The 2025 Kentucky Derby is quickly approaching with just 11 weeks remaining until the starting gate opens for the Run for the Roses on May 3 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. And on Friday, betting on Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opened, offering betting interests on 39 individual horses and a 40th on all other 3-year-olds not included among the 39. Pool 4 will close on Sunday at 6 p.m. ET.
Bob Baffert, who has won the Derby a record-tying six times — not including 2021 when his Medina Spirit was disqualified from first — but has been suspended from Churchill Downs the last three years, trains the top two choices in Pool 4: Citizen Bull (6-1) and Barnes (8-1). But neither Citizen Bull, the 2024 juvenile champion, nor Barnes, a $3.2 million purchase, offers value at those prices, considering they’re not even guaranteed to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
However, there are multiple horses in Pool 4 that are worth considering at big prices. Here are my top five, listed in order of preference.
28 River Thames (25-1)
This Todd Pletcher trainee arguably is the best Pletcher 3-year-old. He is a perfect 2-for-2, already has run a 94 Beyer Speed Figure and figures to move forward off his last start, which came on just three weeks rest. He is set to make his next start in the Fountain of Youth on March 1. Most importantly, his price already has climbed to more than 60-1 in early wagering.
29 Rodriguez (20-1)
Trainer Bob Baffert has an army of Kentucky Derby contenders, but I think the best value is on Rodriguez. A son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, Rodriguez already has won around two turns with a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. In his last start, he couldn’t catch stablemate and reigning juvenile champion Citizen Bull, but that one benefited from setting a soft early pace that day. Baffert has always said that he expects Rodriguez to improve over the course of the year, just like his sire did, which would make Rodriguez a serious threat to come away with the blanket of roses. Best of all, he already is up to more than 50-1 in the early wagering.
24 Patch Adams (30-1)
I’m not giving up on this Brad Cox trainee yet. Last year, this son of Into Mischief ran a Beyer Speed Figure of 98, which was the second-highest number earned by a 2-year-old in 2024. I can’t ignore that kind of talent, especially when he’s in the hands of Cox, one of the top trainers in the country. I realize Patch Adams ran a disappointing fourth in the Southwest Stakes to start of 2025, but the goal is the first Saturday in May, not the fourth Saturday in January. His price also has skyrocketed to more than 50-1 in the early wagering.
21 Journalism (20-1)
After winning the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, Journalism spiked a temperature, which set back his training temporarily. But he has returned to the worktab and is on track to run in the San Felipe Stakes on March 1 at Santa Anita. This grinder needs to get faster; his best Beyer Speed Figure so far is an 87. But sons and daughters of Curlin tend to get faster as they get older and stretch out in distance. In early wagering, his price was hovering around 30-1.
10 East Avenue (15-1)
Here’s the deal: East Avenue, already one of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, is set to run in the Risen Star Stakes on Saturday. If he wins — and he is the heavy 9-5 favorite — his price in Pool 5 will shorten to well below 15-1, maybe even below 10-1. And in that case, I don’t want to bet a dime on East Avenue in the future wager, which closes on Sunday night. However if he loses, and I think there’s a good chance that he will, his price will go in the opposite direction. This second scenario is the one in which I’m most interested.
I doubt that trainer Brendan Walsh will have East Avenue 100% cranked up to win the Risen Star when there are much bigger goals in mind down the road, such as the Kentucky Derby. But I fully expect East Avenue to be better in his starts after the Risen Star. This may sound counterintuitive, but I want East Avenue in Pool 4 if he loses Saturday (and his price climbs to 20-1 or more), and I don’t want him if he wins on Saturday (and his price shortens to 10-1 or less).
Others to consider: Sand Devil (40-1), Sandman (40-1) and Burnham Square (20-1).
| Prg # | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Barnes | 8-1 |
| 2 | Built | 30-1 |
| 3 | Burnham Square | 20-1 |
| 4 | Captain Cook | 20-1 |
| 5 | Chance McPatrick | 25-1 |
| 6 | Citizen Bull | 6-1 |
| 7 | Coal Battle | 40-1 |
| 8 | Cyclone State | 50-1 |
| 9 | Disco Time | 25-1 |
| 10 | East Avenue | 15-1 |
| 11 | Ferocious | 50-1 |
| 12 | First Report | 40-1 |
| 13 | Gaming | 40-1 |
| 14 | Gate to Wire | 30-1 |
| 15 | Getaway Car | 80-1 |
| 16 | Grande | 30-1 |
| 17 | Hypnus | 80-1 |
| 18 | Innovator | 50-1 |
| 19 | John Hancock | 25-1 |
| 20 | Jonathan’s Way | 50-1 |
| 21 | Journalism | 20-1 |
| 22 | Keep It Easy | 50-1 |
| 23 | Legitimate | 80-1 |
| 24 | Patch Adams | 30-1 |
| 25 | Poster | 40-1 |
| 26 | Praetor | 50-1 |
| 27 | Rapture | 50-1 |
| 28 | River Thames | 25-1 |
| 29 | Rodriguez | 20-1 |
| 30 | San Saba | 40-1 |
| 31 | Sand Devil | 40-1 |
| 32 | Sandman | 40-1 |
| 33 | Sorcerer’s Silver | 80-1 |
| 34 | Sovereignty | 20-1 |
| 35 | Speed King | 30-1 |
| 36 | Tappan Street | 40-1 |
| 37 | Tip Top Thomas | 50-1 |
| 38 | Tiztastic | 80-1 |
| 39 | Vassimo | 50-1 |
| 40 | All Other 3-Year-Olds | 9-2 |
