Every NFL team has four games remaining on their 2024 regular-season schedule, and the Top 10 draft order race is just as tightly contested as the playoff races in each conference.
There are currently a pair of 2-11 teams and then six (!) clubs with 3-10 records. There’ll be a lot of jostling down the stretch between the Patriots, Panthers, Jaguars, Titans, Jets, and Browns.
Based mostly on remaining schedules — and many of these teams play each other — let’s attempt to pin down the final Top 10 order for the 2025 NFL Draft.
Here’s the current Top 10:
1. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
2. New York Giants (2-11)
3. New England Patriots (3-10)
4. Carolina Panthers (3-10)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
6. Tennessee Titans (3-10)
7. New York Jets (3-10)
8. Cleveland Browns (3-10)
9. Chicago Bears (4-9)
10. New Orleans Saints (5-8)
And these are the two clubs lingering right outside the Top 10 in the draft order, entering Week 15’s action:
11. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
12. Dallas Cowboys (5-8)
This is my predicted final Top 10 order, strongly considering — among other elements — the remaining schedules for each team, along with a prediction of each team’s final record.
Remaining games: vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers
SportsLine projected wins: 7
It’s a miracle the Saints have five wins at this stage of the season, given the ungodly amount of injuries their starting lineup has experienced in 2024. Derek Carr is now injured long-term and probably won’t play again this season.
And check that final month — reasonably daunting, although I like the Saints to beat the Raiders at home right after Christmas. There’s a strong likelihood the Saints will be starting Spencer Rattler at quarterback, and he’ll be throwing to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kevin Austin, and Cedrick Wilson down the stretch. At tight end will be Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau. Alvin Kamara could again win some fantasy leagues for his owners in late December. Finishing with the 10th overall pick would represent the third time in four years the Saints earned a Top 15 selection. It’s mostly been tough sledding since Drew Brees’ retirement.
Remaining games: at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers
SportsLine projected wins: 5
When the Bears hit the skids midway through this season, they felt like a reasonable rebound candidate because of how they were losing games. Instead, they invented new ways to lose for nearly a month then got trounced against a reeling 49ers team in San Francisco in Week 14.
And Chicago has the most perilous final stretch of the regular season, with road contests against the Vikings and Packers with clashes with the Lions and Seahawks in between. All playoff teams currently, and the Lions and Vikings have double-digit victories.
Now, let’s not forget, the Bears played Detroit and Minnesota snug in November, yet as Caleb Williams has slowly started to settle his play while connecting on more challenging throws than he did early in the season, Chicago’s once stingy defense has gotten porous. I have the Bears winning one of these games down the stretch to get to 5-12.
Remaining games: vs. Cowboys, vs. Cardinals, at Buccaneers, at Falcons
SportsLine projected wins: 5
The best worst team in the NFL is the Panthers. They’re 3-10, with the second-worst record in the NFC, but since Bryce Young has been reinserted into the starting lineup, Carolina has operated as an entirely new team. They beat the Saints and Giants in back-to-back weeks, lost 30-27 to the Chiefs at home, lost 26-23 in overtime to the Buccaneers, and were a dropped touchdown with a minute to go away from potentially upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia.
Young is at the center of this organizational turnaround (that still hasn’t yielded many victories). It hasn’t solely been about him. In the first seven weeks of the season, Carolina’s defense allowed nearly 35 points per game. Since Week 8, that average has sunk to 24.1 points per. The arrow, which was facing directly at the ground has been flipped toward the sky for six games for Young and Co. I wouldn’t even be stunned if they won three of their last five contests. That final month isn’t too arduous.
Remaining games: vs. Chiefs, at Bengals, vs. Dolphins, at Ravens
SportsLine projected wins: 4
As someone who believes in and has witnessed the impact Jameis Winston has had on Cleveland’s offense, I see them going 2-2 down the stretch. Deshaun Watson didn’t even have a 200-yard passing performance before his Achilles injury in 2024. Since becoming the starter in Week 8, Winston has thrown for over 300 yards on three occasions, including the NFL-high 497 eruption on the road in Denver in prime time.
The Browns defense is still nowhere near as effective as it has been the past two seasons — currently sitting at 22nd in EPA per play allowed in non-garbage time — yet we all know how Myles Garrett can destroy a game for an opposing offense. While Cleveland doesn’t have a cupcake schedule, they feel like the AFC’s version of the Panthers, a pesky club with legitimate spoiler capabilities.
Remaining games: vs. Bengals, at Colts, at Jaguars, vs. Texans
SportsLine projected wins: 5
The Titans have essentially no juice. There was a chance for said juice after a bananas victory over the Texans in Houston just a few weeks ago. Since then, they were run out of the building in a 42-19 loss to the Commanders then failed to score a touchdown at home in a 10-6 loss to the Jaguars in Week 14.
Will Levis does flash. Absolutely does. But the game plans have gotten so conservative and screen-based, if he doesn’t connect on the one or two chances he gets to make a spectacular play, his performance looks brutal. The defense is hardly formidable, and the offensive line is in the running for worst in the league.
The Titans could squeeze in one victory down the stretch, but I don’t feel super-confident about it. This team needs an overhaul this offseason.
Remaining games: at Jaguars, vs. Rams, at Bills, vs. Dolphins
SportsLine projected wins: 5
The Jets were 3-2. They’ve lost eight in a row and are already out of playoff contention. What happens from here? Does Aaron Rodgers finish the season as the starter? How about the rest of New York’s stars, like Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, and Garrett Wilson. Heck, with that many plus players, it seems impossible this team only has three wins entering Week 15.
Because of said talent, and that I don’t believe they’ll all be preserved for next season over this final month, I have the Jets winning at least one game in their final four. Could be two, and it’ll start this week on the road against the Jaguars, although their only road victory came in Tennessee Week 2.
Remaining games: vs. Jets, at Raiders, vs. Titans, at Colts
SportsLine projected wins: 5
Mac Jones hasn’t played horrible football as the injury stand-in for Trevor Lawrence. Yet he’s throwing to Brian Thomas Jr. — who’s electric — and low-level starters and practice-squad types. The defense sits at 28th in EPA per play allowed this season in non-garbage time scenarios. Remarkably, Aidan Hutchinson still has more pressures (45) this year than Travon Walker (41), and the Lions superstar hasn’t been on the field since Week 6.
The end-of-season schedule is reasonably unchallenging for this Jacksonville team. Yet I only envision one win in the final four, and it’ll come in one of the next three games, two of which are at home.
Remaining games: at Cardinals, at Bills, vs. Chargers, vs. Bills
SportsLine projected wins: 4
Drake Maye has provided the Patriots an ample amount of wow plays as a rookie, although they’ve been counteracted by a fair amount of classic rookie mistakes. This is not a completely dysfunctional team that’ll just lay down for any contender in its path, yet the lack of overall talent, especially along the offensive line, makes it extremely challenging for New England to win games.
After a strong start to the 2024 season, I’ve been surprised at how susceptible Jerod Mayo’s defense has been collectively. As we enter Week 15, the Patriots are 30th in EPA per play allowed in non-garbage time and are 20th in points per game allowed. It’ll be fascinating to see how those two Bills games in a three-week span play out, although it’s likely Buffalo will be playing for seeding in that regular-season finale.
Remaining games: vs. Falcons, vs. Jaguars, at Saints, vs. Chargers
SportsLine projected wins: 3.5
The Raiders have jumped back and forth between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell this season, and now they’re both dinged up. While we aren’t sure who’ll start for Week 15’s game at home against the Falcons, I view this at times pesky Raiders club as one that can muster two wins in the final month of the season, and that’s almost strictly based on the ease of their schedule.
The Chargers are almost assuredly going to be fighting for playoff-seed positioning in that final contest on the road in Las Vegas, thereby making that contest significantly tougher than if Los Angeles were to be locked into a spot, ready to rest its starters. Then again, Jim Harbaugh doesn’t strike me as a guy who’d rest starters in any scenario.
Remaining games: vs. Ravens, at Falcons, vs. Colts, at Eagles
SportsLine projected wins: 3
What an abysmal season for the Giants that was a dropped Malik Nabers pass in Week 2 away from potentially beating the Commanders. They beat the Watson-led Browns and got a strange victory in Seattle. Then injuries enveloped this team, again, and they understandably pulled the plug on Daniel Jones. Fortunately for New York, its 2024 draft class looks tremendous — Nabers, cornerback Dru Phillips, and running back Tyrone Tracy feel like foundational pieces.
I have the Giants either winning in Atlanta or at home against Indianapolis but not both contests. Given how anemic the offense has been lately, and now with Tommy DeVito back as the starting quarterback, I’m being kind suggesting they’ll secure one victory down the stretch, although this very well could be a 2-15 team.
