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Sha Tin

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Eight races will be run and won at Cranbourne this Friday night. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

1 Killarney (Bet Now: $1.95) should be better for the run under the belt after resuming over the mile at Moe when near the speed and presented to win but just found one better. He did show promise in WA and has good upside, so for mine, he commands respect.

Danger

7 Rose Diamond (Bet Now: $2.50) has less convictions than most and is suited here. She comes through a maiden at Caulfield Heath won by Chosen Legend when on speed and tried hard but just lacked the polish to go with them late. Form out of that maiden has been good, she has good upside and there isn’t much depth here.

Long Shot

3 Newcombe (Bet Now: $7.50) has the 1600m run under the belt now, which should hold him in good stead here. He ran over this trip at Caulfield Heath last time when off the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through. He can run top four and a win wouldn’t totally shock.

Back Me

8 Motcombs (Bet Now: $2.80) on top in a pretty thin race after scratchings. Ciaron Maher trained filly that resumes, having not raced since her debut back in August at Canterbury when well specked at odds but failed to fire a shot, running last. Has trialled up well for the return and finds a race with little depth. Think she can get away with this.

Danger

7 Mohegan Goddess (Bet Now: $3.70) is a well bred filly on debut for Team Hayes. She has had a couple of preps without a run, this being the second prep. She has had a jumpout and a trial to get ready for the debut this time in, and each hitout has seen her look pretty good. Watch the market.

Long Shot

9 Ortigian Girl (Bet Now: $21.00) is a daughter of I Am Invincible for Team Freedman that is on debut. The breeding suggests she may get further over slightly further but her jumpout work has been strong and maps to do no work. Knockout hope.

Back Me

6 Egerton (Bet Now: $1.40) should be odds on here. I am really keen on her prospects. She has been runner up in both career outings and the winner of each have come out and won again, the last start being Yes Lulu, winner last Saturday at Caulfield. If she can overcome the draw, I think she’ll be too good.

Danger

11 Pick N Mix (Bet Now: $4.20) is a daughter of Turn Me Loose on debut for Team McEvoy. She went very sharp in a Ballarat trial win last week, winning by a space and running decent enough time, relative to the morning. If the favourite is off his game, this girl is here to pick up the pieces.

Long Shot

4 Wonder Rub (Bet Now: $41.00) is a son of Rubick for Team Hayes that is first up. He debuted at Pakenham Synthetic on July 8 when back in the run and made up some headway without threatening. He has jumped out well for the return and despite a tricky gate, he can run top four.

Back Me

1 Codonas (Bet Now: $7.00) has a tricky draw to overcome but is an each way bet here for mine. He debuted over 1200m at Sale where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he made up solid ground and was an eye catcher. If he’s within range, he has the finale to be quite dangerous late.

Danger

6 Vaderlee (Bet Now: $4.50) is a key threat. He ran on Wodonga Cup Day where he had a suck run on the fence before angling clear and knuckled down with purpose late but found one better. Positive ride, he takes beating.

Long Shot

11 Luvya Mumma (Bet Now: $14.00) is a daughter of Toronado that is on debut for Liam Howley. This girl hasn’t been too bad in jumpout work and while she’ll be better suited over further, she should be strong late. Watch the market.

Back Me

I am a bit surprised that 6 Real Intrigue (Bet Now: $12.00) is not favourite given how strong he was at Moe last time. Not sure he beat a great deal but he gave them a start and a beating and was impressive late in the piece. This isn’t a deep 64 contest and the way he won last time, 2580m should be fine.

Danger

1 Just Berrilliant (Bet Now: $2.60) is the key threat. He is a month between runs since a win over 2600m at Ballarat. He got a suck run in transit before being presented clear air and finished best to get the job done. Like a recent tick over trial from him and the trip is no issue.

Long Shot

4 Heir To The Throne (Bet Now: $3.60) is on the quick back up after resuming over 2000m on Tuesday at Moe. He got back in the run and although never really a winning threat, he kept finding the line. The rise in trip suits and the depth here isn’t overly deep.

Back Me

I have always been a fan of 5 Speak (Bet Now: $6.50) and I think she is enjoying life under the care of Ciaron Maher. She resumed over 1500m at Caulfield Heath where she got off speed and while she was never a winning threat, she found the line with purpose. Might want 2000m+ but off the return, she takes beating here.

Danger

2 The Jester’s Son (Bet Now: $4.50) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He attempted to lead throughout at Caulfield Heath last start and gave a decent sight but just couldn’t quite see it through behind Smokin Princess. Back to this level with front end control, he takes running down.

Long Shot

7 Madison Kate (Bet Now: $13.00) comes to Victoria with solid form from SA behind her. Latest run came at Gawler over 1500m when near the speed and tried hard but just lacked the finale. Maps to do no work and her best is good enough to be dangerous at odds.

Back Me

10 Dubenenko (Bet Now: $2.60) seems the most obvious. She ran over this trip at Caulfield Heath last start where she got a fair way out of her ground but I really liked the way she finished her race off in defeat behind Haraldus. That form reads very well and with Blinkers first time, this seems a kitchen sink job.

Danger

5 Heuristic (Bet Now: $7.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with James Cummings, he now finds himself with Peter Snowden. He did seem suited at the short course, so first up at 1200m signals some form of intent and his jumpout work has been more than encouraging.

Long Shot

11 Rockabottle (Bet Now: $26.00) has to be given another look. He resumed at Caulfield Heath and was very plain when last behind Intrepid Eagle but he was quite keen in the run and the apprentice couldn’t get him to relax, so the senior rider on now, fitter, he’s dangerous.

Back Me

2 Lovin’ Laughs (Bet Now: $5.00) is worth an each way ticket in the get out. She was 1469m to 1200m when racing at The Valley last time when tracking the speed and tried hard but just lacked change up speed behind Zou Sensation. Back up in r trip and back a fair way in depth, happy to be in her corner.

Danger

5 Nursery Chime (Bet Now: $4.00) is a handy mare for the Kennewell/Yeomans that resumes. She is first up, having not raced since March 24 over the mile at Bairnsdale when closing off well behind Starspangled Baby. Has jumped out well for the return and strikes a winnable race.

Long Shot

3 Run Naan (Bet Now: $17.00) comes here with fresh legs for Vincent Hall, having not raced since Nov 3 at Mornington when racing over the mile and closed well enough in defeat behind Claim The Crown. Back to 1400m, back in grade/depth, she’s an improver at odds.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 6 Egerton

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 10 Dubenenko

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 2 Lovin Laughs

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 7

Leg Three: 10

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

*Existing customers only. 2nd Racing bet. Excl SA & WA. T’s & C’s apply. Gamble responsibly.