Ten races will be run and won at Newcastle on Saturday, headlined by The Coast (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Chris Waller loves to target these late 2YO races with a nice juvenile with eyes towards Brisbane and 1 Imperial Force (Bet Now: $3.30) does look a very nice juvenile. Beaten as an odds on pop on debut on the Kenso before going to Canterbury where he made an absolute mess of them and was dominant in the run to the line. He’s got eyes towards the JJ Atkins so keen to see how he goes with that in mind.
Danger
3 Sovereign Hill (Bet Now: $8.00) is a GaiBott trained juvenile that resumes. This guy debuted on Oct 11 at Warwick Farm when a dominant winner and he was impressive with his change up speed. He dodged the good races in the Summer/Autumn, has been kept on ice with Brisbane in mind and his trial work has been strong.
Long Shot
7 Point And Shoot (Bet Now: $8.00) is a key chance. Bjorn Baker trained colt that debuted at Rosehill a fortnight back. He got back to near last in the run, spotting those in front a start but I really liked the way he finished his race off in defeat behind Ikasara. He’ll love the rise to 1200m and with a more positive, will take beating.
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9 Oakfield Badger (Bet Now: $14.00) is a progressive four year old for Kristen Buchanan and rates highly. He resumed over 1000m at Taree where he jumped clean and landed outside the speed quite comfortably. From there, he was trucking and was always in control under Bullock, drawing clear late and was strong. He’s got plenty of room for improvement and up to 1200m, he’ll do me.
Danger
7 Navy Blood (Bet Now: $5.50) is a nice colt for Team Freedman that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since the Canberra Guineas in March when far from disgraced in defeat behind Xidaki. Two trials to get ready for his return and this isn’t a deep Midway, so for mine, he commands respect.
Long Shot
4 Rhythmic Pulse (Bet Now: $27.00) has run well at Midway level previously and can press forward, which is ideal for the Rosehill 1100m. He ran at the midweeks at Canterbury where he was ridden with a sit and he battled away well enough despite having his chance behind Curtis Island. If he lands on speed, he’ll take running down.
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12 Cool Duke… (Bet Now: $3.20) beware the unbeaten horse. 3/3 for Wayne Wilkes, the latest win being a romp at Tuncurry on a bog track where up/in was dynamite but even allowing for that, he was impressive. He’s got a good racing style, he’s tough, handles wet ground…likeable for sure against this lot.
Danger
6 Tanglewood (Bet Now: $4.00) is a nice horse for Todd Howlett that should take beating. Market kept him very safe in betting when resuming in the Highway two weeks ago at Rosehill and while he was safely held by Martini Mumma, he did close off to run second and the winner, potentially, is Stakes class, so that form clearly reads well for this.
Long Shot
Hard fit now and up to 1200m, 5 Zaru (Bet Now: $13.00) is dangerous. He resumed at Wyong and was a real eye catcher from the back before going to Rosehill where he got too far back and while he was never a threat, his finale was more than sound in defeat behind Martini Mumma. More positive ride, hard fit and up in trip, he’s a knockout hope.
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5 Fay’s Angels (Bet Now: $9.00) is a beauty for Karen Owen and I think has to be respected here. She is Big Dance qualified being a winner of the Taree Cup but she has really gone on with it and has established herself as a metro class mare. Bolted up on Anzac Day on the Kenso and yes, the race was set up for her, but she was dominant to and through the line, so 2100m here is no issue and for mine, is one of the hardest to beat.
Danger
8 Our Maryanne (Bet Now: $8.00) is a track/distance winner from two back and I think she becomes dangerous back to the scene of the crime after racing over 2400m on the Kenso on Anzac Day where she was near the speed and tried her guts out but 2400m at that level was a bridge too far. Back to this trip, she appeals.
Long Shot
11 Anderson Bridge (Bet Now: $8.50) has eyes on the QLD Derby so if that is to be the case, he’d want to be going close here. He comes through the Frank Packer at Flemington where he was solid in defeat but like most at that meeting, the conditions were too teasing. Hard to beat off prior efforts.
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9 Scarlet Oak (Bet Now: $2.30) for me. Chris Waller trained former Kiwi filly that made her Australian debut in the James Carr at Randwick on a bottomless deck and she tried her guts out but couldn’t quite see it through when second to stablemate and impressive winner Konasana. Fitter and up in trip, kind map, happy to be in her corner.
Danger
4 Nanas Wish (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Ciaron Maher trained mare that should appreciate a rise in trip. She ran over 1500m at Rosehill last time out and kept finding the line in a good effort behind Highlights. Up in trip, drops in depth, she’s likeable for sure.
Long Shot
5 Miss Hades (Bet Now: $8.50) is a filly heading in the right direction for Gary Portelli. Loved the way she put them away with class and authority to win fresh at Gosford before going to Rosehill where she was near the speed throughout and she tried her guts out but couldn’t quite finish the job when third to Southern Chilli. Jumps up in trip, but third up, hard fit…rates highly.
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I think the one missed in some places is 10 Not Usual Glorious (Bet Now: $9.00) for Travis Doudle. He has claims to being the best swimmer in Australia and his effort on speed at The Bool last Tuesday was more than credible behind Rolls, a track specialist. Up in trip is fine, lands near the front and will love a Heavy 10 surface. Great speck at odds.
Danger
Fitter and up to 2100m are two big ticks for the GaiBott stayer 7 Sir Lucan (Bet Now: $23.00). He resumed behind Let’srollthedice at Rosehill a fortnight back. He got back off the speed and didn’t really have change up speed but he stayed on and was sound in defeat. Better set up here I feel and with a more positive ride, will take beating.
Long Shot
11 Gan Teorainn (Bet Now: $26.00) is a very one paced type so the rise to 2100m does suit. She had a couple of runs at the mile before going to 1800m two weeks back at Rosehill where she got back and found the line well enough but was never really threatening behind Let’srollthedice. Up to 2100m, she gets her chance to get a win down under.
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14 Wategos (Bet Now: $5.50) has returned in super order and I am confident he can measure up here. Parr rode poorly on him IMO when resuming two weeks ago at Rosehill. He had the chance to get into a reasonable spot but drifted too far back and in an on pace dominated affair, he was never a factor but did make up good ground. Fitter and up in trip, more genuine tempo and more positive ride, he’ll take holding out.
Danger
16 Semillion (Bet Now: $4.00) hasn’t won in over two years but that said, I feel like this Team Hawkes galloper is nearing a win. He attempted to lead throughout in the VOBIS Sprint two weeks ago and credit to him, he gave a tremendous sight in front, but just couldn’t quite see it through and was nabbed late by Who Dares. Nearing a win, good racing style…commands respect.
Long Shot
3 Sinawann (Bet Now: $18.00) hasn’t been too bad this time in for Joe Pride and will be strong late. He ran three weeks ago in the Hall Mark at Randwick and was solid late but struggled to pick up in the conditions when fourth to a noted swimmer, Mazu. Hopefully the track won’t be as bad this time around and if within range, he has the finale to launch.
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9 Tavi Time (Bet Now: $2.20) is a horse I have plenty of time for. He was trained to be a 1400m horse for the Provincial Final and that just isn’t his caper. He is a 1600m-2000m horse I feel and he gets to the mile here after an eye catching effort in the Provincial Final after getting a mile back. Much better set up here and has a bit of class/quality about him.
Danger
3 Iknowstar (Bet Now: $6.50) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Nisbet probably went a touch too keen on him when racing at Rosehill last time and that cost him in the end, but credit to him, he stayed on and was only nabbed late by a nice horse, Waterford. If he leads and gets control, he’ll take running down.
Long Shot
1 Grebeni (Bet Now: $7.50) is in for a good prep. Ryan/Alexiou trained gelding that resumed at Rosehill two weeks back. He got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I really liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Waterford. Good improvement to come, can settle closer and still be effective at the end.
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6 Deep Rouge (Bet Now: $27.00) has had a few homes throughout her career but she does have a bit of quality about her. She resumed at Muswellbrook in her first run for Wayne Brown this prep and she was one of the eye catchers of the meeting, closing off with purpose when third to Upside. Fitter, she can be within range and launch at them late.
Danger
5 Passeggiata (Bet Now: $1.45) is a Bjorn Baker trained speed demon that resumes and is clearly suited to 900m at Newcastle given her jump/run style, but geez $1.35 is rock bottom. She can win, likely is the winner…but surely you’ll get a better price.
Long Shot
4 Our Bellagio Miss (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Team Price trained mare that comes here several weeks between runs since contesting the Birthday Card at Rosehill where she was outclassed but far from disgraced in defeat behind Chain Of Lightning. That form clearly reads well for this.
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12 Heuristic (Bet Now: $5.50) will do me in the get out. James Cummings trained three year old that resumed on Anzac Day on the Kenso where he got back off the speed and was chasing from the outset but he kept on and was pretty good in defeat behind Jedibeel. Good improvement to come, serious weight relief and loves wet ground.
Danger
5 Starman (Bet Now: $8.00) is a key chance. Chris Waller trained gelding that comes here two weeks between runs since racing over 1300m at Rosehill when just off the speed throughout and he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish the job behind Diamond Diesel. Improvement, he’s right in the mix.
Long Shot
10 Sir Ravanelli (Bet Now: $9.00) is a swimmer and will press forward. He resumed at the midweeks at Canterbury where he got back to near last in the run before working into the race and launching late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Curtis Island. He’s a knockout hope.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 9 Tavi Time
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 9 Scarlet Oak
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 10 Not Usual Glorious
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 3, 11, 14, 16
Leg Two: 9
Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 10
Leg Four: 5, 6, 8, 10, 12
$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful
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