Odds: -400 | Drafted: Round 1, No. 2 overall 

After that glowing intro, it might surprise some that I still have Daniels as my leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year. My reasoning is simple: The depth of dominance still favors the Commanders’ signal-caller. Yes, Daniels’ play has dipped for two weeks, but that was partially because of the defenses faced. The other issue: He played through a rib injury that has surely affected the play-calling. Daniels has been less dynamic with his legs in recent weeks, as defenses key on that part of his game and coordinator Kliff Kingsbury appears to consciously try to protect the QB.

Two games make not a season.

Again, the door for Nix might have gone from shut to ajar — per Pro Football Focus, Nix has splashed 12 big-time throws to Daniels’ 11, while both QBs have recorded six turnover-worthy plays, leading to a turnover-worthy play rate of 1.6 percent for Daniels and 1.5 percent for Nix — but it’s not been kicked wide open yet. Daniels still has far more positives. For the season, Daniels has generated 67.1 total EPA and 0.18 EPA per dropback. Nix sits with marks of -34.2 and -0.08, respectively. Nix has one game with more than a 0.10 EPA per dropback (Sunday against Atlanta, when he posted 0.61). Daniels has eight such games, with a high of 0.68 in the win over Cincinnati. In games he’s finished, Daniels has produced a negative EPA per dropback just twice. Nix has done it five times.

Recency bias shouldn’t make us forget that Daniels led an offense that didn’t punt for more than two complete games. His downtrodden franchise was facing a ton of question marks entering the season, and he negated most of those. His calmness in the pocket has been otherworldly, and he’s helping overcome a defense that has clear holes. It’s still his award to lose.