There seems to be more questions than answers leading up to the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Will City of Troy handle the dirt? Can Fierceness string together three good efforts in a row? Is Forever Young ready after just one start since May? Will Next be as effective cutting back in distance?

These are among the many questions that handicappers must answer as they look to solve this complex Classic puzzle. With so many unknowns, this is not the year to settle for a short price. I go price hunting below as I rank the entire 2024 Classic field from first to last.

1. Arthur’s Ride, no. 12, 15-1. The Grade 1 Whitney Stakes winner looked prime to be one of the Classic favorites after posting consecutive Beyer Speed Figures of 111 and 110 this summer. After one poor effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), he is suddenly an outsider. I believe he regressed off of these two huge efforts when asked to return in four weeks. He has now been given two months to regroup, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott would not enter him in this race if he had not returned to good form. He will be on the lead over a track that favors speed, and the son of Tapit will have less company than one would think. City of Troy and Next are not fast enough early to duel with this colt, and Fierceness is likely to be rated again to help him get the distance. The forgotten horse could be long gone.

2. City of Troy, no. 3, 5-2. There is no question that the European invader is the most talented horse in a race that lacks a standout. He has won four Group 1 races comfortably, and Aidan O’Brien has called him the best horse he has ever had, which is awfully high praise considering how many stars he has trained. Though he has exclusively turf breeding on his dam side, the son of Justify has just enough overall dirt breeding and tactical speed to make one think he will be able to handle the dirt. I could envision scenarios in which he finishes first or last, but I think he will put forth a performance similar to Giant’s Causeway’s narrow Classic defeat.

3. Tapit Trice, no. 10, 30-1. Like Arthur’s Ride, this is another son of Tapit flying under the radar. He was a bit disappointing as a 3-year-old but has improved with the addition of blinkers and further maturity as a 4-year-old. He easily handled Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Highland Falls at Monmouth, and his Woodward Stakes (G2) win last out was really impressive. Skippylongstocking, a good horse who is 4-1 in the Dirt Mile, opened a clear lead in the stretch and looked home free after sitting off slow fractions. This colt still managed to run him down. He has never been better, and Irad Ortiz Jr. and Todd Pletcher at 30-1 are tough to ignore.

4. Forever Young, no. 1, 6-1. The shipper from Japan might have been best in the Kentucky Derby, and he looked good in his one and only prep for this race. I wish he had a little more seasoning prior to this race, but he is a head away from being undefeated and might have the raw talent to overcome the obstacles. 

5. Sierra Leone, no. 11, 12-1. He looked like the horse to beat in just about every race he ran in since his impressive Blue Grass Stakes (G1) score in April, but he has become a bit of a bridesmaid. His deep closing style often leaves him with too much to do, and his first race against older foes figures to be no different. He is a great horse to include in exotic wagering, but it would be surprising to see him break through in this spot.

6. Newgate, no. 13, 20-1. The son of Into Mischief had a perfect prep in the California Crown (G1), showing no wear and tear from his trip to Dubai. Unlike many of his competitors, he is proven over this track and distance. He looks primed to run his best race, but I am not sure that his best is good enough to beat the top horses in this division. 

7. Fierceness, no. 9, 3-1. The king of feast of famine certainly could win this race under the right circumstances. I was impressed with the maturity he showed to rate in the Travers Stakes (G1), but this is a tougher test. He did win at this distance last time, but this is pushing his limitations and the price is too low to trust him to repeat that effort.

8. Highland Falls, no. 2, 20-1. The son of Curlin is in the best form of his career and was great in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at this distance last time. He might be peaking at the right time, but he would need to take another large step forward to have a major say in here.

9. Ushba Tesoro, no. 7, 12-1. The deep-closing Japan import could mange only a fifth-place finish in last year’s Classic, and he is not quite in as good of form as he was last year when he won six in a row leading up to the race. His style puts him up against it over this track. 

10. Next, no. 14, 8-1. The marathoner has been the most dominant horse in the world this year. He has won his last six races by almost 90 combined lengths. He is such a neat horse, but this is a tough task from both a competition and a pace perspective. He has faced weak opposition in his wins and has been able to sit nice trips just off of the slow early paces of long races. He will be in an uncomfortable position from a wide post in this race. The gelding either will chase a much faster pace than he is used to or will find himself much further back than usual, which likely would take away his typical finishing kick. 

11. Pyrenees, no. 8, 30-1. This colt has shown nice gradual improvement this year but has never faced this type of competition. He was no match for Highland Falls last out and has bigger threats on Saturday. 

12. Señor Buscador, no. 5, 30-1. The old pro has now made over $12 million in his career and was in peak form when capturing the Saudi Cup (G1) and running third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) earlier this year. Unfortunately those races and the travel seem to have taken everything out of him as with many before him. His two return races in California were very flat, and he appears to be headed in the wrong direction.

13. Derma Sotogake, no. 6, 20-1. He was second in this race last year after showing decent form throughout the year. This year has not gone according to plan as he has been out of the money in all three races. Like Señor Buscador, the travel to Dubai and Saudi Arabia seems to have taken the starch out of him.

14. Mixto, no. 4, 30-1. He was a shocking winner of the Pacific Classic  (G1) over this track and distance after losing at Pleasanton the race before. It is hard to see him repeating that effort, and even if he somehow did, he is many lengths behind the best in this division.