Uncommon Knowledge
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The 2024 NBA Draft begins on Wednesday, June 26, with coverage of the event on ESPN and ABC beginning at 8 p.m. ET. This year’s draft will take place over two days, as Round 2 will take place on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The bad news for hoops fans is that this year’s class is widely considered much less talented than last year’s, which featured not only Victor Wembanyama but two other big names in the top three in Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson.
The silver lining amid all the question marks around this year’s top prospects is that there are plenty of high-upside bets to be made on the top picks.
Oddsmakers consider Zaccharie Risacher the clear favorite to go No. 1 to the Atlanta Hawks (his odds are -250 or shorter across the board), but Donovan Clingan and Alexandre Sarr are in the mix at 6-to-1 or shorter in most places.
Risacher, the 6-foot-8, 19-year-old French forward, doesn’t feel like a total lock, but he’s been the favorite to go No. 1 for a while, and nothing to date has indicated there will be a last-minute surprise when the Hawks hit the podium.
Prediction: Zaccharie Risacher (best odds -250 at FanDuel, BetMGM)
There’s a strong consensus among oddsmakers regarding Washington’s preference. Based on the odds entering the draft, French big man Alexandre Sarr, who is coming off a strong season with Australian NBL club Perth, is a lock to go to the Wizards. As of Wednesday afternoon, Sarr was -700 at BetMGM, -1100 at FanDuel and -750 at DraftKings to go No. 2.
Sarr, a 19-year-old 7-footer who moves well and profiles as a quality defender in the NBA, if nothing else. If he continues to improve as a shooter (he made 29.8% of his 3-point attempts per game for Perth in ’23-24), he offers substantial upside for Washington.
Let’s go with the chalk, again, at No. 2.
Prediction: Alexandre Sarr (best odds -700 at BetMGM)
No. 3 is where the 2024 NBA Draft really gets interesting, as the young Rockets are not exactly hurting for young pieces.
Houston’s top eight rotation players in ’23-24 included six aged 22 or younger. Its intentions are that much harder to parse given all the first-round picks it has in the years to come after its pick swap with Brooklyn following the Nets’ deal that sent Mikal Bridges to the Knicks on Tuesday.
The Rockets now have multiple first-round picks in ’25 and ’27, which could allow them to make a deal to add a veteran to join the young nucleus of Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr.
All of that is to say that there is good reason to stay away from this market.
But anyone insisting on wagering on this pick should consider big man Donovan Clingan. He could be a target for a team seeking a high-floor, defensive-minded big and willing to trade up into Houston’s spot. Clingan’s odds have shortened dramatically since Tuesday, when they were as long as +330 at DraftKings.
Prediction: Donovan Clingan (best odds +220) at BetMGM.
Picking who gets selected at a given pick is not the only way to bet on this draft. LeBron’s son Bronny James has his own category of draft props at most sportsbooks, and it’s also possible to bet on a number of other players’ draft positions.
There’s solid upside to banking on Clingan going inside the top 3. He proved over two years at UConn that he’s a tremendous shot blocker and rebounder, and he’s athletic enough to tempt someone to spend a high pick on him — even if they have to trade up to do so — especially amid a class full of question marks.
With Risacher and Sarr apparent locks at No. 1 and No. 2, the question is whether it’s Sheppard or Clingan who goes to the Rockets (or someone else, via trade) at No. 3.
Former Kentucky star Reed Sheppard’s shooting gives him a ton of upside, but at under 6-foot-2, he’s an undersized point guard, which should give teams pause about taking him in the top 3.
Staying in the SEC, Tennessee product Dalton Knecht has been widely linked to the Charlotte Hornets at No. 6. Whether it’s Charlotte or another team who takes the 6-foot-6 sharpshooter, don’t expect a player with Knecht’s combination of size, shooting and ability to get to the rim to last past No. 7.
The most dominant player in college basketball the last two years, the 7-foot-4 Edey, has divided opinion throughout the draft process.
While his size and eye-popping stats throughout his career at Purdue make him a safe bet to go somewhere in the first round, questions about how he fits the current version of the NBA should drop Edey to at least No. 16 or later.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
