideal and is hard to beat against these.

Danger

5 Stupendous (Bet Now: $3.50) is flying for the Kennewell/Yeomans trained mare that is flying at present. Latest win came over the mile at Cranbourne where she was quite strong to the line in getting the job done. Off that, 1800m should be fine and it’s hard to knock how well she’s racing.

Long Shot

7 Disturbia (Bet Now: $8.50) ran third to Stupendous in the race mentioned above at Cranbourne. She got into a sweet spot just behind the speed and presented to win but couldn’t quite finish the job. Not sure she wins, but she can finish top four.

Back Me

6 Azeezle (Bet Now: $4.50) is a slight query at 1000m at this level but being drawn inside, near the speed, he’s dangerous, as seen first up at Mornington when on speed and despite being out of petrol tickets late, he had enough in hand to win. Harder here, but think he can measure up.

Danger

1 Orlabent (Bet Now: $6.00) is second up from a spell and is dangerous with his best. He resumed over 955m at The Valley when hunting up to hold a forward spot. He tried hard but first up, condition just gave out. Fitter, good racing style, he’ll give plenty of cheek I am sure.

Long Shot

9 Rock Melody (Bet Now: $23.00) is a knockout hope. First run for Ricardo Meunier came at this track/distance when a big price, completely unwanted, but finished best to win and win well. Gets right down in the weights after the claim and with a stack of speed, she can sit off it and be strong late.

Back Me

4 Mantua (Bet Now: $3.00) comes here with fresh legs for Ciaron Maher, having not raced since Champions Day at Flemington when off speed and kept chasing in a really good effort in defeat behind a Stakes class horse I think, Pisanello. Fresh legs and back miles in grade/depth, he takes beating.

Danger

3 Lady Di Di (Bet Now: $4.20) drops a fair way in grade/depth after racing on Ballarat Cup Day when off speed and while she was never a winning threat, she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Cleo Cat. Back to this level, she appeals as one of the leading contenders.

Long Shot

5 Elba (Bet Now: $3.60) is a daughter of Fastnet Rock that resumes for Team Freedman. This girl is first up, having not raced since Aug 14 when a strong winner over 1200m at Sandown, giving them a start and a beating to let down with purpose late and win quite impressively. She loves firm, goes well fresh and has jumped out nicely for the return.

Back Me

2 Centennial Park (Bet Now: $2.40) on top in what looks a two horse race. Moody/Coleman trained three year old that got front end control at Geelong last time and duly made a mess of them to win impressively. The extra ground should be ideal and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

Danger

3 Sigiriya Rock (Bet Now: $3.70) is the key threat. He won at this track/distance last start where he looked a good thing on paper and he didn’t give his supporters a moment of concern, winning quite comfortably. He can go on with it here.

Long Shot

6 Bancory Bay (Bet Now: $15.00) is a knockout hope. He toughed it out strongly to win his maiden at Bendigo two back before going to 2040m at The Valley where he ran a brave race after getting held up but I don’t think he ran the trip out so back in trip suits. A win wouldn’t shock at all.

Back Me

4 Autumn Slide (Bet Now: $6.00) can bounce back. She ran over 1800m on the course proper here when she was gallant but on the shifty track, up in trip, she couldn’t quite finish the job. Much better suited here and if there is petrol left in the tank, she’s the one to beat.

Danger

5 Ersa (Bet Now: $3.00) looks to gave retuned well for Team Hayes. She was an impressive first up winner here, giving them a start and a beating and yes, she had the suck run, but she still had to advantage and that she did. Good upside to come, she rates highly.

Long Shot

2 Harmonious Senora (Bet Now: $16.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. She ran over this trip at The Valley last time when back near last in the run and in a race where the shape wasn’t to her liking, and she was never a factor. Hard fit now, her best is good enough.

Back Me

10 Vienna Vixen (Bet Now: $2.60) has been a somewhat frustrating mare to follow throughout her career but she has the engine under the hood to take this out. I thought she had excuses at this track/distance last start. She got quite keen in the run and it took away something from her finale. If she produce better racing manners, she’ll be hard to hold out.

Danger

5 One Long Day (Bet Now: $6.00) is a gelding heading in the right direction for Melody Cunningham. He won at this trip at The Valley last time when finding plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. Good test here against likely types but I am confident he can measure up.

Long Shot

11 Princess Nefertiti (Bet Now: $7.50) will put herself on speed and look to give her all. She was near the speed over 1500m at The Valley last time and she stuck to the task quite well in defeat I thought behind Both Sides Now. If she gets across without spending too many petrol tickets, she’s dangerous.

Back Me

6 Regal Vow (Bet Now: $3.90) is a mare I want to give another chance to. She ran on the course proper here last time out in the Summoned where the track was bottomless and she just couldn’t get involved from where she was. Firmer deck, jockey upgrade and maps to settle much closer.

Danger

2 Riot And Rose (Bet Now: $3.80) is flying for Moody/Coleman and has to be respected. He gave them a start and a beating two back to win the Wodonga Cup before doing much the same in the Werribee Cup. He face similar class opposition here, so he has to be rated as one of the leading contenders.

Long Shot

1 Dashing (Bet Now: $5.50) will put himself on speed and give his all, which is what he did in the Werribee Cup last start and tried his guts out but had no answers late for the finale of Riot And Rose. If he gets front end control, he’ll take running down.

Back Me

8 Semillion (Bet Now: $9.00) looks a big price here to me. Yes, he’s not the most reliable horse going around, but when you go back through his form last prep, gee it reads well for this. There is a stack of speed engaged here so I want to be on something strong late and this guy will be.

Danger

9 Mrs Chrissie (Bet Now: $2.50) is a short course specialist and looks to have returned in super order. She resumed on Ballarat Cup Day when near the speed and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but found late to score. Good upside, good racing style, rates highly.

Long Shot

5 Ka Bling (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Peter Snowden trained gelding that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since Sep 14 at Flemington when finding an absolute bog and failing to handle the conditions behind Chrysaor. He can sprint well fresh and his trial work has been encouraging.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Mantua

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 6 Regal Vow

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 8 Semillion

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Two: 4, 5, 10, 11

Leg Three: 2, 6

Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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