Nine races have been set down for Ascot this Saturday for RS Crawford Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
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I think you have to believe what you saw from the debut win of 6 The Merryman (Bet Now: $20.00) at Northam. The way he gave them a start and a beating, and unleashed a brilliant finishing burst, was that of a horse who could progress to bigger and better things. Good test here but keen to see how he goes.
Danger
1 True Apostle (Bet Now: $5.00) is up and running and comes to Ascot in winning form after a win at Belmont three weeks ago where he had run of the race stuff, a peach ride and he kept finding late under pressure to fend them off and win. Bit of depth to this line up but hard to knock the way he’s racing.
Long Shot
5 Hez Got The Safe (Bet Now: $5.50) is racing really well at the moment and should appreciate a rise to 1400m. He has had two runs on the bounce at 1200m at Bunbury, winning the maiden two back before a strong effort from off the speed last time when second to Storyville. Up in trip I like and commands respect.
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2 Captain Pluto (Bet Now: $2.80), I think, has a bit on these. He ran over this trip three weeks ago at Belmont where he got back in the run and made up good headway with great late splits in defeat when third to Classic Rogue. He’s flying this horse and I think with a half positive steer, I think good luck beating him.
Danger
4 In Good Order (Bet Now: $2.40) is flying for Dan Morton. He put together a couple of wins on the bounce, the latest being four weeks ago over the mile at Belmont when getting the suck run in transit and got clear air at the right time, finishing best, beating Simply, who has won twice since. Hard to knock the way he’s racing.
Long Shot
6 Odinaka (Bet Now: $8.50) needs tempo so if that can eventuate here, he’s dangerous, like he was when a first up winner. He then went to the Classic Rogue race mentioned above. He got back off the moderate tempo and wasn’t as effective when fourth. Hard fit now and if the tempo is even/genuine, he can run a much improved race.
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6 Western Power (Bet Now: $4.40) has found winning form and he can go on with it. Three weeks between runs since a win over the mile at Belmont where he was ridden with a bit more intent and the end result was a strong win, holding a safe margin in the run to the line. He can win again.
Danger
3 Grand Reserve (Bet Now: $4.80) commands respect for Dan Morton. Four weeks between runs since racing over this trip at Belmont when on speed and he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there when second to Great Fortune. Two time winner at the track, he’ll press forward and give a good sight.
Long Shot
8 Zackariah Beau (Bet Now: $46.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. He resumed over 1300m at Kalgoorlie two weeks back where he was near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up headway and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Laquetta’s Gift. Not sure he wins, but for exotics, he can be entertained.
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8 Bohemian Diamond (Bet Now: $3.00) looks to have returned in beast mode and I think good luck beating her. Two starts/wins this time in and both wins have been dynamic, both over 1400m at Belmont. Latest win was on September 11 when spanking them and running decent time. I think connections have blacktype aspirations so keen to see how she goes here with the gap between runs and racing in an event with more depth.
Danger
3 Sunbronzed (Bet Now: $7.50) takes beating from on speed. He ran three weeks ago over 1200m here when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a very strong kick from the front but he couldn’t quite get there when second to Keep Attacking. 1400m is the query but if he gets front end control, he’s dangerous.
Long Shot
6 Profit Pocket (Bet Now: $12.00) is a handy mare that resumes. She was a real find when last in work during the Autumn, putting together three on the bounce before a fourth over 1800m here, an end of prep run. Resumes without a public trial but 1400m fresh signals some form of intent.
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1 Tycoon Harry (Bet Now: $16.00) can resume a winner for me here. Jim Taylor trained gelding that is first up after a two run prep where last in work, and he was a bit on the plain side I thought. That said, I am not sure he was 100% happy on the wet tracks. He finds a firmer deck here for the return, he’ll press forward and take running down.
Danger
3 Malkar PIndari (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Simon Miller trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since May 18 at Belmont when back last in the run and failed to make up any real headway behind Fast Flicker. She is a mare who does go very well on the fresh side and her trial was good. Watch the market.
Long Shot
4 Crippalenko (Bet Now: $12.00) is a handy enough sprinter that appears to have returned in really good order. He gave them a start and a beating to win first up at Kalgoorlie, aided by a 12/10 steer by Carbery, finishing best to win well. I do like him back to 1000m given the rise in grade/depth and once again maps perfect.
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11 Regal Statue (Bet Now: $4.80) can resume a winner here. Donna Riordan trained mare that is first up, having not raced since March 23 over this track/distance when back off the speed and worked home with purpose in a good effort behind Think Of God. She is a mare who can sprint well on the fresh side and her trial work to get ready has been strong.
Danger
3 Bondi Plunge (Bet Now: $6.00) has done little wrong this time in for Dan Morton and commands respect. This girl put together a couple of sharp wins to start the prep before being beaten at Belmont three weeks ago where she was held up at times but she had her chance when third to Keep Attacking. Good record at Ascot, she takes beating I say.
Long Shot
2 Speak To Me (Bet Now: $20.00) commands respect off a first up win, which came at the midweeks at Bunbury when getting a suck run in transit before angling wider and letting down nicely to score. Good test here, but think he can measure up in what looks a winnable race.
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10 Bravo Centurion (Bet Now: $2.80) faces his toughest test to date but the old rule of 1000m horse in a 1000m race. Luke Fernie trains this gelding, who hasn’t been seen since winning at Belmont on Sep 7, and the win was remarkable given he pulled up lame. Kept on ice with the Carnival in mind and yes, a good test here, but I am confident he can measure up.
Danger
7 Live To Tell (Bet Now: $7.50) is on the seven day back up for Simon Miller after resuming last Saturday here. She got a fair way out of her ground and while she was never threatening, her finale was more than encouraging. If she’s within range, she has the finale to win.
Long Shot
9 Capital Flight (Bet Now:
$SP.00) comes through the same race that Live To Tell contested from last Saturday. He led at a solid clip and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through behind Almighty Class. Not sure I could back him to win but is one that could pinch a first four spot.
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5 Magnificent Andy (Bet Now: $9.50) returns to where he races best, he’s hard fit…I think he’s the best each way gamble on the card. He ran three weeks ago at Belmont where the market said no and while it was proven right, he did make up headway and wasn’t too bad in defeat. He loves Ascot, he will settle much closer, firmer footing…he only runs well.
Danger
1 Bustler (Bet Now: $18.00) has class and that will carry him a long way. He had a two run Melbourne Cup and didn’t quite measure up but rewind last year to around this time, he was one of the top gallopers in WA. Trialled up well, he will be strong late. Watch the market.
Long Shot
12 Aztec Ruler (Bet Now: $8.00) is an improver at odds. He resumed in the same race Magnificent Andy contested from three weeks ago where he got into a good spot just off the speed and tried hard but fitness was his issue late and he tired. Better for the run and noteworthy that Pike is booked. Dangerous with his best.
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5 Watch Me Rock (Bet Now: $21.00) seems the straight bat play. Team Williams trained gelding that ran three weeks ago at Belmont and for mine, he was unlucky not to win, getting badly held up at various stages in the straight, eventually getting clear and drove hard late to just miss. If he gets better luck in the run, I think he’s the one to beat.
Danger
3 Planet Cash (Bet Now: $18.00) should appreciate a rise to 1400m. He resumed over 1200m at Belmont three weeks ago when off the speed and while he was never threatening, he kept finding the line in a good return behind Rope Them In, who won last Saturday to frank the form. Fitter and up in trip, he only runs well.
Long Shot
2 Antique Miss (Bet Now: $6.00) is a talented staying mare for Michael Grantham that resumes, potentially with eyes towards the Perth Cup. She resumes, having not raced since July 20 at Belmont when a close up second to Flower In The Wind, who was in form at the time. Better suited over further but has a touch of quality.
BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Captain Pluto
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 5 Watch Me Rock
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 5 Magnificent Andy
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 11
Leg Two: 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 12, 13
Leg Four: 5
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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