This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the Australian Open continues Saturday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it’s still Friday night in the United States. Americans in both the men’s and women’s draws will look to pull off upsets on a busy day for the red, white and blue, while a former top-five player on the men’s side is regaining his form and a top-five women’s seed will try to continue justifying her lofty ranking.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men’s singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women’s singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Danielle Collins (+200) vs. Madison Keys
Collins is a surprisingly significant underdog in this battle among top-20 seeded Americans, in which Collins is the higher ranked player. Both are big hitters, and while Keys has more firepower, especially on the serve, Collins is better at constructing points and more capable of adjusting strategies when things aren’t going according to plan. While each of these women has reached at least the semifinals of the Australian Open twice, Collins is the only one of the two to reach the final here, having done so in 2022. Keys leads their head-to-head 2-1 overall, but they have split two previous hard-court meetings. The key to this match will likely be Keys’ first serve, as she can earn free points with it if she opts to go big but will be at the mercy of Collins’ aggressive second-serve returns if Keys fails to make a high percentage of first serves.
Alex Michelsen (+135) vs. Karen Khachanov
This has the early makings of a breakout season for Michelsen, as the 20-year-old American already has a signature win in this tournament over 2023 Australian Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Michelsen’s poised to continue his climb from his current No. 42 ranking. He still has plenty of room to improve his serve, but Michelsen’s an outstanding mover for 6-foot-4 and can go toe to toe from the baseline with the 6-foot-6 Khachanov. Back issues have sapped some of the effectiveness from Khachanov’s serve, and after the 19th-ranked Russian made two semifinals and a quarterfinal in the three Grand Slams immediately preceding his absence at Wimbledon in 2023, Khachanov has gone just 7-5 in Grand Slam play since.
Honorable Mention
Emma Raducanu (+700) vs. Iga Swiatek
Holger Rune (-240) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Rune has a 38-spot edge in the rankings over the 51st-ranked Kecmanovic, and the 21-year-old Dane may not be outside the top 10 much longer, as he was ranked as high as No. 4 in August of 2023 and seems to be getting his mojo back. Rather than lose focus as he was wont to do during a disappointing 2024 season, Rune has stepped up and battled when faced with adversity in this tournament, overcoming Zhizhen Zhang 6-4 in the fifth set in a first-round battle and pulling out an 8-6 tiebreak in the fourth set against Matteo Berrettini to avoid going the distance again in the second round. Both of those players are ranked ahead of Kecmanovic, who has a pedestrian 24-23 career record in Grand Slams, posted sub-.500 ATP Tour records in both 2023 and 2024, and is 1-7 in his last eight matches against top-15 opponents.
Ben Shelton (-175) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
The outlook for this match would be completely different on another surface, but Shelton’s at his best on hard courts while Musetti prefers them the least. The 20-year-old American has won over 61 percent of his career hard-court matches while posting sub-.500 records on both grass and clay, while Musetti has the opposite splits, with a .472 mark on hard courts and win rates north of 61 percent on both clay and grass. The Italian shotmaker’s prowess on other surfaces explains Musetti’s five-spot edge in the rankings, but Shelton’s power plays up in this environment. Shelton has already made a hard-court Grand Slam semifinal in his career at the U.S. Open, while Musetti’s trying to get past the third round for the first time in eight main-draw appearances in hard-court majors. Musetti normally handles big servers well since his excellent hands help him block the ball back effectively, but Shelton’s ability to complement power with variation on his lefty delivery coupled with his willingness to move forward behind the serve should help counteract Musetti’s strength as a returner.
Honorable Mention
Taylor Fritz (-700) vs. Gael Monfils
Jasmine Paolini (-150) vs. Elina Svitolina
It’s remarkable that these women are less than 16 months apart in age considering Svitolina feels like she’s been around forever while the late-blooming Paolini just broke out last year at age 28. Svitolina has one of the highest floors on the WTA Tour, but she lacks the weapons to break through against top players on the biggest stage, as illustrated by her 1-7 career record in Grand Slam quarterfinals outside of Wimbledon. The fourth-ranked Paolini certainly qualifies as a top player considering the Italian’s coming off runner-up finishes at both the French Open and Wimbledon last year, and her WTA 1000 title in Dubai last year showed Paolini’s just as capable of thriving on hard courts. This match should feature plenty of physical, extended rallies, but Paolini’s edge in speed and greater willingness to get on the front foot should give her the edge over Svitolina, who is just a half-step behind her prime form and has consequently dropped from a top-10 staple to 27th in the rankings.
Fabian Marozsan (+105) vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Both of these players have had to grind to get here, as Marozsan has notched five-set wins over Thiago Seyboth Wild and No. 17 seed Frances Tiafoe, while Sonego outlasted Stan Wawrinka 6-4, 5-7, 7-5, 7-5 in the first round before eliminating rookie sensation Joao Fonseca in a five-setter. There isn’t much currently separating these two entertaining shot makers, with Sonego holding a slim four-spot edge in the rankings at No. 55, but the 25-year-old Marozsan is four and a half years younger and has more untapped potential compared to Sonego judging by their results in big tournaments. Sonego is into the third round of a hard-court Grand Slam for only the second time in 14 tries, while Marozsan reached the third round of the Australian Open in his main-draw debut here last year and is looking to improve on that result. Marozsan has also made two hard-court Masters 1000 quarterfinals since October of 2023, while Sonego has never gotten that far in a Masters 1000 event on this surface.
Honorable Mention
Eva Lys (-165) vs. Jaqueline Cristian
