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New Years Day racing in Melbourne will take place at Flemington. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

4 Garnacho (Bet Now: $5.50) is hard to beat here. He resumed in a Yarra Valley maiden and you had to be impressed with the way he put them away, getting back in the run but came with a brilliant finale to overhaul them and win impressively. Harder here, but off the return, I say he’s hard to beat.

Danger

1 Dom (Bet Now: $3.20) has class on his side and class will carry him a long way. He hasn’t raced since Aug 24 when somewhat on the plain side behind Evaporate, who of course went on to win at Stakes level and ran in the Cox Plate, so that form clearly reads well and 1400m fresh signals intent.

Long Shot

3 Zourain (Bet Now: $16.00) will jump on the bunny and take runnin down, as seen at The Valley where he led throughout, got front end control and was too good for them in a strong effort. 1400m is the slight query but if he gets a cheap time of it on sped, he’ll run a bold race.

Back Me

3 Enxuto (Bet Now: $3.90) doesn’t exactly win out of turn but he looks to have come back in really good order. He resumed over 1321m at Geelong where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, you had to like the way he finished his race off in defeat I thought behind New Sovereign. Fitter and up in trip, he’ll take beating.

Danger

6 Dream All Day (Bet Now: $2.05) has been strong in two runs back from a spell and commansd respect. Both have come over 1400m at Ballarat, winning first up before placing on Ballarat Cup Day when badly held trying to build the revs. Takes beating despite lcuk from the tricky draw.

Long Shot

4 The Negotiator (Bet Now: $15.00) is dangerous with his best. He ran over the mile at Seymour last time out where he got a fair way out of his ground but was tracking into the race with purpose. Unfortunately, he couldn’t get clear air at any stage and it ended up being an ugly watch. If the breaks go his way, he can win.

Back Me

2 Gronkowski (Bet Now: $11.00) comes back to 1200m after racing over 1400m at Werribee when off the speed and kept chasing in a pretty good effort in defeat behind Keep Your Cool. Back to 1200m, he’ll get back in the run off the speed and be strong at the end. He’ll do me in an open contest.

Danger

3 Trapeze Warrior (Bet Now: $4.80) has run well down the straight previously and brings the right form to give this a shake. He ran at Caulfield Heath last time and I don’t think much went right for him when midfield behind the very much in form Grand Larceny. 1200m, I think, is okay, and with a positive ride, takes beating.

Long Shot

6 Makalu (Bet Now: $34.00) is one I can entertain for exotics. He comes through the Thailess race from Caulfield Heath. He got back off the speed and was never really a factor when down the track. I don’t think he’s racing too bad this time in and can run top four.

Back Me

1 Munhamek (Bet Now: $18.00) has class on his side and I’ll bank on that getting him home. He resumed in The Supernova at Pakenham where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out. He got to last in the run and made up minor headway. He tends to save his best for Flemington and with upside/improvement, more genuine tempo, he can bounce back hard.

Danger

2 Running By (Bet Now: $5.00) is flying for Ciaron Maher. She comes through the Gold Bullion at Pakenham where she seemed to get every chance in the run and presented to win but just found one better in Modown. That was her first run in six weeks so with scope, she rates highly.

Long Shot

3 Roll On High (Bet Now: $9.50) is one for exotics. She seemed to have every chance in The Supernova at Pakenham and tried hard but just couldn’t quite finish the job behind Here To Shock. Track/distance winner and maps to get a sweet run in transit. Knockout chance.

Back Me

6 Both Sides Now (Bet Now: $3.00) is a very much in form mare for Ciaron Maher. She was too good for her key threat here, Zambezi Khan, at The Valley last time. She led throughout and though Zambezi Khan had her back and closed, this girl was too strong. If she gets the cheap lead again, she takes beating.

Danger

3 Zambezi Khan (Bet Now: $5.50) is flying for Team Payne and can win for sure. This mare ran over 1500m at The Valley last time out where she railed up, saved ground and presented to win early on in the straight but just found one better in all the way winner Both Sides Now. Hard fit now and up in trip, she is the main danger.

Long Shot

4 Served Cold (Bet Now: $18.00) is the interesting runner. She hasn’t raced since Nov 15 at The Valley where she got back and held up at times but that said, she had her chance and was pretty much on the plain side late in the piece. Blinkers are on and maps perfect, so don’t dismiss her.

Back Me

1 Muramasa (Bet Now: $3.00) for me in what looks a pretty strong edition of the Bagot. He ran in the Pakenham Cup last time where he took an age to get going but did wind up with purpose late, just missing out on the win when third to Goldman. He’ll love the rise to 2800m and has a good record at Flemington.

Danger

3 Interpretation (Bet Now: $8.00) is an intriguing runner. He hasn’t raced since the Melbourne Cup where he got back in the run and failed to come, finishing down the track in a plain effort given more was expected of him. He has been hot and cold in life down under but his best is clearly good enough.

Long Shot

6 Kirkeby (Bet Now: $41.00) comes to Melbourne after recent racing in Sydney. His latest run was at Randwick in the Christmas Cup. He was back off the speed and checked at times, so forgive and forget the run I say when down the track behind stablemate Kadavar. Lacks the class but I don’t think the trip will be an issue.

Back Me

11 Cotton Tree (Bet Now: $4.20) on top for me. Price/Kent trained gelding that resumed at Geelong and I thought found the line with purpose from off the speed when second to The Western Front. Good upside/improvement to come and with a positive ride, he takes beating.

Danger

8 Et Tu Brute (Bet Now: $6.00) has found winning form and he can go on with it again. That win came at Bendigo where he looked a good thing on paper and despite a few nervous moments in the run, class came to the fore and he was much too good. He can measure up here.

Long Shot

12 Lygon Street Luigi (Bet Now: $18.00) is a knockout chance with his best. His last couple of runs have come at Caulfield Heath, winning two back before a solid effort behind Bon Mistress after getting back off the speed. Gets in well after the claim and maps to do no work.

Back Me

7 Grand Larceny (Bet Now: $3.40) on top in what looks a two horse race. Team Hawkes trains this promising gelding, who won two back at The Valley despite a few nervous moments in the run. He then went to Caulfield Heath where he again had a few nervous moments but when it came to getting clear air, he got it and was strong late. No reason why he can’t win again.

Danger

4 Big Me (Bet Now: $3.60) is the key and I dare say only threat. Won like the moral he was when resuming on testing ground at Bendigo before going to The Valley where the 955m set up wasn’t really to his liking when a close up second to Major Share. Hard fit, he commands respect.

Long Shot

5 Rocket Tiger (Bet Now: $31.00) is a definite threat with his best. He ran at Randwick last time when off speed and kept chasing in a solid enough effort in defeat behind Disneck, who won again like a rocket on Saturday, so that form clearly reads well. Not dismissing him.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Grand Larceny

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Enxuto

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 1 Munhamek

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg Three: 8, 9, 11, 12

Leg Four: 4, 7

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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