Caulfield will play host to a ten event meeting this Saturday for Caulfield Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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1 Sugar Coat (Bet Now: $3.30) commands respect I say for Moody/Coleman. He put together a couple of strong wins to start the prep before going to Sandown where the market gravitated towards him and was there to win but found one better in a good horse, Ndola. He has that 1400m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.
Danger
7 Lake Forest (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Team Freedman trained colt that I think has an engine under the hood. He resumed in a Ballarat maiden when on speed throughout and looked to be trucking before being clicked up and away he went for a dominant win. Good test here against likely types but confident he can measure up.
Long Shot
2 Getafix (Bet Now: $4.20) has talent but I reckon he does have a few loose screws upstairs. He looked all over a winner at Rosehill last time when he dashed to the front but I reckon he half turned it up and was nabbed late by Edited By, interesting with the rider being a half kilo over for a 0.4L defeat. He can win, clearly, but I do think he needs things to fall into place.
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6 Reserve Bank (Bet Now: $3.70) is a jet. I am convinced of that. I think he should have won the Danehill two weeks ago but I reckon he didn’t see First Settler until it was too late but he picked up, surged and just missed out on the win. He has that strong run under the belt and back to a bending track, this looks a confidence boost for me en route to the Coolmore.
Danger
2 Bodyguard (Bet Now: $18.00) is very capable with his best. He resumed in the Danehill where he got back in the run and was never a factor behind First Settler. Back to a bending track, settles much closer in the run and does get Joao Moreira to steer so he has a bit in his corner.
Long Shot
10 Lovelycut (Bet Now: $23.00) creates interest. Not sure she is good enough to win but I think Reece Goodwin has a good filly on his hands. Ended last prep with a couple of wins on the bounce, the latest a dominant effort at Sandown. Likely spots them a start but should be strong late.
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I am going to take a chance with 7 China Sea (Bet Now: $14.00) for John Sargent. He comes through the Dulcify at Randwick where he got off the speed but when it came to getting clear air, it was ugly viewing and a total forgive. For mine, the Sydney form is far deeper than what has been seen in Melbourne so for mine, he’s the each way bet.
Danger
It’s hard to ignore 1 Keeneland (Bet Now: $2.80) and the way he won the Super Impose two weeks ago. Credit to him, he was there to be beaten, but he got better as the race went on and was quite strong to the line in winning. Off that, 2000m is no issue and he only has to hold his form to be one of the hardest to beat once again.
Long Shot
2 Red Aces (Bet Now: $4.00) should appreciate a rise to 2000m. He ran second to Keeneland in the Super Impose in the Flemington, trying his guts out to reel in the eventual winner but had to settle for a second. I do think the rise in trip is ideal and if he can settle closer, he takes beating I say.
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I have had faith in 2 Jenni’s Meadow (Bet Now: $8.50) as an Oaks horse since the start of the prep but it’s being tested and for me, this is D-Day for her with the Oaks in mind. On paper, her two runs back have been plain, but she has been one paced each time and IMO has been a filly wanting more ground, which she gets here, and hard fit, she gets her chance to showcase her best.
Danger
1 Too Darn Discreet (Bet Now: $3.60) is a filly heading in the right direction for Dan O’Sullivan and commands respect. This girl has won two on the bounce, the latest win being the Edward Manifold where she got better as the race went on and was strong to the line in winning. 2000m should be fine and she has the runs on the board.
Long Shot
4 Hurry Curry (Bet Now: $7.00) has the Oaks spot secured after the Trial win at Flemington win, and she was quite dominant in the run to the line. She is a filly heading in the right direction and the stable knows what it takes when it comes to a good filly with staying promise.
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She’s not the best weighted horse going around here, but there is just intent deluxe here with 8 Isthmus (Bet Now: $3.90) being out of former star mare Shoals. blacktype on the cards, and she looks to have returned in beast mode. Gave the course record a nudge first up and then won like a barrier trial at Flemington. No issue with 1100m, she’s in form, versatility re racing pattern…really keen to see her.
Danger
I am not sure this is the race for 10 Niance (Bet Now: $4.40) but gee she is a good mare for Grahame Begg that resumes. Her form is via just fair metro races, but the times she has produced her best, she has run like a jet. Spelled and her trial/jumpout work at Cranbourne has been sparkling. Very keen to see how she goes.
Long Shot
1 Gumdrops (Bet Now: $13.00) can bounce back for Price/Kent. This mare resumed over 1200m at The Valley where things didn’t go to place for her when it mattered and I thought she should have finished closer behind a good horse, Baraqiel. Tricky draw, but back to own sex, back in trip, she appeals.
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6 Zeitung (Bet Now: $6.50) is humming for James Cummings and if she’s within range 400m out, I think she’ll be too good. She ran in the Scarborough at The Valley where she just got dragged back from the wide gate and while she was never a winning threat, I loved the way she closed her race off. Just needs a half positive steer and I think she’ll be winning.
Danger
5 Matisse (Bet Now: $8.00) is one of the leading chances. Team Freedman trained filly that resumed in the Scarborough. She got back off the speed and although she took a little while to wind into her work she was good late. Like her on the bigger track and has good upside to come.
Long Shot
3 Geegees Mistruth (Bet Now: $4.60) has done little wrong this time in since arriving from Tassie. Narrow second in the Quezette before going to the Scarborough when getting into a sweet spot just off the speed and tried hard but she had no answers late for Bellatrix Star. Hard to knock the way she’s racing.
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7 Way To The Stars (Bet Now: $11.00) is a short course specialist for Matty Smith that will take beating from on speed here. He contested a couple of Everest lead ups and yes, he was clearly outclassed, but I thought he ran a super race in defeat each time. Given a mini break and the tick over trial was quite good. Lands on speed and will take catching.
Danger
8 Rey Magnerio (Bet Now: $4.00) commands respect for Griffiths/De Kock. He ran behind Jimmysstar several weeks ago over 1100m here when off the speed and chased with purpose, but just missed out on the win. Good upside, genuine, hard to beat.
Long Shot
4 Ashford Street (Bet Now: $16.00) is a veteran for Tom Dabernig that will try his guts out, as was seen a few weeks back here when leading and giving an almighty sight but was nabbed right on the line. Not sure he wins, but I think is a must for exotics.
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Potentially, it could be good luck beating 14 Plenty Of Ammo (Bet Now: $6.00). I thought her return at Flemington against the boys was outstanding and she will take good improvement. If they want a Group win, this looks THE perfect race for her. She’ll land on speed, she likes Caulfield, she’s well weighted, enormous upside…why is she not closer to favourite.
Danger
2 Revolutionary Miss (Bet Now: $7.00) seems the straight bat play. Ciaron Maher trained mare that won the Rose Of Kingston two weeks ago at Flemington, getting the beaut run in transit just off the speed before she angled clear and got better as the race went on, proving strong to the line in winning. Hard to beat once again despite the Empire Rose being the GF.
Long Shot
1 Quintessa (Bet Now: $11.00) can bounce back hard. She was a super winner of the Cockram fresh at Caulfield before going to the Let’s Elope where she struggled on the bog behind Grinzinger Belle. Back on a firmer deck and third up now so she should be hard fit and her best is more than good enough to take this out.
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13 Zardozi (Bet Now: $8.00) is back on track. Jury was a bit out on her after the Chelmsford and Kingston Town but she went to The Metropolitan ran out of her skin, beaten by the bob of the head via Land Legend in a great battle up the straight. Her best efforts have come when racing the Melbourne way, she’s so well in at the weights and she will love a drop of rain.
Danger
A potential wet track is my concern with 4 Warp Speed (Bet Now: $26.00) but I just feel he could be an absolute jet. Japanese stayer that brings with him some elite staying from, mainly over further than this, so perhaps the first Tuesday in November may well be the target, but I think if you pen a Japanese horse when they come down under, you’ll get burnt, and we do know he’ll be very strong at the end of 2400m. He’s the each way play for me.
Long Shot
3 Circle Of Fire (Bet Now: $35.00) is a horse I am not sacking as a winning threat. I think he’s had two barrier trials to start the prep. Struggled on the bog in the Makybe Diva before being wide throughout in the Turnbull. Back to a handicap, up to an ideal trip, well in at the weights and he’ll be strong late. I think he’ll run a beauty.
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12 Laws Of Indices (Bet Now: $34.00) is a good horse for Phillip Stokes and I think has returned in pretty good order. He ram two weeks back down the straight at Flemington in the Gilgai where he got into a decent spot in transit and tried hard but condition just gave way late in the piece. Fitter and up in trip, he’s a big improver and off a hot speed, he’s the each way play.
Danger
1 Pinstriped (Bet Now: $3.80) is the class factor and class will carry him a long way. He has been kept on ice since the Makybe Diva where he struggled on the heavy ground and didn’t pull up 100% in defeat behind Mr Brightside. Fresh legs and back to 1400m, back miles in grade/depth, he commands respect.
Long Shot
8 Ripcord (Bet Now: $11.00) is a slight query at 1400m but he is a good horse from WA. He resumed two weeks back in the Gilgai where he got back in the run and made up solid headway late in the piece behind Right To Party. Maps to settle off the speed and if the 1400m is okay, he can win.
BEST BET: Race Two Number 6 Reserve Bank
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 14 Plenty Of Ammo
LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 12 Laws Of Indices
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 8
Leg Two: 14
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 8, 13
Leg Four: 1, 8, 11, 12
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
*Existing customers only. 2nd Racing bet. Excl SA & WA. T’s & C’s apply. Gamble responsibly.
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