• Lamar Jackson is in the lead to win his second straight MVP: The Ravens star is on track to record career-highs in overall and passing grade, grading as the NFL’s best quarterback in 2024.
• Could Saquon Barkley be the first non-MVP since 2012?: Barkley was magnificent on Sunday Night Football, but his candidacy might not be as strong as others’.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches and the 2024 NFL regular season winds down, certain teams are beginning to elevate themselves into a higher echelon (looking at you, Lions and Bills). In many ways, that’s nothing unusual, but what is somewhat rare is not having a clear MVP frontrunner this late in the year.
While roughly 10 players will still feel like they have a shot at winning the award, it’s hard to truly pinpoint one who is light-years ahead of the rest. That may not be ideal for clarity’s sake, but it should make for an enticing finish.
Based on the football we’ve been treated to in 2024, here’s a breakdown of the top candidates for the NFL’s most prestigious award.
There doesn’t seem to be an appropriate amount of buzz surrounding Jackson winning his second straight MVP. Maybe it’s because of a bad performance against the Steelers in Week 11 or innate voter fatigue, but the Ravens star appears at the top of the ballot through this point.
Jackson’s 91.9 overall PFF grade and 90.3 passing grade are both the best in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. Not only are those marks tops for his position, but they would also be career-high marks if the season ended today.
That’s right — Jackson has been better than ever, including in his MVP campaigns in 2023 and 2019. Plus, he ranks third in PFF’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric through 12 weeks of the campaign.
The Ravens sit at 8-4 with a 94% chance to make the playoffs and a 50% chance to win the AFC North. Baltimore has a very legitimate argument to be a top-three, if not top-two, team in the AFC. Almost all of that is derived from Jackson, who hasn’t slowed down at all.
Your first thought when reading this was probably, But the Bengals are 4-7! Yes, team record does inherently play a role in award voting, but that feels like a bit of a misnomer surrounding Burrow.
As historical PFF data reveals, Burrow has been one of the best quarterbacks in the last 15 years on a team with a record as bad as his. The Cincy star is the clear, outright leader in WAR (2.92) across all NFL players, and his 90.4 overall grade ranks second among quarterbacks.
The Bengals would probably have to sneak into the playoffs — which they have just a 10% chance of doing — for Burrow to receive legitimate consideration for this honor. Even if Cincy falls short of the stick, the former Heisman winner has compiled a sensational season — and his team’s record isn’t a reflection of just how good he’s been.
Herbert had already entrenched himself among the league’s premier quarterbacks, but it feels like he’s found ways to somehow reset benchmarks for his own standards this year. His 6.3% big-time throw rate is the fourth-highest and would mark a career-high by 1.3 percentage points. Likewise, Herbert ranks fourth in passing grade (85.6) and seventh in WAR (1.68).
A major component of the MVP race is play down the stretch, and Herbert already has a significant leg up on the rest of the field in that regard. Since Week 6, only Jackson has posted a higher overall grade (92.1) than Herbert, during which the Chargers star has tossed 18 big-time throws to only five turnover-worthy plays.
Los Angeles has been one of the better stories in football, sitting 7-4 and with a 90% chance to reach the postseason in Jim Harbaugh’s first year. While Jesse Minter’s defense deserves its plaudits, this team operates around Herbert, who’s found ways to elevate a subpar running game and below-average receiving room.
Could 2024 be the first time a non-quarterback wins MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012? It’s more plausible than most seasons, but it’s probably still unlikely. Still, if there were to be anyone to pull it off, Barkley would have to top the list.
In his first season with the Eagles, Barkley has been almost unstoppable. His 86.8 overall grade ranks fifth among all running backs, not to mention a career-high — as is his 87.0 rushing grade. Barkley slots top-two among all running backs with 776 yards after contact, 29 rushes of 10-plus yards and 16 runs of 15-plus yards.
However, there are a few caveats with Barkley’s MVP case. For one, he plays behind arguably the best offensive line in football, which has paved the way for a league-high mark in yards before first contact.
When Peterson won MVP in 2012, these were his stats: 92.4 overall grade, 92.5 rushing grade, 2,314 scrimmage yards, 0.37 WAR. Barkley isn’t quite there yet, but if he maintains this pace (or transcends it), he’ll have a shot at doing something nobody has in 12 years.
The Bills are 9-2 and arguably the best team in the AFC, as well as one of the most well-rounded groups in football. Much of that has to do with Allen, who has been as sensational as ever in 2024.
Allen’s 84.7 overall grade ranks seventh among qualifying quarterbacks, and his 91.8 rushing grade is the best at the position. On top of that, his 7.1% big-time throw rate is the best in the NFL.
Yet, Allen actually hasn’t been as good as we’ve seen him over the last few years. This year would mark his first finishing below a 90.0 overall grade since 2019; the same applies to his 75.3 passing grade, as Allen hasn’t ended a year below 81.9 in that category since his second in the league. Along similar lines, Allen’s 1.28 WAR ranks only 14th among quarterbacks.
It feels as though Allen has a legitimate MVP case based on being slighted from the award in the last few years. However, if we were to assess his candidacy using only his 2024 stats, Allen doesn’t feel like a bona fide leader.
The Commanders have hit a rough patch over the last three weeks, dropping each of their matchups and bringing their once-soaring momentum to a grinding halt. Still, their 7-5 record and 68% chance to make the playoffs is almost entirely due to Daniels, who’s been exceptional as a rookie.
Daniels’ 88.5 overall grade ranks third among qualifying quarterbacks, and his 1.81 WAR sits fifth among all NFL players. The star newcomer bounced back well from consecutive down outings with an 86.5 overall grade against the Cowboys in Week 12, even in a Washington loss. In fact, there’s a legitimate case that Daniels is enjoying the best rookie quarterback season since Russell Wilson in 2012 — and PFF data would back that.
Yes, the energy surrounding Washington has shifted in a much more negative direction. But if the Commanders still reach the postseason and Daniels plays at a similar level, he should stay atop the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. The way he’s upgraded the Commanders’ quarterback play in one year renders him one of the more valuable players in football, even if he probably won’t win MVP.
Smith is a name who probably won’t pop up on many MVP radars elsewhere, but he’s still putting together a season worth recognizing. His 2.12 WAR is the second-highest in football, and his 80.6 passing grade is the sixth-best among qualified quarterbacks.
It is true that Smith has fallen victim to some costly unforced errors, especially turnovers in the red zone. But, his 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate is tied for the 11th-lowest in the league — and is much lower than his 3.6% rate last year.
Smith has galvanized the Seahawks to a 6-5 record and a first-place standing in the NFC West, all while experiencing the sixth-highest pressure rate. He may not have a strong chance to actually win the award, but he deserves praise and a mention.
What diminishes Barkley’s — and every other running back’s — MVP case is that Henry has largely been just as prolific. In his first year in Baltimore, the 30-year-old has looked almost better than ever. His 91.9 overall grade is the best among all running backs, plus a career-high. He’s also top-two in rushing grade (91.3), yards after contact (784), 15-plus-yard runs (17) and first downs (60).
At the same time, Henry’s 0.11 WAR is tied for ninth among all running backs. That’s primarily fueled by his limited receiving contributions (62.4 receiving grade and 96 receiving yards).
Henry should remain a viable candidate for Offensive Player of the Year, but he isn’t even the best MVP candidate on his own team. On top of that, Barkley has probably put together a more impressive resume to this point, and it doesn’t feel like Henry will get particularly close to Peterson’s 2012 candidacy.
