The iconic Royal Ascot Carnival kicks off this Tuesday night Australian time, with a bumper card to start proceedings, headlined by several Group l events.
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Back Me
8 Facteur Cheval (Bet Now: $3.90) looks hard to beat for mine. There was a lot of quality about his win over 1800m in the Dubai Turf at Meydan in March, and it kind of put to bed any query of him and not liking dry ground because he was impressive the way he put them away. Good test here in a high quality race, but he’ll be strong late and confident he measures up.
Danger
5 Charyn (Bet Now: $3.80) is a key threat. He comes through the Lockinge at Newbury where he was near the speed most of the way, chasing Audience, and tried hard, but given that horse had control on speed, it was never getting beat but Charyn, credit to him, he stuck on quite well in defeat. That form looks one of the better guides for this.
Long Shot
1 Audience (Bet Now: $7.50) was somewhat of a surprise winner of the Lockinge but credit to him given he led throughout. That said, he did get complete control in front and gave nothing else a look in to win impressively. Doubt he gets it as easy this time around but with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.
Back Me
1 Al Qudra (Bet Now: $11.00) for me in an open edition of the Coventry. He was good in defeat over 1000m in his opening two career outings before going to 1200m at Lingfield where he was wide no cover throughout but was trucking in the run before being clicked up by Buick and away he went, getting better as the race went on to win and win well. Confident he can measure up against these.
Danger
9 Cowardofthecounty (Bet Now: $5.00) has to be given serious respect. Joseph O’Brien trained son of Kodi Bear that debuted over 1200m at Curragh where he got into a decent spot off the speed before being angled into clear, wound up into his work and he was quite impressive late the way he put them away to win and win well. Keen to see how he goes.
Long Shot
2 Andesite (Bet Now: $9.00) is a few weeks between runs since debuting with a win over 1200m at York, tracking the speed and credit to him, he kept chasing under pressure and was quite strong to the line in getting the job done. Good test here in a good race, but he is bred to be a good one and I think he will be strong at the end.
Back Me
I think the each way play here has to be 7 Twilight Calls (Bet Now: $11.00). He ran a beauty in this race last year and looks to be ticking along nicely towards it again. He resumed in the Palace House at Newmarket where he got back to near last in the run and was held up at times but really liked the way he finished his race off, clocking good late splits. He’ll likely spot them a start but if within range, he has the finale to win.
Danger
The best version of 8 Asfoora (Bet Now: $7.50) is certainly more than good enough to be competitive. The query is how well she is going this prep because her work in Australia was just fair before coming to the UK. I actually thought she didn’t do a bad job at Haydock. She was near the speed and tired hard but first up, condition just gave way. Gets a big jockey upgrade, fitter, firmer deck, short course specialist, her best is more than good enough.
Long Shot
9 Believing (Bet Now:
$SP.00) is a ripping mare who comes here in winning form after a dominant win over this trip at Haydock. She chased the leaders from a fair way out and keep in mind there was a stiff headwind hitting them directly in the face so she was entitled to knock up but she was actually quite impressive and dominant late in the piece. Keen to see how she goes against these.
Back Me
7 Rosallion (Bet Now: $4.40) for me in what looks a very strong edition. He was a game second to Notable Speech in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket before making amends in the Irish 2000 Guineas at Curragh when ridden with more intent and probably a touch upside down, but class came to the fore and he was much too good.
Danger
6 Notable Speech (Bet Now: $2.35) is a star colt for Charlie Appleby and comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since taking out the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket where his change up speed was quite impressive when asked and he was quite dominant late in the piece. He has the runs on the board and you don’t know how good they are til they’re beaten.
Long Shot
3 Darlinghurst (Bet Now: $14.00) is the fresh blood and the unknown. French raider who has put together a picket fence, winning 4/4 this time in, the latest being a Group lll win over 1800m at Chantilly when quite impressive late in the piece, so a truly run mile should be no drama for him…lacks the class, on paper, but he is the fresh blood and different form.
Back Me
This race, usually, just find Ryan Moore for Willie Mullins and you rarely go wrong so I’ll be using that formula and siding with 3 My Lyka (Bet Now: $5.00), who ran second in a Novice jumps race in Ireland in his first run for Mullins, running second. He looks as though he will have no issue with the trip, Ryan Moore in the saddle, upside, stable love this race…happy to be in his corner.
Danger
1 Pied Piper (Bet Now: $6.50) has the Absurde form, which clearly reads well from an Australian perspective. That run behind Absurde came in a Cheltenham Hurdle where he got back in the run and found the line quite well late in the piece without threatening. Gets the patient hands of Jamie Spencer and he should be strong late.
Long Shot
7 Titronic (Bet Now: $14.00) is several weeks between runs since racing over 3312m at Southwell on the Synthetic where he had a suck run near the speed, tracking it and was seemingly moving well, but couldn’t quite let down and finish the race off late in the piece when fourth. I think back on the turf is a big tick and while he is yet to prove himself at the trip, he should get a suck run again, do no work and get every chance to see it out.
Back Me
16 Torito (Bet Now: $4.80) is the way I am leaning. Team Gosden trained gelding that resumed over 1800m at Newmarket where he got into a decent spot near the speed and was there to win when presented but first up in around 11 months, condition just gave way late in the piece. Better for the run, fitter and up to 2000m, happy to be in his corner.
Danger
5 Botanical (Bet Now: $5.50) is one of the key chances. Roger Varian trained galloper that resumed with an arrogant win at York. He had a suck run in transit before being clicked up 400m out and he went through his gears like a nice horse to win and win well. He has a stack of improvement to come and off the return, he rates highly.
Long Shot
4 Astro King (Bet Now: $14.00) should appreciate coming back in trip. He ran over 2400m at Newmarket last time where he got back to near last in the run and although he did make up headway, he was never really threatening. He was jumping sharply in trip so with that run under the belt, it should hold him in good stead.
Back Me
9 Fox Journey (Bet Now: $5.00) on top for me in the get out. Sir Michael Stoute trained galloper that resumed with an absolute bang, bolting up from the front and giving nothing else a look in to win over 2400m at Newbury in a brilliant performance from the front. Ryan Moore could have ridden one for Willie Mullins but the fact he goes with this guy tells me he is flying.
Danger
8 Belloccio (Bet Now: $4.80) has found winning form and has the Willie Mullins polish so he commands respect. His last start win came in a jumps race where he wasn’t 100% clean with his jumping but his flat speed came to the fore and he was too good for them late in the piece. He’ll be strong late, stable is flying and he gets Buick.
Long Shot
16 My Mate Mozzie (Bet Now: $8.50) is a pretty sharp jumper so the grounding is there to run well fresh at 2800m. His last run came in a Group l jumps race during the Cheltenham Carnival where he didn’t quite measure up but was far from disgraced. Handles a dry deck, strong late and has a touch of quality about him.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 My Lyka
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Rosallion
LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 7 Twilight Calls
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