The crisp autumn air and looming dread of needing to untangle all of your Christmas lights currently mangled in a box somewhere in the depths of your basement can mean only one thing: The NFL playoffs are right around the corner.
You could really feel that notion in Week 11, where there were a handful of playoff-caliber games. Of course, the showdown in Buffalo between the Bills and Chiefs had that playoff-type atmosphere, as did Ravens-Steelers and even Bengals-Chargers on Sunday night. As we inch toward December and the standings tighten, we should be in store for even more of this action.
As we zero in on the playoff race, it’s admittedly an interesting year in the AFC. While we’re only just coming out of Week 11, the division leaders are starting to separate themselves.
The Bills and Chiefs both have sizable leads in the AFC East and AFC West, respectively. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are well positioned ahead of the Colts and own the head-to-head tiebreaker after completing the season sweep back in Week 8. As for the AFC North, it’s the tightest of the bunch, but the Steelers did just gain sole possession of first place and currently have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Baltimore with one more matchup to go in Week 16.
So, three out of the four divisions seem as close to being locked up as they can be at this time of the year, which sets the stage for a fascinating showdown for the three wild-card spots in the conference. Here, we’ll be diving into that race and outright ranking the teams currently vying for those positions. Of course, the current division leaders will be omitted from this conversation, given they don’t factor into this conversation at the moment.
Before we get into the rankings, however, let’s take a look at where the AFC playoff race stands coming out of Week 11.
Alright, let’s get to the rankings!
Jim Harbaugh has done an outstanding job turning this franchise around in relatively short order and has Justin Herbert playing at an elite level. Not only that, but the defense is among the best in the league. L.A. is holding opponents to a 32.3% conversion rate on third down this year and a 40.9% touchdown rate when they are in the red zone, which are both the second-fewest in the league. Meanwhile, their 14.5 points per game allowed is the fewest in the league. Couple that with a solid ground attack on offense and elite talent at the quarterback position, and the Chargers could be frisky against whichever team they meet in the playoffs.
When you have two legitimate MVP candidates on your offense, you’re doing something right. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has made Baltimore’s offense one of the more explosive units in the league. Coming out of Week 11, Jackson has a league-best 117.3 passer rating and is currently on pace to have career passing marks essentially across the board, which is astounding given he already has two MVP awards on his mantel. Meanwhile, the arrival of Henry has only made the offense more maddening to deal with, as the veteran back already has topped 1,000 rushing for the year to go along with double-digit touchdowns. While he’s been prolific this season, Henry was brought aboard to help grind out games in the playoffs, which he’s in a position to do.
The only reason why Baltimore isn’t claiming the top spot amongst these potential wild-card teams is because of its pass defense. The Ravens are giving up a league-worst 284.5 passing yards per game. In a playoff setting where they will be tasked with taking on elite quarterback after elite quarterback, this could be what holds them back from making a deep run.
If we were putting these teams into tiers, I’d have the Chargers and Ravens together at the top. After that, I’d have the Broncos in a tier by themselves, and I’d like them to ultimately claim one of the wild-card spots, marking an improbable playoff run that not many expected to begin this season. They have a clear advantage at the head coaching spot over the likes of Miami, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis, as Sean Payton is squeezing every ounce of talent out of his roster.
While he hasn’t been as dynamic as some other rookie quarterbacks, Bo Nix has been playing well enough to get Denver over .500 on the season, and he just exploded for 307 yards and four passing touchdowns in a dominating win against Atlanta on Sunday. With Payton helping that offense along the way and pairing it with a defense that is leading the NFL in fewest yards per play allowed (4.6), Denver is feisty! Its schedule also sets up favorably to pull away from these other contenders over the next month: at Raiders (Week 12), vs. Browns (Week 13), BYE (Week 14), vs. Colts (Week 15).
Miami’s season was turned on its head when Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion, which landed him on injured reserve. What made the Dolphins losing their franchise quarterback for four weeks sting even more was that it came during a soft part in their schedule, and they wound up going 1-3 without him. With a healthy Tagovailoa, it’s conceivable they win three of those four, if not sweep that stretch outright, and change the AFC playoff picture as we see it today.
Upon his return, they lost back-to-back games by a combined total of four points, further highlighting how finicky a season can be. All that creates an uphill climb to make the playoffs, but they do benefit from having the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the league, so it’s not out of the question.
While we know how good the offense can be when it’s firing on all cylinders, it will be worth monitoring Tyreek Hill as he’s playing through a wrist injury at the moment. If that gets worse and forces him to miss time, that’ll further lower this team’s ceiling and ability to claim a wild-card spot. That said, if they can stay healthy, they do have a defense that pairs well with their high-flying offense. This season, Miami’s defense is a top-10 unit in red zone efficiency (48.2% conversion rate), third-down efficiency (35% conversion rate), and total yards allowed per game (308.0).
Given that the Bengals have one of the best five quarterbacks in the league in Joe Burrow, it’s sort of astounding they have fallen as far as they have. However, following a Week 11 loss to the Chargers, they are on the brink of falling out of the playoff conversation entirely if they haven’t reached that point already. This season, Cincinnati has been a middling team that has simply beaten up bad teams and struggled against true contenders. Six of their seven losses have been against playoff teams, with the lone exception being their Week 1 loss at home to New England. Meanwhile, all four of their wins have come against below .500 teams.
While the combination of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is liable to light up any opposing secondary it faces, that’s about all the Bengals can throw at their opponent. Defensively, Cincinnati can’t stop a nosebleed, allowing 26.9 points per game (28th), a 44.37% conversion rate on third downs (27th) and a remarkable 70.59% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone (31st). Even if they got into the playoffs, that defense would likely send them packing in short order.
The Colts have a better record than Miami and Cincinnati, but there’s more instability with them, which is why I placed them at the bottom of these rankings. The Colts have jockeyed their quarterbacks around a lot this season, and while Anthony Richardson looked good in his return as a starter in Week 11, we’ll need to see more before we start buying into his ability to crash the playoff party in the AFC. After all, Indy was playing against a Jets team ready to quit on the season (if they haven’t already). It’ll be far more telling how he performs over the next month against the likes of the Detroit Lions (Week 12) and Denver Broncos (Week 15).
Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense isn’t much to write home about, ranking 28th in the league in total yards allowed per game (374.5). Any division winner would likely be thrilled to see them walk into their stadium during Super Wild Card Weekend, which is essentially all you need to know.
