The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
The quarterfinals of the NBA Cup takes place on Tuesday night, starting off with a matchup between the Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is expected to be shorthanded as Paolo Banchero (oblique) will miss his 22nd consecutive game, and Franz Wagner (oblique) sustained an injury over the weekend and is now expected to be out for at least four weeks.
Orlando has managed to keep winning without Banchero in the lineup, but I’m not sure how it will replace Wagner’s scoring, as well. Wagner has averaged 24.4 points per game (PPG) while also leading the team in assists per game (APG) at 5.7 and steals per game at 1.7. The Magic took down the Phoenix Suns 115-110 in their first game minus Wagner on Monday. However, Phoenix was without Kevin Durant in that game.
Milwaukee is expected to be healthy for tonight’s quarters, for Giannis Antetokounmpo (patella) and Khris Middleton (ankle) are probable. While Orlando is 8-2 and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last 10, it could be finally time to fade this squad. Our best angle for that is in the under for the Magic’s scoring total.
Several offensive stats for the season are already uninspiring, including Orlando holding the 10th-worst offensive rating and 9th-lowest effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Despite inefficiencies, the Magic still have a solid shot distribution, sporting the fifth-highest mark at the rim and ninth-highest mark from three, per Dunks & Threes. The Bucks have done an excellent job of defending the paint, giving up the 8th-lowest shot distribution around the rim and the 10th-fewest points in the paint per contest.
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With that said, shooting the three is probably Orlando’s best shot for scoring as Milwaukee is in the bottom half of three-point shot distribution allowed. The Magic are shooting 31.1% from three-point land (the lowest), and they are shooting an alarming 27.5% from deep over the past five games.
Attacking the rim will already be a challenge against Milwaukee, and Wagner is now out of the lineup as he takes 55.6% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket. Considering Orlando also loves to slow the pace down with the fourth-fewest field goal attempts per game and the fewest field goal attempts allowed per contest, under the Magic’s scoring total is shaping up to be one of the best bets for tonight.
The nightcap of Tuesday’s doubleheader of the NBA Cup quarterfinals features two contenders for this tournament. According to FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA Cup odds, the Oklahoma City Thunder carry the shortest odds to win the NBA Cup (+280) while the Dallas Mavericks feature the fifth-shortest line (+750).
The two teams met once this season, which the Mavs won 121-119 as seven-point underdogs. Look for another high-scoring affair tonight.
Starting with Dallas’ offense, this unit logs the ninth-fewest three-point shots per game compared to the fifth-most points in the paint per contest. OKC gives up the fewest points in the paint per game, but it will be without its top rim protector Chet Holmgren (hip) — who boasts a 99.2 defensive rating. The Mavericks found success in the painted area in the most recent head-to-head clash, totaling 52 points in the paint (the Thunder give up an average of 41.7 per game).
Additionally, Dallas has been scorching hot from three-point land over the previous seven games, draining 45.0% of its looks from beyond the arc. The Thunder give up the 14th-most three-point shots per contest and the 3rd-highest shot distribution from three.
The total is pretty high at 230.5 points; will Oklahoma City’s offense also contribute enough for the over?
Similar to the Mavs, the Thunder found success around the rim in the last matchup. This isn’t out of character, either, for OKC averages the ninth-most points in the paint per contest. Dallas isn’t exactly up to snuff guarding the rim, surrendering the 9th-most points in the paint per contest while giving up the 15th-highest shot distribution around the rim. For comparison, the Mavericks allow the fifth-lowest shot distribution from three and the seventh-fewest attempts from deep per game.
Tuesday’s matchup should feature a lot of easy buckets around the rim, and with each team among the top 11 in shots per game, there should be no shortage of points. Each squad is also among the top 10 quickest paces in the Association.
numberFire’s game projections have this total hitting about 234 points, giving the over a 58.6% likelihood. The current -110 odds for the over carries only a 52.4% implied probability.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
