Nine races will be run and won at The Valley on Saturday for Carlyon Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
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4 Dashing Duchess (Bet Now: $1.90) is flying for Symon Wilde. Loved her win here two weeks ago, being near a solid speed throughout and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but gee she was strong and on the line, her win was quite dominant. She was a few weeks between runs there so has room for improvement and rates highly.
Danger
1 Too Close The Sun (Bet Now: $7.50) is working up to something positive I feel for Ciaron Maher. This gelding ran a fortnight back over 2040m here, making a sustained run from off the speed and closed to the line pretty well in defeat behind impressive winner Point King. Up to 2500m I like and strikes a winnable race.
Long Shot
3 Lordship (Bet Now: $4.40) seems to be getting better with racing down under for Price/Kent. Did enough on debut at Sandown before going to Flemington three weeks ago when an outsider but he ran a much improved race in defeat behind the very much in form Horrifying. Has good upside and has the right form.
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4 Last Druid (Bet Now: $5.00) should appreciate a rise back up to 1200m and is hard to beat. He was 1200m back to 1000m two weeks ago here and worked home with real purpose late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Blue Stratum. Back up in trip and better for the experience here, he is the one for me.
Danger
6 Daggers (Bet Now: $2.70) is progressive and heading in the right direction. Busuttin/Young trained colt that debuted at Sandown where he led throughout and he made an absolute mess of them, leading throughout and was so impressive, running decent time in winning by a space. Confident he can measure up here.
Long Shot
3 Rue De Royale (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Team McEvoy trained colt that resumes. He is still a maiden but did show good promise as a juvenile. His jumpout work has been more than encouraging and despite being suited over further, he should be strong at the end.
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2 Trunk (Bet Now: $3.40) will put himself on speed and give his all. He was knocking on the door to break his maiden and it came at Newcastle last time, leading throughout over 1400m and was quite strong to the line in winning. He stepped up in trip there and loved it, so 1500m here suits and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.
Danger
3 Lavalier (Bet Now: $6.00) is an interesting runner. James Cummings trains this son of Microphone, that was good on debut at Newcastle before going to Kembla Grange where he got off speed, but tracked up with purpose before angling clear and knuckle down with purpose late in the piece. Tick over trial last week was good and he’ll love the rise to 1500m.
Long Shot
6 Sammaan City (Bet Now: $9.50) has to be given another chance. Good in defeat two back over 1400m in the Ingot at Caulfield before coming back to a Terang Maiden where she was deep into the red but had every chance and was plain when third. I do think a rise in trip suits and this isn’t a deep race.
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1 Manolo Bling (Bet Now: $2.80) looks hard to beat. Team Freedman trained filly that was an electric debut winner at Caulfield a few weeks back, getting a suck run in transit behind the speed before angling clear and she made a mess of them late to win and win well. Good test, but confident she measures up.
Danger
2 Immortal Star (Bet Now: $4.40) looks hard to beat here for Danny O’Brien. She jumped out like a rocket prior to resuming here two weeks ago and I think had she not been tardy away, I think she wins the race instead of getting off speed, held up and charging late behind Blue Stratum. Fitter and up in trip, she appeals.
Long Shot
8 Too Darn Discreet (Bet Now: $13.00) has been in the blackbook for a while so I am keen to see how she goes. She resumes for Dan O’Sullivan after a two run Autumn prep, where she was a real eye catcher each time she stepped out, the latest at Caulfield behind Tropicus. Likely spots them a start but should be strong at the end.
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7 Lincoln Rocks (Bet Now: $3.10) is getting better with racing and it’s hard to get away from him. Lot of quality about his win two weeks ago here, producing a sustained run from off the speed and yes, he was out of tickets late, but Zahra had enough in hand to get him home. Hard to knock the way he’s going and is hard to beat.
Danger
4 New York Hurricane (Bet Now: $9.00) is one of the hardest to beat for Liam Howley. He looked so well placed a fortnight back at Morphettville, getting the suck run in transit and he looked the winner a fair way out, angling clear and finished best for a strong win. He can go on with it.
Long Shot
14 Commander Harry (Bet Now: $16.00) is dangerous. He was 1500m to 2040m when racing here two weeks back. He was on speed throughout and tried his guts out but he couldn’t quite see it through but was still game in defeat behind Lincoln Rocks. Better for the run, he appeals as a knockout chance.
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11 Step Aside (Bet Now: $3.50) should prove hard to beat for Chris Waller. Three weeks between runs since racing over the mile at Flemington when off speed and was good late in the piece behind the very much in form Rise At Dawn, who won again last Saturday so the form does read well and back to 78 grade, he appeals.
Danger
8 Regal Zeus (Bet Now: $4.60) will put himself on speed and looked to give his all, which he did a fortnight back at this track/distance when leading and giving a very strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through when second to Aspen Colorado. Good racing style, commands respect.
Long Shot
13 Nails Murphy (Bet Now: $8.00) looks one of the hardest to beat for Ciaron Maher. He ran a few weeks ago at Rosehill where he lobbed into a beaut spot just off the speed and loomed to win when presented, but first run in a few weeks, I just think he lacked the hard fitness to put them away when third to Secret Plan. Better for the run, he takes beating.
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2 Holymanz (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to be in for a good prep. Ciaron Maher trained gelding that resumed three weeks ago over 1400m at Flemington where it was pretty much a barrier trial for him, getting back, held up and only got clear late, finding the line strongly. More positive ride, he takes beating here.
Danger
8 St Lawrence (Bet Now: $9.00) is a beauty for Ciaron Maher but from a punters perspective, he is becoming costly. He ran at Flemington three weeks ago when off the speed and tried hard but he couldn’t quite reel them in behind Gentleman Roy, who won the PB Lawrence to frank the form. That has to read very well for this.
Long Shot
4 Rheinberg (Bet Now: $5.50) is three weeks between runs for Team Hayes since racing at Flemington where he had a stalking role behind the speed and tried hard but couldn’t finish the job when fourth to stablemate Gentleman Roy, who franked the form last Saturday. Genuine animal, leading chance.
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5 Mornington Glory (Bet Now: $3.00) has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. His win here two weeks ago…yes, not sure he beat a great deal, but the change up speed and the arrogance under J Kah was something else and he showed why he placed in the Oakleigh Plate in the Autumn. He can stamp himself as a Moir contender with a win here.
Danger
9 Bold Bastille (Bet Now: $3.50) is a sharp short course filly for Team Hayes that resumes. She is first up after a mixed Autumn where she looked cast early on but bounced back to string together wins, helped by ideal placement. No place to hide this Spring I feel and her recent jumpout was quite good. Keen to see how she goes.
Long Shot
2 Acromantula (Bet Now: $18.00) has credits in the bank to be forgiven for his flop here two weeks back when resuming. He did work on speed but that said, he was very weak late and that is not his go. He ran so well at this track this time last year and did win this race last year. Not penning him.
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8 Extratwo (Bet Now: $3.70) has returned well off a freshen up and appeals. Ciaron Maher trained mare who I think does save her best for The Valley and she was quite good in defeat two weeks ago at this track/distance, getting back off the speed, but her finale was strong in defeat behind Home Rule. Fitter, can settle closer, hard to beat.
Danger
2 Home Rule (Bet Now: $10.00) is a beauty for Maddie Raymond and commands some level of respect. He won here a fortnight back at this trip. He got into a dream sit in transit and presented to win on the turn, proving quite strong to the line in winning. Consistent animal and should be around the mark.
Long Shot
7 Why Worry (Bet Now: $12.00) will put himself on speed and give a decent sight. That was the case two weeks back at this track/distance when leading and while he was held late by Home Rule, he stuck on and was good in defeat. Dangerous at odds if this track is playing up/in.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 7 Lincoln Rocks
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Dashing Duchess
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 2 Holymanz
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 7, 8, 11, 13
Leg Two: 2, 4, 8, 9
Leg Three: 5
Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 8, 11
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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