This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The second Grand Slam of 2024 begins Sunday, May 26 from the clay courts of Paris. The men’s draw at the French Open looks as wide open as it has at any point in the last two decades, with injuries and poor form creating uncertainty at the top, while the women’s draw has a clear favorite in Iga Swiatek. Carlos Alcaraz is the slight favorite on the men’s side despite battling a forearm injury lately, while Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner isn’t far behind in the odds despite a hip injury of his own. Novak Djokovic is the healthiest of the three favorites on the men’s side, but he has also looked the least impressive in 2024, while a surging dark horse could offer substantial value. Swiatek is favored over the field as she goes for a fourth French Open title in five years, with Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina leading the next tier of women’s contenders.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at Roland Garros, let’s acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. While some big names may be at less than 100 percent, there aren’t too many major injuries ravaging the top of the men’s game, though Jiri Lehecka (back), Nick Kyrgios (wrist), Marin Cilic (knee) and Matteo Berrettini (illness) will all miss the French Open. On the women’s side, fifth-ranked Jessica Pegula (neck/back), 2023 French Open finalist Karolina Muchova (wrist) and Jennifer Brady (knee) all remain unavailable due to injuries, while Petra Kvitova and Belinda Bencic will miss this tournament on account of their pregnancies. Former world No. 1 Garbine Muguruza announced her retirement in April, while 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu has fallen out of the top 100 and will miss this tournament to focus on the grass season. On the bright side, 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu is slated to make her season debut after having recovered from a back injury.
After each player’s name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (DK), FanDuel Sportsbook (FD), BetMGM (BetMGM) and Caesars Sportsbook (Caesars) in that order. These odds have been updated as of Friday afternoon. The odds can vary substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz [DK: (+260), FD: (+250), BetMGM: (+275), Caesars: (+225)] – With Rafael Nadal and Djokovic both past their primes, Alcaraz is the world’s best clay-court player when he’s at his best, with a career win rate of over 80 percent on the surface. The 21-year-old Spaniard will need to shake off some rust at Roland Garros to find his A-game, as a forearm injury has limited Alcaraz to only one tournament appearance in the last two months. The No. 3 seed is looking to add a first French Open title to his 2022 US Open crown and 2023 Wimbledon title. Alcaraz has a tricky potential third-round opponent in Sebastian Korda, but possible fourth-round opponents Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime prefer other surfaces. No. 6 seed Andrey Rublev is used to quarterfinal exits (0-10 in Grand Slam quarterfinals) while Alcaraz is 5-0 in his career against No. 9 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, so Alcaraz should get through either of those guys in the quarters and be pretty fresh for Sinner in the semis and whomever awaits in the final. How far Alcaraz goes is more dependent on his own form than his opponents.
In the Mix
Novak Djokovic [DK: (+330), FD: (+340), BetMGM: (+300), Caesars: (+275)] – Djokovic is the No. 1 seed and defending champion, but his level has dropped off considerably this year. After a sound defeat at the hands of Sinner in the semis of the 2024 Australian Open, Djokovic went just 5-3 at Indian Wells, Monte Carlo and Rome, prompting him to play a smaller tournament in Geneva in the week leading up to Roland Garros just to get some match play and confidence under his belt. A semifinal loss to Tomas Machac in Geneva is unlikely to bolster Djokovic’s confidence heading into Roland Garros. Beating Djokovic in best-of-five sets is one of the toughest feats in sports, but adding a 25th Grand Slam title to his record total will be a tall order for the Serbian legend, who just turned 37 years old Wednesday. Potential third-round opponents Lorenzo Musetti, Gael Monfils or Thiago Seyboth Wild would each present a unique challenge, and things only get tougher from there. Chalk fourth-round opponent Tommy Paul isn’t an easy out, and Djokovic could still have to face Casper Ruud (who beat Djokovic in Monte Carlo), Alexander Zverev and one of Alcaraz or Sinner after that.
Jannik Sinner [DK: (+450), FD: (+460), BetMGM: (+400), Caesars: (+400)] – Sinner is 28-2 in 2024 and captured his first career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, so why do two other players have shorter odds here than the No. 2 seed? The first reason is the surface, as Sinner has only one career clay-court title compared to 12 on hard courts. The second reason is uncertainty over his health, as Sinner hasn’t played a match since pulling out of the Madrid quarterfinals due to a hip injury three weeks ago. His early draw is pretty manageable, which should help Sinner knock off any rust, but Rome finalist Nicolas Jarry could present a challenge in the Round of 16. No. 8 seed Hubert Hurkacz is Sinner’s chalk quarterfinal opponent before we get the next potential installment in the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry, which is tied 4-4 head-to-head.
Alexander Zverev [DK: (+700), FD: (+700), BetMGM: (+600), Caesars: (+600)] – Zverev has climbed to fourth in the ATP rankings after his title in Rome last week. His path to the semis looks pretty appealing except for the first round, as he draws 14-time French Open champion Nadal, who is 112-3 all-time at Roland Garros. In a way, it’s a fitting first match for Zverev considering this might be his best chance at a Grand Slam title since he was going toe-to-toe with Nadal in the semifinals of the 2022 French Open before Zverev suffered a nasty ankle injury. There’s an argument that Zverev is playing better clay-court tennis than anyone in the world at the moment, and if he can get past Nadal (who is only 7-4 in 2024), Zverev has a decent draw thereafter, with no real tests until either Holger Rune or Karen Khachanov in the Round of 16. His chalk quarterfinal opponent is No. 5 seed Daniil Medvedev — a matchup that tilts decidedly in Zverev’s favor on clay.
The next tier of title hopefuls has more appeal than usual given the various drawbacks facing the top four guys. Stefanos Tsitsipas [DK: (+850), FD: (+900), BetMGM: (+900), Caesars: (+700)] won the clay-court Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo for the third time in April and reached the French Open final in 2021, but just missing out on a top-eight seed hurt him, as Rublev is a difficult fourth-round draw, just to get to Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. Casper Ruud [DK: (+1200), FD: (+1100), BetMGM: (+1100), Caesars: (+1000)] has reached the finals of each of the last two French Opens, but he could have to beat Djokovic, Zverev and Alcaraz/Sinner back-to-back-to-back in order to finally claim his first Grand Slam title. Considering he just notched his first career win over Djokovic in Monte Carlo, Ruud’s a decent value at these odds nonetheless. Rafael Nadal [DK: (+2500), FD: (+2300), BetMGM: (+2000), Caesars: (+2200)] can never be completely counted out considering he’s the clay-court GOAT, but what is likely his last trip to Roland Garros may not last long considering he draws Zverev in the first round. If Nadal somehow gets through that, watch out, as the 37-year-old Spaniard would suddenly have a much-needed infusion of confidence in both his form and his surgically repaired hip.
Andrey Rublev [DK: (+2500), FD: (+2600), BetMGM: (+2800), Caesars: (+2500)], Daniil Medvedev [DK: (+3000), FD: (+3200), BetMGM: (+2800), Caesars: (+2800)] and Holger Rune [DK: (+4000), FD: (+3100), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+2500)] round out the list of contenders at Roland Garros in 2024. Rublev has won a clay-court Masters 1000 title in each of the last two years, but his 0-10 Grand Slam quarterfinals record speaks for itself, and he could face Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic consecutively from the Round of 16 onward. Medvedev has a 54 percent win rate on clay compared to 75 percent on hard courts and is just 7-7 at the French Open in his career, so you can’t just look at his six combined finals at the Australian Open and US Open and assume those make him a French Open contender. Rune has fallen well behind fellow youngsters Alcaraz and Sinner on the development curve, as the 21-year-old Dane is just 19-11 in 2024, having dropped to 13th in the rankings from a career high of No. 4 last August.
Sleepers
Alejandro Tabilo [DK: (+8000), FD: (+7000), BetMGM: (+10000), Caesars: (+9000)] – Tabilo is enjoying a breakout year at age 26, and the Chilean will be brimming with confidence at Roland Garros. Not only does he boast a career high ranking of No. 25, but he’s also coming off a signature win, having beaten Djokovic in straight sets en route to the semifinals in Rome. Tabilo won a Challenger event just before that career-best Masters 1000 result, and he also reached the second ATP Tour-level final of his career earlier this year in Santiago, with all of those results coming on clay. Tabilo’s touch will have opponents chasing down drop shots all day, and he can motor around the court himself, so the No. 24 seed could be primed for big things in his first career French Open main draw appearance. Tabilo could face No. 10 seed Grigor Dimitrov in the third round and eighth-seeded Hurkacz in the Round of 16; two players who prefer faster surfaces.
Jan-Lennard Struff [DK: (+10000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+10000), Caesars: (+12500)] – Struff isn’t a realistic contender for the title, but the 34-year-old German has an opportunity to reach his first Grand Slam quarterfinal in his 38th major main draw. He just missed being seeded at No. 39 but has a nice early draw with two qualifiers in his section plus No. 19 seed Alexander Bublik, who is a self-proclaimed hater of clay courts. After that, Struff would potentially have to get through Alex de Minaur and Medvedev to reach the quarters. Those players aren’t slouches, but neither is the late-blooming Struff, whose best results have come on clay. He attained a career-high ranking of No. 21 last June by reaching the final of Madrid and quarterfinals of Monte Carlo in 2023, and Struff has made the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam twice, both at Roland Garros. Tomas Machac [DK: (+20000), FD: (+25000), BetMGM: (+40000), Caesars: (+25000)] is another sleeper to watch in Medvedev’s quarter after the 23-year-old Czech beat Djokovic in Geneva.
Lorenzo Musetti [DK: (+13000), FD: (+19000), BetMGM: (+20000), Caesars: (+15000)] – Musetti had to retire in Rome, but assuming he’s fully fit here, the talented Italian is certainly capable of doing some damage. He’s just 2-5 on clay in 2024 but has a won over 59 percent of his career matches on the surface, including two runs to the Roland Garros Round of 16 in three appearances. His losses in those two fourth-round matches came against Djokovic and Alcaraz, with Musetti actually holding a two-set lead in the encounter with Djokovic before running out of gas in 2021. The winner of Monfils vs. Seyboth Wild won’t be an easy opponent in the second round, but if the No. 30 seed gets through that one, Musetti will likely get a crack at avenging the 2021 loss against a far more vulnerable version of Djokovic.
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek [DK: (-165), FD: (-160), BetMGM: (-155), Caesars: (-160)] – Swiatek has been dominant in general, but the gap between the world No. 1 and the rest of the field is far larger on clay, which explains why she’s the comfortable favorite to win this title. Swiatek is 38-4 overall in 2024 and 14-1 on clay, bringing her clay-court record since the start of 2022 to 52-4. The No. 1 seed will be happy to see Elena Rybakina in the opposite half of the draw, as Rybakina has handed Swiatek two of those four clay-court losses and leads their overall head-to-head 4-2. Instead, Swiatek’s chalk semifinal opponent is Coco Gauff, who is a better clay-court player than Rybakina but has been dominated 10-1 head-to-head by Swiatek. A potential second-round clash with Naomi Osaka would draw plenty of attention, but even prime Osaka was nowhere near Swiatek’s level on clay, as Osaka has a pedestrian 7-5 career record at the French Open. If Swiatek plays even her B-game, there’s likely nobody that can deny her a fourth French Open title in five years.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka [DK: (+550), FD: (+600), BetMGM: (+500), Caesars: (+500)] – Sabalenka reached the final of both clay-court WTA 1000 events leading up to Roland Garros, so the world No. 2 has looked like the clear second-best player on clay in 2024. She lost both of those finals to Swiatek, one in a thrilling third-set tiebreak, the other in easy straight-set fashion. There are some tricky unseeded floaters in Sabalenka’s section, including Paula Badosa, Sloane Stephens and Yulia Putintseva, but Sabalenka’s early-career vulnerability in early rounds of majors hasn’t resurfaced for a while, as the Belarusian has made at least the semifinals in each of the last six Grand Slam tournaments. Her chalk quarterfinal opponent is No. 6 seed Maria Sakkari, followed by No. 4 seed Rybakina or No. 7 seed Qinwen Zheng in the semis.
Coco Gauff [DK: (+900), FD: (+850), BetMGM: (+950), Caesars: (+800)] – Prior to her maiden Grand Slam title at the 2023 US Open, Gauff generally played her best tennis on clay, sandwiching a runner-up finish at the 2022 French Open between quarterfinal berths in 2021 and 2023. The No. 3 seed has a straightforward path to the Round of 16, where she could face Beatriz Haddad Maia, Liudmila Samsonova or Amanda Anisimova, followed by a quarterfinal matchup with Ons Jabeur or Jelena Ostapenko. Gauff will be favored through the quarterfinals regardless of opponent, but a potential semifinal matchup with Swiatek is a different story. Swiatek just beat Gauff in the Rome semifinals, improving to 10-1 in their head-to-head, with all 10 of Swiatek’s wins coming in straight sets. In order to win the title, Gauff may need someone else to knock off Swiatek first. Perhaps Danielle Collins or Marketa Vondrousova could be up to that task in the quarterfinals.
Elena Rybakina [DK: (+1000), FD: (+900), BetMGM: (+1000), Caesars: (+800)] – Rybakina has three titles in 2024, including one on clay in Stuttgart, where she beat Swiatek. The 2022 Wimbledon champion is 30-5 overall in 2024, showcasing a strong all-surface game, but Rybakina has been past the third round of the French Open only once — a quarterfinal showing back in 2021. She missed Rome due to an illness two weeks ago but should be ready to go at Roland Garros. Seeded No. 4, Rybakina could face Elina Svitolina in the Round of 16, then one of Zheng, Jasmine Paolini or childhood friend Anna Kalinskaya in the quarterfinals before possible matchups with Sabalenka and Swiatek.
Danielle Collins [DK: (+2000), FD: (+1700), BetMGM: (+1800), Caesars: (+1800)] – Collins has been the best player on the WTA Tour after Swiatek and Sabalenka since Indian Wells. The 30-year-old American has just three losses over that span — two to Sabalenka and one to Swiatek. She won her first WTA 1000 title in Miami, added a clay-court title in Charleston and is on her way to adding another one in Strasbourg in the lead-up to Roland Garros. Perhaps Collins is playing well enough to reconsider retiring at the end of the season, but if this is her last Roland Garros appearance, the draw-makers did her no favors. Collins faces a daunting draw as the No. 11 seed, with No. 18 seed Marta Kostyuk in the third round and fifth-seeded Vondrousova in the fourth just to get to Swiatek in the quarterfinals. Despite the tough path, Collins is playing well enough to slide into the second tier of contenders.
Jelena Ostapenko [DK: (+4000), FD: (+4700), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+3500)], Maria Sakkari [DK: (+5000), FD: (+5000), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+3500)], Mirra Andreeva [DK: (+6000), FD: (+6500), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+3500)], Qinwen Zheng [DK: (+5000), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+4000)] and Ons Jabeur [DK: (+6500), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+5000)] make up the next tier down. Of these options, Sakkari stands out as the most intriguing. The 2021 French Open semifinalist hasn’t made a deep Grand Slam run in two years, but she has looked reinvigorated since pairing with Pegula’s former coach David Witt, reaching the Indian Wells final soon after the coaching change. Sakkari could face talented teenagers Linda Noskova and Andreeva in the third and fourth rounds before taking on Sabalenka in the quarterfinals.
Ostapenko won the French Open just days after her 20th birthday in 2017. She hasn’t ascended to those heights since, with an ugly 4-6 subsequent Roland Garros record, but Ostapenko has settled in as a top-20 staple and reached two Grand Slam quarterfinals last year. Her massive power off the ground allows Ostapenko to beat anybody when she’s on, but the No. 9 seed could have to get through Gauff in the quarterfinals and Swiatek in the semis just to reach her second major final. Andreeva is a perpetual sleeper in majors, as the 17-year-old has displayed massive upside with a 9-4 career Grand Slam record so far, including a 6-0, 6-2 win over Jabeur at the Australian Open. The Russian’s cerebral game fits well on clay, but Andreeva may need another year or two of strength and endurance gains before she’s truly ready to contend for Grand Slam titles.
Zheng took advantage of a favorable draw to reach the final of the Australian Open, but the 21-year-old has generally played more like a borderline top-10 player than a true Grand Slam title contender. Jabeur has struggled to a 6-9 record in 2024. The Tunisian’s creative game style works better on clay than hard courts, but the grass courts of Wimbledon are where Jabeur can really do damage. Jabeur’s 2023 quarterfinal at the French Open was the best result of her career, but she’ll likely be a slight underdog in the Round of 16 against Ostapenko if chalk holds up to that point.
Sleepers
Marketa Vondrousova [DK: (+8000), FD: (+9500), BetMGM: (+8000), Caesars: (+8000)] – Vondrousova is worth a flier at these odds. She reached the French Open final in 2019 and proved she can hold her nerve on the biggest stage by winning Wimbledon in 2023. Her crafty game works well on clay, so it’s surprising to see the fifth-seeded Czech outside the list of top title contenders. She has been off so far in 2024 while battling injuries, but this is a nice buy-low opportunity on Vondrousova, who has an easy early draw before a likely fourth-round test against either Collins or Kostyuk.
Amanda Anisimova [DK: (+15000), FD: (+21000), BetMGM: (+30000), Caesars: (+25000)] – Anisimova has struggled recently, as she comes in 1-4 in her last five matches, but perhaps returning to the venue where she broke out with a semifinal run in 2019 will reinvigorate the talented American, who is still only 22 years old. Anisimova has gone through turmoil on and off the tennis court after a brilliant start to her career as a teenager, but she has a history of stepping it up when the lights are brightest, including a fourth-round run at this year’s Australian Open after taking a break from tennis in 2023. She can push opponents around with easy power from the baseline, and Anisimova’s potential second-round opponent is No. 17 seed Liudmila Samsonova, whom Anisimova beat in straight sets at the Australian Open.
Yulia Putintseva [DK: (+15000), FD: (+25000), BetMGM: (+30000), Caesars: (+30000)] – Putintseva’s frequent and proficient use of the drop shot has been highly effective during the clay-court swing, as she went 6-2 in Madrid and Rome, beating Zheng and Daria Kasatkina while losing to Rybakina and Swiatek. The 29-year-old began her upswing on the hard courts in March by making the Round of 16 in Indian Wells and quarterfinals in Miami, and Putintseva has been rolling since. Putintseva just missed being seeded and has a tough first-round draw against 2018 French Open finalist Sloane Stephens, but Putintseva just beat Stephens 6-3, 6-2 in Rome. She would be a substantial third-round underdog against Sabalenka but could make life difficult for the No. 2 seed.
I’m going out on a limb here and picking Alexander Zverev to win the men’s singles title. It’s a coin flip between him and Alcaraz, but Zverev makes for the better bet at substantially longer odds. Zverev’s coming off a Masters 1000 title in Rome, and while he hasn’t broken through for a Grand Slam title yet, the 27-year-old German has done just about everything else; Zverev has won six Masters 1000 titles, two titles at the ATP Finals and a gold medal in singles at the Olympics in 2021. If Zverev and Alcaraz meet in the final, Zverev would have to fancy his chances given the German’s 5-4 head-to-head edge, including a win in the quarterfinals of this year’s Australian Open.
Iga Swiatek is the boring pick but it’s also hard to go with anybody else considering she’s 52-4 on clay since the start of 2022 and has won three of the previous four French Opens. My pick to come out of the bottom half of the draw and face Swiatek in the women’s singles final is Sakkari.
